J Scott's Recession Proof Real Estate Investing: Ask Me Anything!

97 Replies

It seems like I see a very high post load regarding the recession lately.  Is something big happening that Iam not aware of? 

Originally posted by @Andrew Ryan Patterson :

It seems like I see a very high post load regarding the recession lately.  Is something big happening that Iam not aware of? 

The economy works in cycles, and it's starting to change.  This isn't unexpected -- we are 11 years into a bull market that historically only lasts about 6 years.  

There is a lot economic data indicating that we may be close to a peak in this economic cycle:

- Inflation Increasing

- Interest Rates Up

- The Yield Curve Flattening

- Full Employment

- GDP Dropping

- Housing Inventory Increasing

- Consumer Debt High

- Auto Sales Down

- Etc...

For a lot more detail on all of that, what it means, and how you can leverage the information, check out the book...  ;-)

Hey J,

Great post and I very much enjoyed your latest podcast episode on BP.  Not sure on the timeline of the recording of the podcast, but I was wondering about the correction that occurred in December.  From my understanding, some of the metrics you mentioned were brought to more stable or normal values and were "corrected".  Did the December correction delay the larger recession that is being discussed in this post?  Please talk some more about what you think the December correction did for the market and how it will change how things play out.

Thanks

Originally posted by @Jacob Hanson :

Hey J,

Great post and I very much enjoyed your latest podcast episode on BP.  Not sure on the timeline of the recording of the podcast, but I was wondering about the correction that occurred in December.  From my understanding, some of the metrics you mentioned were brought to more stable or normal values and were "corrected".  Did the December correction delay the larger recession that is being discussed in this post?  Please talk some more about what you think the December correction did for the market and how it will change how things play out.

Thanks

Exactly how the top of the economic cycle plays out is always a surprise.  In some cases, we hit a peak, and the drop is quick and steep (like 2008).  In other cases, we bounce along the top for many months and the beginning of the downturn is long and drawn out (like in the late 80s, early 90s).

I've been saying for a few months that I believe we're in the Peak Phase of the cycle right now (the top inflection point between the expansion and the recession), and I believe we're going to be bouncing along the top for a while longer.  But, I'm not sure there has been much of a correction, except for maybe the stock market.  

If you look at the yield curve, it's still flattening.

If you look at unemployment, it's rising.

If you look at GDP, it's falling.

If you look at inflation, it's increasing.

If you look at housing inventory, it's increasing.

If you look at consumer confidence, it's dropping.

That said, none of those things are moving particularly quickly, and it feels like we could have a long, slow dragged-out inflection point heading into the next recession (of course, it could change quickly as well, I'm not discounting that possibility). 

The point is, I think this current expansion has run its course.  Best case, GDP stays around 2% for a few more quarters, unemployment hovers around 4%, housing inventory and values level off, the Fed doesn't raise rates again (I think it's possible they'll cut rates in the next few months) and inflation doesn't increase.  If all that happens, we end up in a holding pattern until something triggers the inevitable slide down the other side of the curve.

I don't like trying to predict time frames for economic shifts -- my opinion is just a guess like everyone else's.  I think I tend to be more pessimistic than most people, though the past few months, it seems that a lot of people are starting to agree with me that we're probably closer to the downturn than they thought last summer.

I think it will be interesting to see Q1 GDP numbers -- that should give us an idea of how quickly the slowdown is progressing...

@J Scott

Unemployment numbers are still good.  Anyone wanting to work is working.  And you can’t do much about those not wanting to work.  ;-)

I believe home inventory is up because rates are up.  Places that were previously affordable are no longer as affordable.  Partially due to rates, but also due to inflation.  And I believe our true inflationary numbers are much higher than what is publicized.  After all, the govt will skew the numbers if they look out of whack.  :-(

Lies, damn lies, & statistics.  ;-)

Originally posted by @Alan Grobmeier :

@J Scott

Unemployment numbers are still good.  Anyone wanting to work is working.  And you can’t do much about those not wanting to work.  ;-)

