Realtor.com 2018 forecast for Top 100 Cities, see your city rank?

40 Replies

Realtor.com just released their 2018 Forecast for Top 100 cities, see where your city ranks against others. Ranked by sales growth and price growth.  Forecast to include increase inventory, interest rates going up, 2.5% growth nationally, and other leading indicators.

Which city do you like? Why?

Terry

Link https://research.realtor.com/2018-national-housing...

Summary of Top 100 list below.

Top 100 Largest U.S. Metros Ranked by Forecasted 2018 Sales and Price Growth

RankMetro2018 Sales Growth2018 Price Growth
1Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.4.906.90
2Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas6.025.57
3Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.5.476.00
4Stockton-Lodi, Calif.4.556.43
5Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.3.007.00
6Salt Lake City, Utah4.624.50
7Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.5.983.02
8Colorado Springs, Colo3.125.65
9Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.1.007.67
10Tulsa, Okla.7.541.02
11Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.2.346.21
12Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.3.504.97
13Austin-Round Rock, Texas4.044.42
14Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.3.105.28
15Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.7.001.37
16Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.1.756.54
17Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.1.246.88
18Toledo, Ohio5.162.95
19Columbia, S.C.5.073.00
20Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.1.007.00
21Jacksonville, Fla.4.733.20
22Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.5.182.62
23Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.3.723.97
24Akron, Ohio5.891.70
25North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.3.004.50
26Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.3.504.00
27Worcester, Mass.-Conn.3.773.68
28Raleigh, N.C.1.635.77
29Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.1.386.00
30Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.2.964.25
31Boise City, Idaho2.005.00
32San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.2.504.37
33Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.2.804.00
34Madison, Wis.1.725.05
35Albuquerque, N.M.2.923.71
36Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas2.244.19
37Winston-Salem, N.C.3.003.21
38Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.0.525.66
39Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.1.274.89
40Fresno, Calif.1.294.81
41San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.0.945.14
42Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.1.174.77
43Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.3.662.26
44Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.2.293.62
45Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.2.503.34
46Tucson, Ariz.3.002.71
47San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.2.513.19
48Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.3.012.50
49Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.2.503.00
50Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio3.002.48
51Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.3.002.42
52McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas2.383.00
53Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.3.641.69
54New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.1.164.15
55Jackson, Miss.0.005.30
56Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.1.403.82
57Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.2.552.64
58Pittsburgh, Pa.3.531.62
59Oklahoma City, Okla.1.493.51
60Portland-South Portland, Maine5.000.00
61Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla1.003.99
62El Paso, Texas2.692.24
63Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.0.00 4.93
64Knoxville, Tenn.2.002.92
65Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.4.120.57
66Bakersfield, Calif.1.003.61
67Urban Honolulu, Hawaii1.433.11
68Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa3.201.19
69Greensboro-High Point, N.C.1.342.97
70Springfield, Mass.1.243.00
71New Orleans-Metairie, La.2.002.24
72Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.1.472.32
73Wichita, Ks.2.231.49
74Richmond, Va.2.681.02
75Columbus, Ohio0.053.58
76Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.1.002.61
77Rochester, N.Y.1.562.02
78Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.4.46-1.05
79Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.0.752.55
80Dayton, Ohio3.010.19
81Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.1.371.82
82Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa.1.181.81
83Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.3.78-1.04
84Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.0.00 2.57
85Syracuse, N.Y.0.00 2.57
86Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.0.00 2.48
87Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.0.481.82
88New Haven-Milford, Conn.2.96-0.67
89Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md-W.V.0.00 2.25
90Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa0.00 2.18
91Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.-2.744.92
92San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas0.371.52
93Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.-3.484.98
94Baton Rouge, La.0.00 1.50
95Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.-1.882.99
96Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.-2.103.09
97Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.3.49-2.53
98Kansas City, Mo-Kan.0.00 -0.12
99St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.0.00 -2.83
100Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.-0.35-2.87

Realtor.com’s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead. The forecast result is a projection for annual total sales increase (total 2018 existing-home sales vs. 2017) and annual median price increase (2018 median existing-home sales price vs. 2017).

Where does your city rank?

Agree or disagree?

Terry

Need people to chime in on their city and their prediction for 2018.

