J Scott's Recession Proof Real Estate Investing: Ask Me Anything!

97 Replies

Hey everyone!

BP has just released my latest book:  RECESSION PROOF REAL ESTATE INVESTING.

It is all about how the economy works (starting with the very basics and working up from there), economic cycles and how we as real estate investors can design and pivot our investing businesses around shifting economic circumstances.

The book not only talks about how to modify your investing strategies and tactics during a downturn in the economy, but how to change up your business during EVERY phase of the economic cycle.  It also talks about what you should be doing months and years in advance of economic shifts to prepare the eventuality of the economy changing.

If anyone has any questions about the book, or questions about the economy, economic cycles or investing strategies/tactics (that aren't covered in the book), here's the place to ask them!  

Happy to try to answer any questions you might have...

Hey J,

All of the podcasts you've done have been great!  Thanks for the consistently useful info.  I believe in your most recent podcast, you were talking about economic cycles.  You mentioned that, historically, we are overdue for some kind of downturn looking at a 7-8 year cycle.  You also mentioned a 70 year cycle and how we are overdue for a downturn by that metric as well.  These two cycles falling close to each other being really bad.

Are you able to elaborate more on this?  This is the Great Depression and the Recession downturn cycles coming to meet?

Originally posted by @Kyle Koppenheffer :

Hey J,

All of the podcasts you've done have been great!  Thanks for the consistently useful info.  I believe in your most recent podcast, you were talking about economic cycles.  You mentioned that, historically, we are overdue for some kind of downturn looking at a 7-8 year cycle.  You also mentioned a 70 year cycle and how we are overdue for a downturn by that metric as well.  These two cycles falling close to each other being really bad.

Are you able to elaborate more on this?  This is the Great Depression and the Recession downturn cycles coming to meet?

Hey Kyle,

I talk about this in a lot of detail in the book, but here's the high level overview...

There are lots of different economic cycles that we see in the US, but there are three that are going to be most impactful to those of us in the real estate investing world:

1.  The Business Cycle:  This is the most economic cycle we most think of when we think of the economy going up and down.  Historically, it lasts (cycles) an average of about 6 years, though we're currently 11 years in to this one (the longest in history);

2.  The Real Estate Cycle:  This one is a bit nebulous (not all economists buy into it), and (despite the name) probably has the least affect on us as investors.  This cycle is impacted by land prices specifically, and has been pretty consistent at lasting (cycling) an average of about every 18 years.

3.  The Long-Term Debt Cycle:  This is the scary one.  It's predicated on the fact that at the end of each economic cycle, consumers and companies end with a little bit more debt than the previous cycle.  Eventually, this debt gets overwhelming, and we see a massive economic downturn.  This one occurs about every 75-100 years, and was the cause of the Great Depression.


As you pointed out, when these cycles coincide on their downturns, the result can be very bad.  This is what happened in 2008 with the business cycle and the real estate cycle.  They both hit their historic downturn simultaneously, and because they happened at the same time, we saw a much bigger downturn than we likely otherwise would have had it been just one or the other.  Couple that with the mortgage crisis, and 2008 was pretty bad.

Most economists don't think that 2008 was the downturn of the long-term debt cycle...which is scary...because that means that this one is still coming, likely in the next decade or two, if not sooner. 

Again, in the book, I break these cycles down into a lot more detail -- what causes them, what they've looked like historically, how to predict them, etc.  Including a lot sources of data you can track and follow to stay on top of them!

Interesting topic, I will give your book a read! If you had to summarize the main point(s) of the book what would it be? Buy for long term cash flow, long-term debt and have adequate reserves?

Originally posted by @Austin Hendrickson :

Interesting topic, I will give your book a read! If you had to summarize the main point(s) of the book what would it be? Buy for long term cash flow, long-term debt and have adequate reserves?

Hey Austin,

The book is basically broken up into three parts:

1.  A crash course in economics -- why the economy works the way it does, the various economic cycles that we see in the United States and how they affect us as investors, and a detailed overview of the four main phases of the economic cycle that we care about the most.  

2.  A discussion of each of the main investing strategies that are available to us, when each should be used throughout the economic cycle to generate relatively easy profits and when each should be avoided because it's difficult to make profits and/or it's high risk.