I believe home inventory is up because rates are up.  Places that were previously affordable are no longer as affordable.  Partially due to rates, but also due to inflation.  And I believe our true inflationary numbers are much higher than what is publicized.  After all, the govt will skew the numbers if they look out of whack.  :-(

Lies, damn lies, & statistics.  ;-)

Unemployment numbers (full employment) are actually an indication that we're likely headed for a recession.  Historically, once we hit full employment, employers are forced to raises wages to entice new workers into the work force (or get workers to come from competitors).  This induces higher wages (which we've seen as well), which leads to employers having to raise prices to compensate (this is inflation, which we've seen), which leads to interest rate hikes to slow inflation (which we've seen), which leads to reduced spending. 

All of this leads to reduced GDP, which is the big indicator of an impending downturn.  

2Q18 GDP was 4.2%.  3Q18 GDP was 3.4%.  4Q18 GDP is now forecast at between 2.5% and 2.7%.  And 2019 GDP growth is anticipated at about 2.2%.

As you can see, the great unemployment numbers are driving inflation and having a severe impact on growth.  This is why, historically, hitting full employment is one of the best indicators of an impending recession.  We hit 3.6% back in October, and are now sitting at 4.0%, an increase that is right in line with the curve we'd expect at we go over the economic peak.

And yes, housing supply is up because interest rates are up.  Again, that's standard at the top of the cycle.  Increased inflation leads the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate, which leads to higher interest rates, which leads to businesses and consumers saving more and spending less, which again leads to GDP contraction.  (It all comes back to GDP contraction.)

Housing inventory is now above the historic average of about 6 months, so it's safe to say that the current expansion is done for housing (NAR said this a few months ago as well):

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

And if you believe that inflation is actually higher than what the government is telling us (I agree with that, btw), then this is an even bigger reason to believe that a recession is around the corner.

Long story short, economic numbers (unemployment, GDP, inflation, interest rates, etc) all look their best at the top of the market -- this is what happened about 6 months ago when unemployment was at 3.6% (now 4.0%), GDP was at 4.2% (now 2.6%), fed funds rate was at 1.8% (now 2.4%) and inflation was at 1.5% (now 2.5% or higher).

Again, I'm not going to try to predict when or how badly this next recession will come, but I think it's safe to say that the expansion is over...

@J Scott , couldnt we just have ‘happy days’ again if the fed cut interest rates?  

If we have a bad recession, they could go to ‘helicopter money’.  It would seem to me we would be better off cutting interest rates (in the short term) to keep everything going?  Is this an over-simplification?

Originally posted by @Alan Grobmeier :

@J Scott, couldnt we just have ‘happy days’ again if the fed cut interest rates?  

If we have a bad recession, they could go to ‘helicopter money’.  It would seem to me we would be better off cutting interest rates (in the short term) to keep everything going?  Is this an over-simplification?

The Fed has raised interest rates for two reasons:

1.  Inflation is increasing, and raising interest rates is the only lever they have to slow inflation (other than reducing the money supply, which they won't do right now);

2.  They know that if they don't raise rates now, interest rates will be close to 0% and when they need to lower rates later (to spur additional growth), they won't have that option.

In my opinion, #1 is less of an issue right now than #2.  

The Fed is trying to avoid the situation Japan got themselves into 20 years ago, where they literally had to drop interest rates negative (yes, YOU HAD TO PAY to get banks to hold your money) in order to spur growth.

Could you imagine negative interest rates in this country right now, when most people don't have enough money to keep their bank balances at $0, let alone enough money to pay the banks to keep their accounts open?  

Also, in terms of "keeping things going," consider that this is the longest economic expansion in history (we hit 10 years this week), so things have already been going for quite some time given our history.

Originally posted by @J Scott :
Originally posted by @Ian Imlach:

@J Scott Could you talk a little bit more about what issues you’re seeing with multifamily?

Long story short, because interest rates got so (artificially) low, cap rates followed and there was a lot of buying in primary and secondary markets at 5%, 4% and even lower cap rates.  Because a lot of multi-family buyers are institutions who have to keep their capital working, they didn't really have a choice to sit on the sidelines, so cap rates just kept dropping and dropping.

