Market Movements - November 10, 2025

[Andrew Postell]

Shutdown Turning Point

The Senate has taken a significant step towards ending the shutdown by advancing a short-term funding measure. In a rare show of bipartisanship, eight Democrats joined most Senate Republicans to push the bill to a final vote, happening this morning 10am CT on Capitol Hill.

This development is poised to make a serious impact throughout the economy. With such little visibility into key indicators this past month, the release of delayed economic data will be critical in shaping expectations for the remainder of the year. Assuming the government reopens this week, we'll get October CPI and jobless claims data this Thursday, and PPI, retail sales, and business inventories Friday. Now that we know a December rate cut is far from certain, this CPI report will be key in signaling whether policymakers lean towards holding rates steady or easing further. We can also likely look forward to less volatile rates and housing market confidence.

50 Year Mortgage

This weekend, the idea of a 50 year mortgage came to light as the FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced. It was met with widespread doubt, as critics argue it benefits big banks at the cost of the borrower. Longer mortgage terms mean slower equity accumulation, higher borrowing costs, and potential conflicts with legislation stemming from the 2008 financial crisis, setting the stage for a major debate if this idea comes to fruition. However, amidst a time of affordability challenges, high home prices, and elevated interest rates, the 50 year mortgage offers a solution in bringing first time home buyers into the market and lowering that monthly payment.

Tariff Dividend

Another new economic proposal, the $2,000 tariff dividend, was announced this weekend. It aims to redistribute US trade revenues to American citizens, excluding high-income earners, and is framed as a "reward for hardworking Americans" who support domestic production. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the plan is already under review, and dividends will likely come in the form of tax cuts, credits, or direct savings, emphasizing that the $2,000 figure represents the overall benefit to each qualifying American, not necessarily a lump sum payment. While many details remain unclear, the initiative could become one of the largest direct benefit programs ever tied to trade revenues.

Key Economic Data Releases this Week:

• Wednesday, November 12th: MBA Mortgage Apps
• Thursday, November 13th: Weekly Jobless Claims, CPI, Real Avg Hourly Earnings
• Friday, November 14th: Retail Sales, PPI