3.  A deep dive into each of the 4 main phases of the economic cycle, where we talk about:  How to predict when we are entering (or close to entering) that phase; what specific tactics to employ and avoid during that phase; and what we should be doing during that phase to prepare for the next phase in the cycle.

Each phase of the cycle is going to require different strategies and tactics to maximize profit and minimize risk.  

Because the book covers nearly a dozen investing strategies and hundreds of tactics across four different phases of the economic cycle, unfortunately I don't think I can summarize the takeaways from the book in just a few paragraphs.

Is there a tool that you know of where I can find a list of people with Tax liens? I don't want the foreclosure list just the the tax liens info before it gets to foreclosure. But I cant figure out how to find this. 

Originally posted by @Hallie Cranford :

Is there a tool that you know of where I can find a list of people with Tax liens? I don't want the foreclosure list just the the tax liens info before it gets to foreclosure. But I cant figure out how to find this. 

Hey Hallie -

I would prefer not to derail the topic of the thread -- I think this is a better question for you to pose in the other forums...

Hey J,

I happen to have watched your recent podcast as well and I thought it was very informative!  I was wondering what you predict will happen in the next 10-15 years as the baby boomers start to retire and will basically cause our county to borrow so much money that we will be paying around 4 trillion on interest alone, which is about how much we make a year).  What do you think will happen to our economy?  Higher taxes?  I personally have no ideas because I don’t think our government, with the all of its politics, will take away socially security.  I mean I just can’t see it happening.  And I mean we are already some 21 trillion in debt right now.  So i’m Interested in what you think our economic future looks like?  And what would happen to RE in a major depression?  (Please correct me on any of these numbers. I’m not a economist, hence the questions). 

Thank you

I see multi-family pricing at an all time.  In my major market, an increasing number of buyers are out of State.  Local operators are on the sidelines for new acquisitions.

Originally posted by @Andrew Wright :

Hey J,

I happen to have watched your recent podcast as well and I thought it was very informative!  I was wondering what you predict will happen in the next 10-15 years as the baby boomers start to retire and will basically cause our county to borrow so much money that we will be paying around 4 trillion on interest alone, which is about how much we make a year).  What do you think will happen to our economy?  Higher taxes?  I personally have no ideas because I don’t think our government, with the all of its politics, will take away socially security.  I mean I just can’t see it happening.  And I mean we are already some 21 trillion in debt right now.  So i’m Interested in what you think our economic future looks like?  And what would happen to RE in a major depression?  (Please correct me on any of these numbers. I’m not a economist, hence the questions). 

Thank you

These are all good questions, though unfortunately, I don't think anyone knows the answers (I certainly don't).  There are lots of interesting theories though...  Here are some general thoughts and ideas on where things could go...

I read an interesting paper last year put out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that hypothesized that the national debt can pretty much grow infinitely without destabilizing the economy or ever causing a fiscal collapse.  And the paper actually makes sense, ASSUMING that we can continue to grow GDP at a rate that outpaces the interest we're paying on that debt.  In other words, as long as the economy stays strong and interest rates stay low, the national deficit can grow a lot higher than it currently is.

So, if that theory is true, the debt isn't as precarious and as big of an immediate risk as we all assume.

Now, that said, I think we can all agree that growing the deficit indefinitely shouldn't be a Plan A.  Ultimately, it would be much better/safer if we could stem the growing deficit.  Obviously, this can be achieved in one of two ways -- cut spending, increase revenue, or both.  

Unfortunately, we don't seem to have anyone on either side of the political aisle right now who really cares to do either of those things. So, the debt will continue to rise until there is some impetus for us to fix it -- the only question is what will that impetus be and will it be soon enough that it can really be fixed or whether that comes at a time that's too late?  

Personally, I think that at some point the debt is going to get so high that foreign investors are going to lose confidence in the dollar, are going to stop buying our currency, which will lead to a loss of confidence in our bond and equity markets, which will lead to a major economic downturn -- likely much worse than what we've seen in the past 75 years.

When this happens, there will come some tough choices -- we good have to cut a lot of mandatory programs, like social security, medicare and welfare.  We could default on some/all of our debt and basically take our economy back to square one.  We could massively raise taxes (in addition to cutting spending) and destroy our standard of living.

