Amazon HQ2 - REI Opportunity?

208 Replies

@maxwell Lee 

From what I've read on the subject looks like Dallas is at the top of the list and that's where I'm hoping the decide to go mostly because I'm planning on investing in the DFW area anyways but you are right it' all speculation at this point and the big boys will buy all the best stuff before us normal folk find out where they decide my plan is simple buy what I can as close as I can that can at least float itself as a rental and hope for the best lol

Wait til the decision is finalized. Just because they announce it does not mean they will build it. With Amzn it is a lot of hot gas and not much follow up. There is plenty of time to start looking after you see the construction started.  

I shared a leased Amzn building as a realtor in Silicon Valley for 2 years. Completely jam packed then one day parking lot was near empty-a major layoff.  Amzn is not the kind of company employees will be loyal to. May be Jeff is doing fine. Good for him not the rest of employees. This is Silicon Valley high tech center crème of the crop phd, firmware developers, and international marketing. Jeff is counting on their talents to make Jeff's dream come true. 

Originally posted by @Dustin Mathenia :

@maxwell Lee 

From what I've read on the subject looks like Dallas is at the top of the list and that's where I'm hoping the decide to go mostly because I'm planning on investing in the DFW area anyways but you are right it' all speculation at this point and the big boys will buy all the best stuff before us normal folk find out where they decide my plan is simple buy what I can as close as I can that can at least float itself as a rental and hope for the best lol

 Yeah, Dallas has a shot. I think if Seattle is any indication, then it will really be a long play, so there will be opportunities for "regular" investors to get in. In the immediate area prices may spike initially and then stabilize, but the growth over 5-10 years will be strong with a large and steady influx of high-paid workers. I haven't decided if I will try to make a play. It's not like I have infinite capital. If it ends up in ATL, Tampa, Indy, Jax or DC then there's a better chance I will try since I'm at least somewhat familiar with those markets. Chicago, Philly, or Louisville possibly as well since I've already been researching them a little bit. 

Anyway good luck to ya! 

I read an article stating Amazon is weighing 238 different site locations.  In my opinion, they have mishandled the situation.  Too many communities have their hopes up to land Amazon and the decision is going to leave many disappointed.  

We have news in Chicago about the potential Amazon decision almost every day.  I remember when investors got their hopes up we were getting the Olympics because of Obama and bought speculative property.  When they announced Chicago was eliminated, prices in the area of the proposed Olympic village plummeted and many investors were burned.  

ALWAYS look at your investments as they stand and for the potential you can control, like capital improvements and raised rent.  You have to treat external economic factors as gravy because you cannot control them and you certainly cannot count on them.  

Somehow I just can't see Amazon choosing Dallas as it's 2nd HQ...Dallas has really awful weather, I imagine Amazon would want a more desirable place for its employees.

@Josh Calcanis    I think Dallas will have as good a shot as any.  3 fulfillment centers here already.  So they obviously like the area, know the hiring potential, know the real estate and associated costs, and like the logistics.   As we just went through a Toyota HDQ move, I can assure you there will be plenty of news once the decision in made.  Set up a google alert.  I'm guessing for a campus for 50,000 people there will be a 2-3-4 year time lag from announcement to final opening.  A few people will start to move in for constuction right away, and then gradually until opening.  Then a big spurt...and then more gradual as they build it out over another year or two.  So you have plenty of time.  To me the real question is where would they put it.   DFW is a big place with lots of options.   North, South, Central, Downtown, Northlake, Ft. Worth, Alliance, Denton, maybe even someplace like Sherman where they could buy the airport and turn it into a hub.   Probably doesn't matter much where they put it adding another 150,000 people to DFW over 5 years just with this move will put pressure on lots of parts of the city.  While some will live right near the HDQ, that can push out others to other parts of the city.   They say 50,000 at HDQ2, but I also see many other people moving to support HDQ2....all the vendors, suppliers, hanger's on.  If they don't already have one, they probably add a separate data center building as well.  

@Debra Grumbach

There are already 3 Amazon warehouses/fullfulment centers in DFW area.  I think that is the most of any city.  What they're talking about getting is a HDQ2 building.... or a 2nd HDQ building... not sure how that compares to Seattle....but I've heard something like 50,000 jobs with average salary of $100,000.... I'd think that might create as many as 150,000 jobs or more.  Some people here already, but many would move here too.  I think the issue for most cities and what the detractors keep saying about DFW is we don't have that many spare tech workers.  Probably no city does though.  There's a ton of great places around DFW where they could build a campus for 50,000 people.   State Farm is supposed to have 10,000 workers at their place.  Toyota about 4000.  You can see the size of those places, so think about 50,000.  That has to be a big space.   It will affect many cities.  That is a city.   Let the good times roll if we get it.

Originally posted by @Liwen Gu :

Somehow I just can't see Amazon choosing Dallas as it's 2nd HQ...Dallas has really awful weather, I imagine Amazon would want a more desirable place for its employees.

Awful weather? Maybe one ice storm a year that shuts everything down for a day or two, and you don't want to go outside in the month of August, but the rest of the year is pretty nice. If you think weather is a key factor, then any cold-weather city is out (Chicago, Boston, Philly....). And apparently any hot-weather city too if you think the local climate eliminates Dallas. 