Buying at a 5 cap doesn't sound horrible when long-term treasury yield are under 3%, but now that interest rates are rising and investors can get lower risk investments at higher returns, this is going to force cap rates on multi-family higher.  Those who bought at a 5 cap aren't going to be able to sell at a 5 cap if investors can get treasury bonds at 5% or CD/savings returns at 5%.  Instead, multi-family owners are going to see cap rates rise to 6% or 7% or 8% or higher, depending on what happens with interest rates.  

And as cap rates rise, values decrease. Now, over a decade or two, income will increase enough to offset the value lost by rising cap rates, but that could take a long time. And many of these multi-family investors are either syndicating deals (where their investors don't want to wait 20 years to cash out and get low IRR) or they are highly leveraged and will need to refinance in 5-10 years (during which time they may find they have little or no equity in the property).

So, many multi-family investors may need to sell in a few years, and as these properties start flooding the market, that's going to drive values down even more.  We could see with multi-family what we saw with single-family after 2008 -- a dramatic drop in prices and seller desperation.

Now, there are a lot of variables, and it may not play out exactly like this. But, I think this is a big risk...

you definitely have the herd mentality chasing MF.  biggest risk I see is all these new players.. 5 year calls  and like Bruce Norris talked about last year at the Oakland event ( see you Sat)  that its frothy and many of his peer group would only be a seller now not a buyer. 

I think what you wrote is very accurate assessment.  Over exuberance in any one asset class will flood a market and cause artificial highs. I saw this in the Timber industry when the Japanese were paying double for the same logs the domestic mills where paying.. We made a killing selling export but it only last about 5 years then it crashed..  I was just with a partner of mine from Honolulu and they own a lot of income property but have almost no debt on it.. its the over leverage or max leverage crowd that has risk.. might work fine might be some major cash calls coming for syndicators who bought with the idea to refi in 2022 or so.

@J Scott , congrats on the release of your new book. I can see you're very observant of market/economic cycles and I agree with your assessment that we're due for a recession.  I have 2 questions for you:

  • What do you think are the right real estate investment strategies NOW to prepare for a recession?; and
  • What are the right strategies DURING a recession?

What helped me survive 2008 is to have properties with healthy cashflows prior to the recession. The cashflow allowed me to build a "war chest" to acquire more properties when there are so many bargains to buy in 2009-2011.

@J Scott Your posts are so interesting and make so much sense!  Thank you for taking the time to share this. I'm always trying to stay on top of where we are in the economic cycle so I can best advise my clients and every economic forum I've been to in the past six months says Colorado Springs is going to go strong through this year. Tatiana Bailey (econ prof at UCCS) said she does see indicators of a coming recession possibly later next year, so your info fits in well with what she's seeing. I think that various cities will obviously be impacted differently. We are seeing massive growth right now in the Springs with over 920 new residents expected each month through 2019 (that's averaged out). As long as people keep coming and our housing inventory remains tight, I think we will continue to see upward pressure on prices during this year.  As of today we have only 765 resale homes on the market - that's single family, condos and townhomes. That is extremely low for El Paso County. It'll be very interesting to see what 2020 brings.

Originally posted by @Michael Ealy :

@J Scott, congrats on the release of your new book. I can see you're very observant of market/economic cycles and I agree with your assessment that we're due for a recession.  I have 2 questions for you:

  • What do you think are the right real estate investment strategies NOW to prepare for a recession?; and
  • What are the right strategies DURING a recession?

What helped me survive 2008 is to have properties with healthy cashflows prior to the recession. The cashflow allowed me to build a "war chest" to acquire more properties when there are so many bargains to buy in 2009-2011.

Hey Michael,

I spend about half the book answering those two questions, so I'm not going to try to repeat it all here...

For those wondering, the first half of the book is basically a tutorial on how the economy works and how economic cycles work.   The second half of the book are the specific strategies you're asking about.  

For each of the four parts of the economic cycle, I discuss:

1.  What are the indications you are in that part of the cycle;

2.  What are the strategies and tactics you can use in that part of the cycle to maximize profits and minimize risk;

3.  What are the things you should be doing in that part of the cycle to prepare for the next part.

Don't mean to ignore your questions, but it's just too much to cut-and-paste into a forum post!