I don't know...but none of the options seem very good.  Ultimately, we're going to have to hope that either someone in government takes the reigns and cuts the spending or that the IMF is right about the fact that we can grow our debt forever.  Unfortunately, I'm not confident about either of those.

Originally posted by @Brian Ploszay :

I see multi-family pricing at an all time.  In my major market, an increasing number of buyers are out of State.  Local operators are on the sidelines for new acquisitions.

Doesn't sound like there's a question here, but I certainly agree this is the case in many markets, especially most primary and secondary markets.

Keep in mind, this makes sense for this point in the cycle -- as a long economic expansion grinds on (moving towards the top of the economic cycle), interest rates tend to be low, which means that investors are willing to accept low returns on cash flowing properties (when interest rates are low, "safe" investments like savings accounts, bonds, CDs, etc. don't generate much return, so investors are happy with real estate at returns that are just a little higher than interest rates).  

Investors willing to accept low returns means cap rates (the typical rate of return on a rental property) are going to be low.  

And when cap rates are low, property values will be high (cap rates and values are negatively correlated).

In the next phase of the cycle (as we get to the peak of the cycle), inflation increases and interest rates are pushed higher by the Fed.  As interest rates rise, cap rates will rise as well, and values will tend to fall.

In other words, for those who are interested in multi-family and other types of buy-and-hold real estate, things *will* get better...

(And if that synopsis didn't make sense, it's explained step-by-step in the book in a way that will...  :)

That theory makes since on paper, but I can’t see our GDP growing at the rate our debt is.  

I agree with you though, eventually we will face a much worse depression if Simone doesn’t reduce expenditures or increase taxes.  

I could talk economics all day.  Thank you for you feedback!  I love asking the tuff questions and I’ll have to give your book a read to prepare for this upcoming downturn.  I’m saving every dime at the moment, so that I can invest when this crash does hit.

One last quick question that just came to mind.  In a crash, I know that the expensive $300k + properties depreciate like crazy, but do the $30K-$75K properties deprecate too? Or do they just depreciate less?

Thanks you again for the amazing response! 

Hey J,

Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?

Originally posted by @Andrew Wright :

That theory makes since on paper, but I can’t see our GDP growing at the rate our debt is. 

I wouldn't have thought so either.  But, according to data in the paper, since 1880 and across 6 "advanced economies," federal borrowing rates have been an average of 1.7% lower than nominal GDP.  Over shorter periods, there is more fluctuation, but even since 1960, federal borrowing rates have been .8% lower than NGDP.

So, historically at least, growth surpassing fed borrowing rates hasn't been an issue...


One last quick question that just came to mind.  In a crash, I know that the expensive $300k + properties depreciate like crazy, but do the $30K-$75K properties deprecate too? Or do they just depreciate less?

A couple things here:

1.  $300K could be expensive in one market and cheap in another.  So, instead of talking about $300K versus $30K properties, it's better to talk about median prices, and properties that are above or below the median.

2.  Typically, we see a slow down first in properties well above the median price point in any given market.  High-end properties in a given market will stall before the rest of the market (this is because buyers don't want to over-extend themselves).  Next will be properties well below the median price in the market (this is because these properties tend to be geared towards those first affected by a changing economy and they are also the first to be affected by tightening lending rules).  Finally, the homes right around median value will start to be affected.

3.  In a typical recession, values will fall along with transaction volume -- in other words, prices will drop at the same time as housing inventory increases.  We're seeing a weird thing today -- inventory is increasing while prices aren't falling nearly as fast in most markets.  Lots of potential reasons for this, but a good reminder that every cycle is going to be a little bit different and unique.

4.  Land costs tends to drop in value more than improvements (actually buildings), so we tend to see greater drops in housing where land values are disproportionately high.  In other words, if you build a $300K house on a $100K lot and another on a $900K lot, the value of the property on the $900K lot will typically drop more than the value of the property on the $100K lot, simply because more of it is land value.

Originally posted by @Andrew Angerer :

Hey J,

Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?

I talk a lot about this in the book, but here are my general thoughts...

A lot of real estate investors who have come along since 2008 tend to think about real estate being the root cause of any market downtown -- in 2008, the mortgage crisis destroyed the economy and they assume this is how it typically works.  So, they judge the strength of the market (both real estate and the economy) by looking at real estate data and statistics and saying, "Real estate is strong...all is good!" or "Real is weak...all is bad!"

