HEY FELLAS! WOULD YOU MAKE THIS DEAL???

[Joe Ward]

Hey guys, just wanted a your opinions if you guys would jump on this deal or walk. I am a new investor, right now I have one other single family home that I just finished re-habbing and renting. It worked out pretty good cashed out a bit and still have a little cash flow per month along with 20% equity, but anyways that's not what this is about.

This is about a nice 3-flat in Elmwood park which in a nice "basically all white" italian suburb just outside of Chicago. I put my offer in on it as a short sale for $300,000 and won it. Last time the building sold was in 2006 for $519,000 which I know is besides the point and seems quite over inflated, but I figured I would throw it in. It is fully rented right now with gross rents of $3,000 monthly or $36000 annually. I may be able to raise rents a little but then again maybe I shouldn't. I have just finished jumping through 1,000 hoops and finally am good on my loan. It appraised at $295,000 and am good for a 75% loan of that number at 6.125%. So I figured my total PITI is about $2025 monthly or $24,275 annually. I am guessing (remember I am new at this) my water, vacancy, maintenance and misc labor to be about $425 monthly or about $5000 anually (although I know some of this is speculative). So basically what do you guys think? I mean I will basically be out of pocket about $80,000 or so which the money isn't a problem I still have more to invest in other real estate. I mean the annual cash flow doesn't seem that great on the $80,000 maybe 8% annual return on investment. But then I am also considering my principal pay down per year and mainly banking on this sucker appreciating back to at least $400,000 over the next 5 or 6 years. Anyways any help would be great. I should be closing at the end of the month if I go through with it which I am planning as of right now. Thanks fellas for your input and suggestions. Please feel free to ask anything I may have left out. THANKS!!!

[Jon Holdman]

Paying $300K for $3000 a month in rent is a terrible deal. You have to do better than that to make a profit.

Paying $300K for a building that appraises at $295K is a terrible deal.

Here's how I would evaluate this deal:

Price: $300K
down: $75K
Loan: $225K
Payment: $1367 (P&I only, 6.125%, 30 years)

Rent: $3000
Expenses: $1500 (see posts in Rental Property forum about the "50% rule")
NOI: $1500
Cash flow: $133 (hey, at least its positive!
Cash flow: $1595/year
Cash on cash return: 2%

That's a terrible deal. You could put your $75K down payment into a bank CD and make more than that, and never deal with a tenant!

I think its worth no more than $200K. That would give you $7,063 a year in true cash flow with your 25% down payment for a 14% cash on cash return. That also gives you about 33% in paper equity.

If you're managing it yourself, your take will be higher because you're not paying a PM. But you will earn that additional increment of income. That should net you another $3500-4000 each year.

For this property to be worth $400K in five years you need annual appreciation of 6%. Possible, but highly unlikely. More likely, IMHO for it to be worth $300K in five years than $400K. The highest possible value I'd give it in five years would be 3% appreciation driven by inflation. That would make it worth about $350. After sales costs, that would net you about $322K after sales costs (assuming no seller concessions, which I'd guess you're getting on your purchase, and if you're not, you should.) After paying back the $305 in purchase and closing costs that nets you a whopping $17K profit.

I'd find some why to escape this deal and find a better one.