Realtor.com 2018 forecast for Top 100 Cities, see your city rank?

[Terry Lao]

Realtor.com just released their 2018 Forecast for Top 100 cities, see where your city ranks against others. Ranked by sales growth and price growth.  Forecast to include increase inventory, interest rates going up, 2.5% growth nationally, and other leading indicators.

Which city do you like? Why?

Terry

Link https://research.realtor.com/2018-national-housing...

Summary of Top 100 list below.

Top 100 Largest U.S. Metros Ranked by Forecasted 2018 Sales and Price Growth

Rank	Metro	2018 Sales Growth	2018 Price Growth
1	Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.	4.90	6.90
2	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas	6.02	5.57
3	Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.	5.47	6.00
4	Stockton-Lodi, Calif.	4.55	6.43
5	Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.	3.00	7.00
6	Salt Lake City, Utah	4.62	4.50
7	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.	5.98	3.02
8	Colorado Springs, Colo	3.12	5.65
9	Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.	1.00	7.67
10	Tulsa, Okla.	7.54	1.02
11	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.	2.34	6.21
12	Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.	3.50	4.97
13	Austin-Round Rock, Texas	4.04	4.42
14	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.	3.10	5.28
15	Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.	7.00	1.37
16	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.	1.75	6.54
17	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.	1.24	6.88
18	Toledo, Ohio	5.16	2.95
19	Columbia, S.C.	5.07	3.00
20	Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.	1.00	7.00
21	Jacksonville, Fla.	4.73	3.20
22	Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.	5.18	2.62
23	Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.	3.72	3.97
24	Akron, Ohio	5.89	1.70
25	North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.	3.00	4.50
26	Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.	3.50	4.00
27	Worcester, Mass.-Conn.	3.77	3.68
28	Raleigh, N.C.	1.63	5.77
29	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.	1.38	6.00
30	Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.	2.96	4.25
31	Boise City, Idaho	2.00	5.00
32	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.	2.50	4.37
33	Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.	2.80	4.00
34	Madison, Wis.	1.72	5.05
35	Albuquerque, N.M.	2.92	3.71
36	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas	2.24	4.19
37	Winston-Salem, N.C.	3.00	3.21
38	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.	0.52	5.66
39	Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.	1.27	4.89
40	Fresno, Calif.	1.29	4.81
41	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.	0.94	5.14
42	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.	1.17	4.77
43	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.	3.66	2.26
44	Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.	2.29	3.62
45	Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.	2.50	3.34
46	Tucson, Ariz.	3.00	2.71
47	San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.	2.51	3.19
48	Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.	3.01	2.50
49	Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.	2.50	3.00
50	Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio	3.00	2.48
51	Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.	3.00	2.42
52	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas	2.38	3.00
53	Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.	3.64	1.69
54	New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.	1.16	4.15
55	Jackson, Miss.	0.00	5.30
56	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.	1.40	3.82
57	Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.	2.55	2.64
58	Pittsburgh, Pa.	3.53	1.62
59	Oklahoma City, Okla.	1.49	3.51
60	Portland-South Portland, Maine	5.00	0.00
61	Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla	1.00	3.99
62	El Paso, Texas	2.69	2.24
63	Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.	0.00	4.93
64	Knoxville, Tenn.	2.00	2.92
65	Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.	4.12	0.57
66	Bakersfield, Calif.	1.00	3.61
67	Urban Honolulu, Hawaii	1.43	3.11
68	Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa	3.20	1.19
69	Greensboro-High Point, N.C.	1.34	2.97
70	Springfield, Mass.	1.24	3.00
71	New Orleans-Metairie, La.	2.00	2.24
72	Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.	1.47	2.32
73	Wichita, Ks.	2.23	1.49
74	Richmond, Va.	2.68	1.02
75	Columbus, Ohio	0.05	3.58
76	Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.	1.00	2.61
77	Rochester, N.Y.	1.56	2.02
78	Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.	4.46	-1.05
79	Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.	0.75	2.55
80	Dayton, Ohio	3.01	0.19
81	Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.	1.37	1.82
82	Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa.	1.18	1.81
83	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.	3.78	-1.04
84	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.	0.00	2.57
85	Syracuse, N.Y.	0.00	2.57
86	Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.	0.00	2.48
87	Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.	0.48	1.82
88	New Haven-Milford, Conn.	2.96	-0.67
89	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md-W.V.	0.00	2.25
90	Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa	0.00	2.18
91	Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.	-2.74	4.92
92	San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas	0.37	1.52
93	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.	-3.48	4.98
94	Baton Rouge, La.	0.00	1.50
95	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.	-1.88	2.99
96	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.	-2.10	3.09
97	Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.	3.49	-2.53
98	Kansas City, Mo-Kan.	0.00	-0.12
99	St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.	0.00	-2.83
100	Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.	-0.35	-2.87

Realtor.com’s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead. The forecast result is a projection for annual total sales increase (total 2018 existing-home sales vs. 2017) and annual median price increase (2018 median existing-home sales price vs. 2017).

[Kyle J.]

It's an interesting list, but some of the commenters are way too focused on just one (Stockton) of the 100 cities on this list.  Most of them don't understand Stockton, or even this list.  I don't live in Stockton but I own rentals there, and it's very easy to see how Stockton ranks #4. 

Stockton has good and bad areas, just like any other city.  Are there nicer areas in Sacramento or Oakland (or wherever), yes!  Are there worse areas in Sacramento or Oakland (or wherever), yes!  You just need to know your market.

But really that's irrelevant for the purpose of this post.  The list isn't saying Stockton is a nice place to live, or that people from the Bay Area want to live there, or the people are nice or whatever else you think it's saying.  All it's saying is that in one very short window of time (2017-2018) the cities on this list are expected (not guaranteed) to have a certain sales and price growth.  With that in mind, I can definitely see why Stockton is on the list. 

Houses I bought there a few years back for $75-105k are now easily all worth $200-250k each.  You think Stockton really can't achieve another 6.43% price growth by 2018?

Again, I'm not trying to convince anyone on the benefits of Stockton or any other city on this list because I don't care where anyone else invests.  In fact, that's only one city I invest in and if things went bad there I'd have no problem pulling out and changing cities.  But the reality is those houses do very well for me and others who invest there.

But ultimately you just accept the chart for what it is and not read too much into it.  Interesting post/discussion though.