But, in actuality, for most recessions, real estate isn't a cause.  Real estate is just the unlucky economic sector that gets dragged along because other parts of the economy are struggling.  In 2001, it was the tech bubble that lead the downturn.  In the late 80s, is was the S&L crisis.  In the 70s, it was oil that caused negative ripples through the economy.  

In most cases, real estate goes down during a recession not because there are systemic issues in the real estate market (like in 2008) but because the economy is crap, interest rates are high, consumers are overloaded with debt, people are losing jobs, etc.  No matter how sound the real estate market might be, if these other things are happening, real estate is going to get hurt because homeowners are struggling to pay their bills and renters aren't in a position to buy.

So, looking at today's housing market and saying, "All is good because real estate looks good..." is not sound economic forecasting.  Real estate is a "lagging indicator," meaning that it's going to look good even as the economy turns down.  A few months after the economy starts to suffer, we'll start to see the real effects on the real estate industry.  By the time people start saying, "Real estate is looking bad..." the economy will likely already be showing major cracks.

Which leads me to the answer to your question...  :)

I don't think there are any major systemic issues with the real estate market right now (again, unlike 2008).  The industry is still pretty sound, at least in the single family residential sector (I could argue that multi-family has some other issues).  So, whether we see a big drop in real estate and whether we see a lot of really cheap properties this time around will be highly dependent on how bad the broader economy is.  

How high unemployment goes.  How high interest rates go.  How much further inflation increases.  How badly GDP gets hit.  What happens with consumer debt.  Etc.

And unfortunately, nobody knows the answer to that question.  Personally, I don't think things will be as bad as 2008, but I'm just guessing (like everyone else, including all the economists).  The big concern I would have for our economy right now is consumer debt.  This is just unsustainable, and I have a feeling that default on consumer debt (and student loan debt) could lead to a big economic snowball...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

But again, good economists will admit they have no idea how bad the next downturn will be.  Could be relatively small, like 2001 (or smaller).  Could be big, like 2008 (or bigger).  But anyone who tells you they know is lying to you... :)

Wow, thanks for all that insight, and yes I agree that the amount of student debt is way to high to do any good. Many of my friends have held off on buying property because of it.

I look forward to reading your book!

Originally posted by @J Scott :
Originally posted by @Andrew Angerer:

Hey J,

Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?

I talk a lot about this in the book, but here are my general thoughts...

A lot of real estate investors who have come along since 2008 tend to think about real estate being the cause of a market downtown -- in 2008, the mortgage crisis destroyed the economy.  So, they judge the strength of the market (both real estate and the economy) by looking at real estate data and statistics and saying, "Real estate is strong...all is good!" or "Real is weak...all is bad!"

But, in actuality, for most recessions, real estate isn't a cause.  Real estate is just the unlucky economic sector that gets dragged along because of parts of the economy are struggling.  In 2001, it was tech that lead the downturn.  In the late 80s, is was the S&L crisis.  In the 70s, it was oil that caused negative ripples through the economy.  

In most cases, real estate goes down during a recession not because there are systemic issues in the real estate market (like in 2008) but because the economy is crap, interest rates are high, consumers are overloaded with debt, people are losing jobs, etc.  No matter how sound the real estate market might be, if these other things are happening, real estate is going to get hurt because homeowners are struggling to pay their bills and renters aren't in a position to buy.

So, looking at today's housing market and saying, "All is good because real estate looks good..." is not sound economic forecasting.  Real estate is a "lagging indicator," meaning that it's going to look good even as the economy turns down.  A few months after the economy starts to suffer, we'll start to see the real effects on the real estate industry.  By the time people start saying, "Real estate is looking bad..." the economy will likely already be showing major cracks.

Which leads me to the answer to your question...  :)

I don't think there are any major systemic issues with the real estate market right now (again, unlike 2008).  The industry is still pretty sound, at least in the single family residential sector (I could argue that multi-family has some other issues).  So, whether we see a big drop in real estate and whether we see a lot of really cheap properties this time around will be highly dependent on how bad the broader economy is.  

How high unemployment goes.  How high interest rates go.  How much further inflation increases.  How badly GDP gets hit.  What happens with consumer debt.  Etc.