Originally posted by @Bob Floss II :

I read an article stating Amazon is weighing 238 different site locations.  In my opinion, they have mishandled the situation.  Too many communities have their hopes up to land Amazon and the decision is going to leave many disappointed.  

We have news in Chicago about the potential Amazon decision almost every day.  I remember when investors got their hopes up we were getting the Olympics because of Obama and bought speculative property.  When they announced Chicago was eliminated, prices in the area of the proposed Olympic village plummeted and many investors were burned.  

ALWAYS look at your investments as they stand and for the potential you can control, like capital improvements and raised rent.  You have to treat external economic factors as gravy because you cannot control them and you certainly cannot count on them.  

 In the 237 places that don't selected, there is going to be some bitterness, particularly the ones that made a serious effort and expended significant resources. Questions will be asked whether their city should bother aggressively courting corporations, and they may choose not to participate in the race next time an opportunity like this happens. I agree that Amazon should have released some sort of shortlist. There are many cities that think they have a realistic shot, but after the decision is made, in hindsight it will be clear that many were never in the running. 

 In the 237 places that don't selected, there is going to be some bitterness, particularly the ones that made a serious effort and expended significant resources.... Amazon should have released some sort of shortlist.

Amazon listed some very explicit criteria for their desired location.  Many of the locales that put in bids knew good and well they did not meet one or more of the criteria.  But its not unlike gambling in a casino.  Sometimes you're willing to make a long-shot bet just because the prize is so tempting. 

True. And also, let's be honest -- many of these politicians know this full well, and instead of being honest (like San Antonio) and telling people "there's no way Amazon goes with us", they instead spend a bunch of public money to put in a bid just so that they can say "We tried!", or gather headlines for themselves, or both.

Kraig

Originally posted by @Account Closed :

In the Dallas area, I would guess the Collin Creek Mall area of Plano.

1)   The internet access is second to none.  We are talking about the Telecommunications Corridor.

2)   The major highway access is second to none.

3)   Multiple airports including DFW which has non stop flights to almost every country on the planet.

4)  A city, a school district, a county, and state that are willing to give BILLIONS to get the project.

5)  Multiple good school districts in the area.

6)  The property was recently bought for an "unspecified" redevelopment.

The area has had tens of thousands of electrical engineers and computer programs within a bike ride for decades.

Austin is also nice.

 Ten BP bucks says McKinney would get the corporate aviation business. ;)

Originally posted by @Liwen Gu :

I'm not referring to cold weather and snowstorms, I'm referring more to hurricanes and flooding

 Then you must be thinking of Houston. We don't get hurricanes here, and flooding is probably no worse than any other city.

I think Amazon will surprise and set shop in the east bay of the San Francisco Bay Area. Somewhere in Dublin, Pleasanton, San Ramon belt where there is a lot of local talent, relatively affordable housing, worlds best weather, lots of open space, connections to San Francisco and Oakland and San Jose, yet conveniently away from the tech epicenters like Mountain View, Palo Alto, Cupertino, Santa Clara etc. The east bay has a huge residential belt with very few tech companies of standing. Almost everyone commutes from here to tech jobs in San Francisco or South Bay. By the Samar token they might even choose the north bay but I'll vote for the east bay.

Originally posted by @Paul B. :
Originally posted by @Liwen Gu:

I'm not referring to cold weather and snowstorms, I'm referring more to hurricanes and flooding

 Then you must be thinking of Houston. We don't get hurricanes here, and flooding is probably no worse than any other city.

 Hmm maybe, I thought Dallas had problems with flooding too but I guess Hurricane Harvey didn't really affect it? I thought there was something a couple of years ago, I remember people at my office discussing about how bad the weather is in Dallas and it just stuck with me.  Maybe it was just the overall humidity. Oh well, I'll do more research next time.

@Liwen Gu

I have met a few people who moved to Dallas and other parts of TX from the west coast (California), none of them complains about the weather. However, we are also seeing increasing number of earthquakes so things must be pretty bad on the west coast even the earthquakes are moving to Texas...

Cheers... Immanuel

@Immanuel Sibero I have travelled all over the world and it’s interesting to see the light, spunk and excitement in people’s eyes when you mention California.  Bluntly To me it’s a place most people would love to move to but can’t. Yup the barriers to entry are steep. Yes some people have left the area for other cities like Austin but 10x more people have moved in and another 30x want to move here. Those who left are unable to move back but I also know they are happy living in Austin or Dallas. Not saying CA is perfect but still it is the most sought after geography in the world. I do think Amazon might exploit the east bay of SF as their next hub. To me it’s a golden opportunity for any big tech to go after. 

I went to see my brother in Stockbridge GA for early Thanksgiving. There is a bunch of industrial out there. I do not know if it is Amazon going in but he thinks so. There is a shell of a building the largest I have ever seen. Literally you drive down the road and it goes for about a mile or something. Has to be millions and millions and millions of sq ft big.

I know big companies keep things real secretive sometimes. If it is not them I cannot imagine who it would be with a building that size.