Hey Guys - What are your bets on interest rates over the short term? Why?
My best guess seeing as we have a presidential election coming up is that there will be no significant change in one way or the other unless the bottom falls out of the DOW. I say this with full disclosure that I am no expert on the subject.
25 bases points up to test the waters for improving job reports. Wages are still stagnate but that normally goes up with full employment. More people quit their job last quarter than in the past 20 years on record. Unemployment is the at lowest point in 14 years.
short term is volatile within about 30 to 45 basis points it seems - considering what the market has done over the last few weeks. Every market fluctuation is affecting rates right now. Even when bond prices where up, which should have lowered rates, we had an increase in rates because of the indicators @Matt R. mentioned. The key will be to get in and execute your plans and have a good banker or broker who tracks rates for you and locks at the appropriate time to maximize your savings. an 1/8th or 10th or a % shouldn't affect most deals unless they're really tight or high dollar amounts
No one knows not even Yellen. I trade Foreign Currency in the early morning and I follow the US dollar pairs. Forex is a 4 Trillion a day trading market and as the dollar strengthens it is unraveling the stock market. On Tuesday, the DJIA plunged 333 points, the biggest fall in 5 months.
There are deflationary pressures: Eurozone is deflating, UK not raising mortgage rates, Fed not raising. Oil is still weak, Boomers are retiring debt and Millennial buyers are not out in force yet.
I see weak mortgage rates in the near term.
rates are not going to move much at all in he short term. Speculation will cause some market volitility but the next FED meeting will hold teary once again. There are no sure signs that the market can sustain an increase in rates and inflation is not an issue. Until the economy shows consistent data no change in the foreseeable future...
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