Help me choose between tenants

[Tandi H.]

Candidate 1:

Single guy, employed 4 years nearby, lots of connections in neighborhood, one cat.  

Pros: Looking to rent long-term/indefinitely, doesn't plan to move as he wants to be in this neighborhood. He has been at his current residence for two years and said he would stay if it was in this neighborhood. Good income. From a local family, grounded in area.  Seems quiet and low maintenance.

Cons:  Credit issues, most from about 4-5 years ago.  Recent bills have been paid but a few are paid 30-60 days late according to credit report.  Says he can have his sister co-sign if needed.  

Candidate 2:

Young professional couple, employed at university, thinking about getting a small dog.

Pros:  Stable employment, good credit.

Cons:  Plan to move out of area in 1-2 years.

Who would you pick?  The no issue couple who will be moving on in a year or two?  Or the getting-his-credit-fixed but stably employed guy who might stick around for a long time preventing turnover costs?

[John Underwood]

You can't guarantee someone will stay in your house long term. 

I have also had tenants stay 5 years who only had intentions on staying a couple of years.

Candidate 1 is a risk, Candidate 2 is not.