Hey @J Scott ....almost done reading this ebook.  Incredibly helpful and it offers great perspective.  I've learned a lot and it's confirmed with data what I've been seeing and feeling for recently.  Thanks so much.  

What are your thoughts on purchasing buy and holds in areas that are transitioning positively?  Most major metros have these areas and mine is no different.  Do you think that's still a viable option in a recession or would you advise to shift focus and pivot to a different strategy altogether?

Thanks again for your insight.

Originally posted by @Bob Woelfel :

Hey @J Scott....almost done reading this ebook.  Incredibly helpful and it offers great perspective.  I've learned a lot and it's confirmed with data what I've been seeing and feeling for recently.  Thanks so much.  

What are your thoughts on purchasing buy and holds in areas that are transitioning positively?  Most major metros have these areas and mine is no different.  Do you think that's still a viable option in a recession or would you advise to shift focus and pivot to a different strategy altogether?

Thanks again for your insight.

As I talk about in the book, buy-and-hold is great strategy during any phase of the cycle.  Obviously, during certain phases, it's going to be a lot more difficult to find good deals, but if you can find deals that meet your criteria -- and if you are sure to be conservative about market rents and occupancy numbers -- the Recession phase is a great time to pick up rentals.  Additionally, this is probably the best time in the cycle to use creative financing and pick up deals with as little of your own cash as possible.

Long story short, yes, you should definitely be looking for rentals during a recession if that's your preferred strategy.

I hope this is staying on topic... 

Can you give us your thoughts regarding the Washington Post article published two days ago titled;  A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12...

Have ordered your book!

Originally posted by @Matthew McNeil :

I hope this is staying on topic... 

Can you give us your thoughts regarding the Washington Post article published two days ago titled;  A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12...

Have ordered your book!

Hey Matthew, 

To be completely honest, I track a ridiculous number of economic data points (I'm a bit OCD with my data :), but I had NEVER heard a statistic on late payers on auto loans.  So, I don't know exactly this means...and as far as I know, this had never been a leading indicator before (in other words, I don't believe it's something that generally happens before other types of debt default).

That said, consumer debt is obviously a big metric that can help forecast economic shifts.  In fact, many economists refer to the "business cycle" (the 5-7 year economic cycle) as the "short-term debt cycle," simply because the wholes is essentially debt driven.  The economy expands for two reasons: Economic/GDP growth (which is good expansion) and debt (which is bad expansion).  When debt gets too high (and interest rates start to rise), consumers default on debt and it all starts to snowball downward.

Typically, it's credit card debt that is the first sign of a problem.  Credit card defaults start to increase, leading to housing/mortgage defaults.  As of 4th quarter 2018, credit card defaults were still pretty low (in fact, they dropped in Q4!!!), and foreclosures and late-mortgage payers were also relatively low.  So, while total debt was increasing, it appeared that the defaults and debt spiral were still a bit of a ways off.

But, with this new information about car loan debt, it makes me wonder if debt default is already starting to become an issue -- but that in this particular cycle, it's starting in a different part of the credit market.  I find it weird that we'd be seeing car loan default before credit card default, for two reasons:

1.  Credit card interest rates average about 17%; car loan rates closer to 9%.  People tend to default on the highest cost loans first;

2.  People tend to default on loans that least impact their life first.  This is why people will generally pay their mortgage even after missing other consumer debt/credit payments.  The mortgage is generally the last payment that is missed.

For these reasons, it's strange that car loan payments are a problem, but credit card payments are not.

I've been on vacation this week, so I haven't had a chance to dig in on this and see what others (who are more knowledgeable than I am) think is going on.  But, once I do, I'll happy to update this thread with what I find...

Originally posted by @J Scott :
Originally posted by @Matthew McNeil:

I hope this is staying on topic... 

Can you give us your thoughts regarding the Washington Post article published two days ago titled;  A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12...

Have ordered your book!

