New York Recession & Job Losses Coming!?... Scary Chart Says YES!

[J. Martin]

The last 6 months of leading indicators spell bad news historically for the state of New York!!! Of course no one knows what will happen, and neither do I claim to. But damn!!! Look at those lines! Eerie..

The leading index is prepared for each state by the Philly Federal Reserve and uses payrolls, employee hours, earnings, housing starts, yield curve, etc to predict changes in economic growth. For the last 3 recessions over 25 years, every time the leading index has gone negative at the end of the boom, there has been a recession within a year and half, or we were already in one. Look at how well the leading index predicts jobs growth and losses historically - how it always bottoms out before job losses, and what tends to happens to jobs after steep plunges in the leading index at the end of an expansionary phase. Hmmm... I think I'm going to call up the Philly Fed and ask them about it..

Anyone in New York City (NYC) or New York State noticing anything locally?

Any economic or data junkies out there who might have an idea or perspective? @Account Closed , I know you've been looking closer at macro data around the New Year's refresh. Any thoughts..?

Is looking at charts a bunch of nonsense? Or does there appear to be some informational value between the relationship of the leading index and changes in employment?

Has anyone else seen some funky data that looks bad/foreboding? Or conversely, some data that looks fantastic on your area? The Bay is still cruising along on jobs and CA on the leading index. I'll keep my eye out though!