Fresh report from the ground in the Smokies, and some needed perspective

[Collin Hays]

I spent the last six days in the TN side of the Smokies visiting various areas, from Cosby all the way to Cades Cove and Townsend. I drove around a lot, looking at activity and talking to merchants.  I talked to waiters and waitresses, store clerks, park rangers, and small business owners.  This is peak summer.  

Although I sound like a broken record, traffic is down. Yes, there is an oversupply of cabins, but I would estimate that it is only about 2200 cabins per night.  That sounds like a lot, and it is. But if traffic was a bit higher - even 5 percent - most of those cabins would be rented out. 

Let's talk about traffic a bit more. It would seem that we could look at GSMNP's visitor numbers and easily gauge where we are.  The only problem with that is, GSMNP adjusted their calculation methods last year. So garbage in, garbage out.  We won't be able to draw any statistical conclusions from that for several years.  That means we are all looking for data points as to what we have today versus say a decade ago.  To figure out exactly how far we are "down" in visitors, I took one of our 1-bedroom premium cabins, smack in the middle of Gatlinburg in the Black Bear Falls area, and looked at the occupancy history dating back to 2018.  I consider this cabin a bellwether of sorts for the overall market. It isn't THE data point, but A  data point. Here are the occupancy for the following years:

2018  - 74%

2019 - 69%

2020 - 87%

2021 - 92%

2022 - 67%

2023 - 59%

2024 - 53%

It's too early to tell what 2025 will be, but I expect it to be below 50 percent.  Back in 2021, when everyone and his Uber driver were buying cabins to rent out, I often heard "well heck, even if demand (visitors) drops 10 percent, I can easily live on 10 percent less rent."  We all found out that there is a major flaw in that logic.  2021 was the highest number of visitors ever to the GSMNP - around 14 million.  In 2022, that number dropped about 7 percent - to 13 million.  But the occupancy of my premium cabin dropped from 92 percent to 67 percent!

I don't represent myself as a forecaster, but the data from my bellwether cabin says that we will have the smallest number of visitors to the Smokies since I have owned the cabin.  I am not sure where the "bottom" is that we are all looking for. We may be in it now, we may not.

Keep the faith.

[Chris Seveney]

Quote from @Collin Hays:

I spent the last six days in the TN side of the Smokies visiting various areas, from Cosby all the way to Cades Cove and Townsend. I drove around a lot, looking at activity and talking to merchants.  I talked to waiters and waitresses, store clerks, park rangers, and small business owners.  This is peak summer.  

Although I sound like a broken record, traffic is down. Yes, there is an oversupply of cabins, but I would estimate that it is only about 2200 cabins per night.  That sounds like a lot, and it is. But if traffic was a bit higher - even 5 percent - most of those cabins would be rented out. 

Let's talk about traffic a bit more. It would seem that we could look at GSMNP's visitor numbers and easily gauge where we are.  The only problem with that is, GSMNP adjusted their calculation methods last year. So garbage in, garbage out.  We won't be able to draw any statistical conclusions from that for several years.  That means we are all looking for data points as to what we have today versus say a decade ago.  To figure out exactly how far we are "down" in visitors, I took one of our 1-bedroom premium cabins, smack in the middle of Gatlinburg in the Black Bear Falls area, and looked at the occupancy history dating back to 2018.  I consider this cabin a bellwether of sorts for the overall market. It isn't THE data point, but A  data point. Here are the occupancy for the following years:

2018  - 74%

2019 - 69%

2020 - 87%

2021 - 92%

2022 - 67%

2023 - 59%

2024 - 53%

It's too early to tell what 2025 will be, but I expect it to be below 50 percent.  Back in 2021, when everyone and his Uber driver were buying cabins to rent out, I often heard "well heck, even if demand (visitors) drops 10 percent, I can easily live on 10 percent less rent."  We all found out that there is a major flaw in that logic.  2021 was the highest number of visitors ever to the GSMNP - around 14 million.  In 2022, that number dropped about 7 percent - to 13 million.  But the occupancy of my premium cabin dropped from 92 percent to 67 percent!

I don't represent myself as a forecaster, but the data from my bellwether cabin says that we will have the smallest number of visitors to the Smokies since I have owned the cabin.  I am not sure where the "bottom" is that we are all looking for. We may be in it now, we may not.

Keep the faith.

 I think what would be interesting to add to this is the # of cabins available - for example 2018 was 74% but if it was 1,000 cabins (I am making numbers up and using small numbers for ease of comparison) that is 740 but if there are 2,000 now at 53% thats 1,060 - which is a good increase but would also highlight the oversupply and give an idea of how much oversupply there is