Hey Matthew, 

To be completely honest, I track a ridiculous number of economic data points (I'm a bit OCD with my data :), but I had NEVER heard a statistic on late payers on auto loans.  So, I don't know exactly this means...and as far as I know, this had never been a leading indicator before (in other words, I don't believe it's something that generally happens before other types of debt default).

That said, consumer debt is obviously a big metric that can help forecast economic shifts.  In fact, many economists refer to the "business cycle" (the 5-7 year economic cycle) as the "short-term debt cycle," simply because the wholes is essentially debt driven.  The economy expands for two reasons: Economic/GDP growth (which is good expansion) and debt (which is bad expansion).  When debt gets too high (and interest rates start to rise), consumers default on debt and it all starts to snowball downward.

Typically, it's credit card debt that is the first sign of a problem.  Credit card defaults start to increase, leading to housing/mortgage defaults.  As of 4th quarter 2018, credit card defaults were still pretty low (in fact, they dropped in Q4!!!), and foreclosures and late-mortgage payers were also relatively low.  So, while total debt was increasing, it appeared that the defaults and debt spiral were still a bit of a ways off.

But, with this new information about car loan debt, it makes me wonder if debt default is already starting to become an issue -- but that in this particular cycle, it's starting in a different part of the credit market.  I find it weird that we'd be seeing car loan default before credit card default, for two reasons:

1.  Credit card interest rates average about 17%; car loan rates closer to 9%.  People tend to default on the highest cost loans first;

2.  People tend to default on loans that least impact their life first.  This is why people will generally pay their mortgage even after missing other consumer debt/credit payments.  The mortgage is generally the last payment that is missed.

For these reasons, it's strange that car loan payments are a problem, but credit card payments are not.

I've been on vacation this week, so I haven't had a chance to dig in on this and see what others (who are more knowledgeable than I am) think is going on.  But, once I do, I'll happy to update this thread with what I find...

 I dont want to hijack your thread....but one thing with the auto loan lates...is the percentage share of them 90 days late is down.  In 2010, 5.3% of all auto loans hit 90 days late...today that share is 4.5%.  An obvious factor in the total number being higher now is that more people have loans out as opposed to 2010 when the economy is bad.  But at almost any point in history, on gross numbers for statistics, we should be near record highs for anything...because population increases, inflation increases dollar values.  Next year, the number should be higher, the year after that it should still be higher.  So more people behind, bad.  Lower percentage of people behind good.

Originally posted by @J Scott :
Originally posted by @Matthew McNeil:

I hope this is staying on topic... 

Can you give us your thoughts regarding the Washington Post article published two days ago titled;  A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12...

Have ordered your book!

Hey Matthew, 

To be completely honest, I track a ridiculous number of economic data points (I'm a bit OCD with my data :), but I had NEVER heard a statistic on late payers on auto loans.  So, I don't know exactly this means...and as far as I know, this had never been a leading indicator before (in other words, I don't believe it's something that generally happens before other types of debt default).

That said, consumer debt is obviously a big metric that can help forecast economic shifts.  In fact, many economists refer to the "business cycle" (the 5-7 year economic cycle) as the "short-term debt cycle," simply because the wholes is essentially debt driven.  The economy expands for two reasons: Economic/GDP growth (which is good expansion) and debt (which is bad expansion).  When debt gets too high (and interest rates start to rise), consumers default on debt and it all starts to snowball downward.

Typically, it's credit card debt that is the first sign of a problem.  Credit card defaults start to increase, leading to housing/mortgage defaults.  As of 4th quarter 2018, credit card defaults were still pretty low (in fact, they dropped in Q4!!!), and foreclosures and late-mortgage payers were also relatively low.  So, while total debt was increasing, it appeared that the defaults and debt spiral were still a bit of a ways off.

But, with this new information about car loan debt, it makes me wonder if debt default is already starting to become an issue -- but that in this particular cycle, it's starting in a different part of the credit market.  I find it weird that we'd be seeing car loan default before credit card default, for two reasons:

1.  Credit card interest rates average about 17%; car loan rates closer to 9%.  People tend to default on the highest cost loans first;

2.  People tend to default on loans that least impact their life first.  This is why people will generally pay their mortgage even after missing other consumer debt/credit payments.  The mortgage is generally the last payment that is missed.