Terry

I have commercial and residential properties in # 41 and #76.  I cannot predict the future but my sentiments do reflect those numbers based on what I hear on market conditions.

@Paul Choi

Since you are from Pleasanton, and close to #4 Stockton, what is your view on Stockton? Would you invest in Stockton?

Terry

@Terry Lao I've looked at the Stockton market for the past few months and had an agent there helping me. The only places I would consider were multiunit properties near UOP - properties and neighborhood was better, constant flow of student tenants, etc. Everywhere outside of that vicinity was a crap shoot. Run down areas, Class C or lower, houses that required way too much work, etc. Add to the fact that Stockton property prices gets hit hard during down markets. I just could not see price supports for SFH in varying markets. At least in the Bay Area, there are strong job opportunities and in Sacramento, government entities to support the jobs and people from the Bay Area migrating to Sacramento because they could not afford to live in the Bay Area. Stockton, IMO had none of these. To buy a house in Stockton and commute to SF Bay Area or Sacramento is grueling with the traffic. I ultimately decided not to invest there.

my only problem with that is #99, so they only count the city of StL? Cause the county is 3x larger. And North and South city have completely different outlooks imho. We'll see. 

@Paul Choi

I saw recent news article saying Stockton appreciated 90% over past 5 years.  I guess you would have to bought in 2012, at rock bottom. The buyers are coming from the bay area who could not afford the $1M home. You can easily get home for $250-300k. UOP is nice private college, but a lot of older brick buildings. UOP used to have a football team, long time ago.

I grew up in Stockton, and only back to see mom. You would have to time the market for investment. Buy and hold is not good, because there will be a downturn. When bay area and silicon valley sneezes, Stockton catches the cold. 

The areas that still look okay, are March Lane and Quail Lakes. Also, north of Hammer Lane seems like the trend. 

Just my .02 cents from growing up in Stockton.

Terry

I agree with @Donald S. . IMO, the "St. Louis Market" i.e. the metro area as a whole, has really been thriving the past 2-3 years with prices going way up almost across the board. Now if you count north city and south city the same and then fold in the east side (it says MO/IL), but don't add St. Louis County as well, then I think that's the only way you get a negative number there for 2018. St. Louis political boundaries are so screwy though that these national statistical lists never seem to do us any favors. 

It would be hard to have sales growth if inventory is low like LA (97). If you think Stockton (4) is more profitable long term because of more sales growth of existing homes in 2018 this would be illogical thinking imo. Otherwise if you are a realtor this might be a concern to say the least. 

Good luck!

@Matt R.

Growing up in Stockton, I was say short term okay, not long term as will sink when bay area starts to go down. However, bay area has the jobs, and only people who cannot afford bay area will make the crazy commute. Also, bay area will not take such a big hit as Stockton did in recession 2008.

However, I'm vested in #1 Las Vegas, which bought in 2013 and 2014, 2016, already seen the increase and still going up. Nice to see LV take top spot, as only confirmed making the right choice. Its only a list and people have varying opinions.

Terry

@Terry Lao what kind of property you invest in Las Vegas, SFH or MFH? How's the cash flow aspect? Thanks!

@Bing Lin

I like 4plexs in Las Vegas. I bought a few years ago when going for 170k, and 205k. Cashflowing about 800 per month, and ROI about 10-14%. I did not depend much on appreciation as units are more cashflow. Now, the same 4plexs are going for 250-270k.

With all said, Realtor.com is forecasting Las Vegas as the #1 city for sales and appreciation growth. Whether Las Vegas comes in #1 or #10, I already doubled, and tripled my money. Still a good investment if you bought now, and I think will continue for 2-3 years. Just in time when the Raiders finish their $1.9B stadium and begin play in new stadium. There is now NFL, NHL, and WNBA. Only matter of time before NBA and MLB comes to Las Vegas.

Just my two cents.