And unfortunately, nobody knows the answer to that question.  Personally, I don't think things will be as bad as 2008, but I'm just guessing (like everyone else, including all the economists).  The big concern I would have for our economy right now is consumer debt.  This is just unsustainable, and I have a feeling that default on consumer debt (and student loan debt) could lead to a big economic snowball...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

But again, good economists will admit they have no idea how bad the next downturn will be.  Could be relatively small, like 2001 (or smaller).  Could be big, like 2008 (or bigger).  But anyone who tells you they know is lying to you... :)

Originally posted by @J Scott :
Originally posted by @Andrew Angerer:

Hey J,

Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?

I talk a lot about this in the book, but here are my general thoughts...

A lot of real estate investors who have come along since 2008 tend to think about real estate being the root cause of any market downtown -- in 2008, the mortgage crisis destroyed the economy and they assume this is how it typically works.  So, they judge the strength of the market (both real estate and the economy) by looking at real estate data and statistics and saying, "Real estate is strong...all is good!" or "Real is weak...all is bad!"

But, in actuality, for most recessions, real estate isn't a cause.  Real estate is just the unlucky economic sector that gets dragged along because other parts of the economy are struggling.  In 2001, it was the tech bubble that lead the downturn.  In the late 80s, is was the S&L crisis.  In the 70s, it was oil that caused negative ripples through the economy.  

In most cases, real estate goes down during a recession not because there are systemic issues in the real estate market (like in 2008) but because the economy is crap, interest rates are high, consumers are overloaded with debt, people are losing jobs, etc.  No matter how sound the real estate market might be, if these other things are happening, real estate is going to get hurt because homeowners are struggling to pay their bills and renters aren't in a position to buy.

So, looking at today's housing market and saying, "All is good because real estate looks good..." is not sound economic forecasting.  Real estate is a "lagging indicator," meaning that it's going to look good even as the economy turns down.  A few months after the economy starts to suffer, we'll start to see the real effects on the real estate industry.  By the time people start saying, "Real estate is looking bad..." the economy will likely already be showing major cracks.

Which leads me to the answer to your question...  :)

I don't think there are any major systemic issues with the real estate market right now (again, unlike 2008).  The industry is still pretty sound, at least in the single family residential sector (I could argue that multi-family has some other issues).  So, whether we see a big drop in real estate and whether we see a lot of really cheap properties this time around will be highly dependent on how bad the broader economy is.  

How high unemployment goes.  How high interest rates go.  How much further inflation increases.  How badly GDP gets hit.  What happens with consumer debt.  Etc.

And unfortunately, nobody knows the answer to that question.  Personally, I don't think things will be as bad as 2008, but I'm just guessing (like everyone else, including all the economists).  The big concern I would have for our economy right now is consumer debt.  This is just unsustainable, and I have a feeling that default on consumer debt (and student loan debt) could lead to a big economic snowball...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

But again, good economists will admit they have no idea how bad the next downturn will be.  Could be relatively small, like 2001 (or smaller).  Could be big, like 2008 (or bigger).  But anyone who tells you they know is lying to you... :)

Amazing thread.  Courageous post inasmuch as a lot people simply do not want to hear anything about a recession.  I'm chiming in my 2 cents here...

I like to fancy myself a "crack pot economist and economic tin foil hat wearer" but, I try to base my craziness on cold hard facts.  That said, the next recession will make the last one look like a walk in the park.

Each day we do NOT start the next recession, the worse it gets.  Here's why...

  • Student loan bubble. HIGHER education is extremely overvalued.  
  • Auto loan bubble.  Auto loan defaults are skyrocketing - particularly on used cars.
  • Derivatives bubble.  I think we're at like a quadrillion now? That's crazy. 
  • 70% Americans don't have $1,000 in cash for an emergency.
  • The average household is $17,000 in debt. 
  • The average person who has owned their home for 20+ years will has about $30,000 worth of equity in it.  
  • Re-financings on homes reached record levels this decade and balloon payments on about 1.5 million homes will come due in about 15 months. THAT'S THE FIRST WAVE.  

We have not seen a confluence of events like this at any time during economic history - for ANY civilization.  In the case of the United States, booms and busts are perfunctory to living under a debt based fiat currency system that some may refer to as a Ponzi scheme.  