For these reasons, it's strange that car loan payments are a problem, but credit card payments are not.

I've been on vacation this week, so I haven't had a chance to dig in on this and see what others (who are more knowledgeable than I am) think is going on.  But, once I do, I'll happy to update this thread with what I find...

 Thanks for sharing your thoughts.  I'm not an economist by any stretch of the imagination, but I'd never heard of a media outlet highlighting an issue regarding auto loans being in arrears and identifying it as a "red flag for the economy."   I just found it odd and intriguing.  

Enjoy your vacation.  If you have time to look more into this later and post an update that would be great. 


Thanks!

Hey @J Scott

I appreciate you taking the time to make us smarter. This book came at just the right time for me as this topic is a new undertaking for me.

As I plot the yield curve:

Is this something I should be doing daily?, as they are daily numbers. Or Monthly?

Also you talk about the Buffet indicator and reference a chart at the top of pg. 41.

"Notice that the Buffett Indicator has only been above 100 percent four times in the past 50

years, and all four times were followed by a recession within a couple years."


Could you clarify this. It almost seems like the wrong chart was inserted (though I'm sure it's reader error). Where is the 100% and which four times.

Thanks for the help. I'm sure we'll be talking again. I'm sure to have more questions.

Originally posted by @Neil Schoepp :

Hey @J Scott

I appreciate you taking the time to make us smarter. This book came at just the right time for me as this topic is a new undertaking for me.

As I plot the yield curve:

Is this something I should be doing daily?, as they are daily numbers. Or Monthly?

Also you talk about the Buffet indicator and reference a chart at the top of pg. 41.

"Notice that the Buffett Indicator has only been above 100 percent four times in the past 50

years, and all four times were followed by a recession within a couple years."


Could you clarify this. It almost seems like the wrong chart was inserted (though I'm sure it's reader error). Where is the 100% and which four times.

Thanks for the help. I'm sure we'll be talking again. I'm sure to have more questions.

Hey Neil,

The chart on page 41 is correct.  I should have clarified that the numbers along the Y axis (the vertical axis) are the decimal equivalent to the percentages.  For example, .6 is the same as 60%, 1.0 is the same as 100%, 1.2 is the same as 120%, etc.

You'll notice that this curve has risen above 100% (the 1.0 line) four times in the past 50 years -- from 1997 through the beginning of 2001, briefly again in 2002 (this one is hard to see because it's so quick), from about 2006 through 2008 and then starting in 2014 through now.

Does that clarify?

@J Scott

Crystal clear now. I was looking at completely different and that's why it made no sense to me. 

I have a question about the yield curve,

As I plot the yield curve:

Is this something I should be doing daily?, as they are daily numbers. If I do it daily does the curve have to stay inverted a certain amount of time before I can say Yes it's an inverted curve and It's indicating a change.

Originally posted by @Neil Schoepp :

@J Scott

Crystal clear now. I was looking at completely different and that's why it made no sense to me. 

I have a question about the yield curve,

As I plot the yield curve:

Is this something I should be doing daily?, as they are daily numbers. If I do it daily does the curve have to stay inverted a certain amount of time before I can say Yes it's an inverted curve and It's indicating a change.

The yield curve typically doesn't change very quickly.  I like to look at it every week or two, just to see if there were any major movements. 

In addition, I will look here every couple days just to see the trend:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-char...

For example, for the past two weeks, you can see that the short-term yields are up a little bit and the long-term yields are down a little bit, so the curve is still flattening.

As for what "inverted" means, there are typically two definitions:

1.  Fully inverted is when the short-term (3 years and below) are less than long-term (10 years and above) yields.

2.  Partially inverted is when some of the middle range (5 year, 7 year) are higher than the 20 or 30 year yields.

I really like this article for more in-depth info:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-yie...

@J Scott

Thanks for the links. The first one is where I am pulling my data for. It's good to see I'm in the correct place.

Thanks for the reuters article. The added info was well received and a great read.

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