Terry

Interesting to see Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario at #38 & Bakersfield at #66 both markets i'm interested in getting into 

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I'm still confused how Stockton is rank #4?  I grew up in stockton and still go back there because all my best friends and some family live there.  They all would commute to livermore, tracy, and even sacramento for jobs.  I won't mind investing in stockton if given a good reason/price but i won't bank on appreciation though. I guess i will do some more research on this and ask around

@Youdo Thirakul

Stockton is ranked #4 because its one of the cities that lost the most home value, thus has the most to gain back. SF bay area did not lose that much value due to proximity of jobs. People who bought in Stockton probably worked in the bay area and did the long commute. Once their jobs were gone, cannot afford payment, and went bankrupt. 

And I grew up in Stockton for 18 years. Not much changed.

Terry

@Terry Lao so would you invest in stockton ? I wonder who is actively investing in stockton and the surrounding areas, i would love to hear what they say.  Even if i lose my job, i don't know if i would run back to stockton, there so much places in between i would live and fee better about especially coming from the bay area. Yeah stockton is stockton, i still go back there just because i have so many memories there and of course friends, if they leave i probably won't even go visit. 

@Youdo Thirakul

I'm in Southern California now, and invest in Las Vegas due to the close proximity, about 3.5 hours drive. If I did, then I would have to time the bottom and sell at peak. Right now and maybe next 2 years would be okay. Then all bets off, as silicon valley will go through cuts. My brother and sister are in SF and Cupertino, and doing very well. If they stayed in Stockton, would never be the millionaires they are now.

Stockton is farming area, blue collar, and will stay that way unless Amazon makes Stockton the choice for HQ2.

Terry

It's an interesting list, but some of the commenters are way too focused on just one (Stockton) of the 100 cities on this list.  Most of them don't understand Stockton, or even this list.  I don't live in Stockton but I own rentals there, and it's very easy to see how Stockton ranks #4. 

Stockton has good and bad areas, just like any other city.  Are there nicer areas in Sacramento or Oakland (or wherever), yes!  Are there worse areas in Sacramento or Oakland (or wherever), yes!  You just need to know your market.

But really that's irrelevant for the purpose of this post.  The list isn't saying Stockton is a nice place to live, or that people from the Bay Area want to live there, or the people are nice or whatever else you think it's saying.  All it's saying is that in one very short window of time (2017-2018) the cities on this list are expected (not guaranteed) to have a certain sales and price growth.  With that in mind, I can definitely see why Stockton is on the list. 

Houses I bought there a few years back for $75-105k are now easily all worth $200-250k each.  You think Stockton really can't achieve another 6.43% price growth by 2018?

Again, I'm not trying to convince anyone on the benefits of Stockton or any other city on this list because I don't care where anyone else invests.  In fact, that's only one city I invest in and if things went bad there I'd have no problem pulling out and changing cities.  But the reality is those houses do very well for me and others who invest there.

But ultimately you just accept the chart for what it is and not read too much into it.  Interesting post/discussion though.

I'm not sure I believe that Omaha will have no sales growth but 2.18% price growth.

Also Kansas City, Indianapolis, and St Louis have seen price appreciation for a while now but they are expected to have price depreciation in 2018???

@Kyle J.

Yes, I agree, the top 100 forecast is for sales and appreciation growth. Las Vegas and Stockton share similar drops during the 2008 recession. Drops that were more than other cities. Now, with the most lost, you have the most to gain. I believe Stockton and Las Vegas never regained or past their peaks compared to bay area or southern California.

Stockton is emotional for me, and emotion and logic should not mix.

Terry

@Kyle J. thanks for you're input. I totally agree with you, you have to know the area and invest in it to know why its on the list which is why I wanted to hear from someone like you, who is investing in stockton.  I haven't look in stockton market because I'm so far and all my friends that live there aren't interested in real estate like me.  

@Terry Lao yeah emotion and logic don't mix, don't do it. lol 

@Anthony Gayden

A forecast is just as the name states. Now, you will have to wait until 2018 is over. The other way is to look at the reputation the online website Realtor.com has.............and in my opinion pretty good.

Below is the criteria they used, and the data come from your local realtor association. For example, my rentals are in Las Vegas, and the sales and median home price comes from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.

And I would imagine Anthony, your data comes from KC, Indianapolis, and St. Louis Association of Realtors. 

Terry

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