Any sequence of events can trigger all of these things to pop one after the other.  Or what if they pop simultaneously?  However, we all know that all of these things will end somehow. 

When I look at global debt, the dollar crisis, the RETIREMENT crisis seems to be the big pink elephant in the room no one wants to discuss, I sit up in my chair a bit more... 

Humans are literally dying out of the stock and real estate market and there are not enough humans who have the resources to replace them. 

There are going to be less people participating in 401k's - which has been the "secret" to the success of the stock market.  If money wasn't automatically taken from peoples paycheck for gambling in stocks with outlandish PE ratios today, and no real business in 2001, I doubt they'd sit down the weekend after pay day, shop for stocks, and place buy orders.  

So, the market relied on trillions of dollars automatically deducted from paychecks that won't be there to deduct anymore.

Furthermore, baby boomers were able to acquire and LEVERAGE debt. Baby boomers were able to start with a small SFR and allow that appreciate to a point where they could leverage it to buy a 4 or 8 unit building. No so for their kids and grandkids.

The average college grad will never qualify for a home under conventional terms. Let that sink in. Each year we are graduating MILLIONS of kids who will NEVER be able to qualify for a mortgage under conventional terms (solid credit, steady employment, 20% down).  

I was just reading an article where a freelancer was able to buy a $650,000 house after struggling to document income.   

This is not sustainable. There has to be a reset.  I hate to sound like a Debbie downer, but we will see a massive global recession at some point in time.  Don't get me started on the inevitability of dollars flowing back to shore which will in turn cause crazy inflation... The world is looking to "de-dollarize" as our dollar is backed by nothing more than the threat of force against oil producing countries who refuse to use it in trade. What happens to the dollar when we lose that leverage? 

China is playing a SUPER long game and has absolute and total global dominance as a part of it's 100 year plan... 

Must destroy to rebuild.  I'm nearing 40 and the most loving thing this country can do for my grandkids is to let this current system die and rebuild anew.  Based on sound money.

Just in time!  Officially on my "To Read" list.  Thank you in advance for this! :) 

@J Scott

Interesting topic, thanks

Will read your book

I think there are times where property investors should do nothing and just sit on their hands and watch 

For me its all about supply versus demand, volume.

Key is to watch market conditions and market sentiment can never be under estimated

This post has been removed.

@Jay Ballman Amazing post with insightful data points. I definitely think your point about our current practices not being sustainable is spot on.

@J Scott Your knowledge and perspective on economic cycles is very intriguing.  As you know there is a lot of comparative analysis going on right now in regards to previous downturns/recessions.  I hear a lot of people say we'll never see another downturn like the 07-08 downturn. So, what will be so different about the next one (whenever it is)? I have asked many older investors what was the most memorable downturn they can remember in their lifetime. Most quote the early 80s or the early 90s. I guess some people have different thoughts on which downturns/recessions were worst. Looking in the future, we will never know how bad it will be or is until we can actually look back at it. During the 07-08 downturn, I was very new to real estate, and had just gotten out of a flip. With feeling lucky to have made it out in a nick of time, and seeing all the destruction around me, I chose to move on with regular life and stayed away from real estate. Of course hindsight is 20/20, so I wonder if I will ever get a chance to apply the lessons I know now to a period as abundant and interesting as the aftermath of the 07-08 downturn.

@J Scott

What are your thoughts on what causes the cycles & your views on Austrian Economics & gold & crypto versus the Keynesian garbage they tried to force feed me in college?

How does that impact these cycles & your predictions?

Do you think the next cycle will be worse than the Great Depression?

Great topic, thanks for the insight. 

I suppose the IMFs theory makes sense. In reality, running on the assumption that GDP could/would perpetually out pace interest paid on expanding debt is a scary thought.

J

Just finished your course on CoachCarson.com. Amazing, you've changed the direction our company is heading in what I hope is a very opportune time. Remind me to buy you a beer if we ever meet. Three questions:

1. Is there any value to reading the book if I've already taken the course? I assume there's a lot of overlap but does one go deeper into the material than the other?

2. Are there any other resources on the topic you used in your research I could read? The only thing I could find was an out of print edition of Timing the Real Estate Market by Robert Campbell.

3. Any timeline on when module 6 might be coming out?

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