Amazon HQ2 - REI Opportunity?

208 Replies

Originally posted by @Account Closed :

Things have changed.  I no longer think Dallas is the front runner.  There is now a campaign by Amazon insiders to block Texas from being considered.  They are pointing to efforts by Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton to limit or reverse the Supreme Court rulings on gay marriage as evidence that Texas is not a good cultural fit.

I am now thinking Atlanta or Denver.

 It will be interesting to see if Amazon gives feedback to high-ranking contenders which don't get selected. For example, if they were to publicly state that Texas was a non-starter because of a discriminatory environment, it might send ripples throughout a state that prides itself on being business-friendly. 

Originally posted by @Account Closed :

@Paul B.   I think it would be great if they gave as much feedback as possible to as many places as possible.

Me too. But if the decision boils down to whoever gives them the most money, then I would hate to see other cities conclude that they need to step up their corporate give-away game so they don't lose the next one. 

On the other hand, if an area decides to do some soul-searching and works to address the reasons they lost (*), in order to encourage more business development for everyone, without just handing free money or other preferential status to individual companies, then losing Amazon may turn out to be a blessing in the long run.  

(*) Examples: Reducing unnecessary regulation and bureaucracy in areas not known for being business friendly, or fighting discrimination in areas not known for being "inclusive", and so on...

To avoid starting another thread, I'll stick with updating this one...

News from this morning is they've narrowed it down to 20 cities. To be honest I'm surprised by some. Nashville for example in no way checks off the public transportation box and the highway infrastructure is already showing stress from the rapid influx over the last couple of years.

In terms of REI, a lot of the cities seem relatively low cost ( aside from NY, DC, Miami, LA, and Chicago) for an investor based off of what I've seen on BP. Keep in mind I live in Orlando and have only invested in Central Florida as of 2018, so take that comment for what it's worth.

Now that there is an updated list... what are your thoughts?

https://www.geekwire.com/2018/amazon-narrows-hq2-s...

In a shocking turn of events, Atlanta, Dallas and Austin made the list.

In all seriousness, I thought Orlando would be a good spot with their airport and emerging tech scene. Felt like a better fit than Miami. 

@Kraig Kujawa I agree with Miami with not being the best fit. I don't feel it fits the Amazon culture I was familiar with when I lived in Seattle. The metro isn't anything impressive either (as is Orlando's)

Good to see that Atlanta is still in the running. We have a lot of techies here, so, I think this would a perfect fit. 

Saw 3 great recent articles about this.
http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-headquarters...

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2017/09/28...

This is probably the most insightful one I've see.  Lots of people dreaming, but 4-5 years ago heard something along the same lines from one of the big housing providers.  Regulations in CA kill things..at the time he said something like DFW area had 50,000 lots ready to go for builders and another 50,000 that could be ready in a year.  CA did not have 50,000 lots in the whole state due to red tape and regulations.

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2018/01/08/viewpoint-amazon-hq2-national-site-search-a-look.html

Hello, is anyone seriously planning to jump on the metro as soon as the decision has been announced? I'd like to prepare, i.e. get pre-approved, build a network of potential realtors / partners, but I'm a total newbie and don't really know where to start from. 

If you have any ideas on:

1) What's the best way to jump into the wagon?

2) What can be done in advance?

3) In which metro of the top contenders it's possible to find a cash-flow property? Which are markets with reasonable REI climate? (Positive cash-flows, landlord friendly laws, etc.?)

  1. Atlanta
  2. Washington, DC
  3. Boston
  4. Newark (NYC area)
  5. New York
  6. Philadelphia
  7. Chicago
  8. Denver
  9. Austin
  10. Dallas

Thank you for sharing your opinions!

These 10 are top contenders per https://beta.techcrunch.com/2018/01/22/new-study-predicts-atlanta-has-best-shot-at-becoming-amazons-hq2/

Originally posted by @Victor Tatyanin :

Hello, is anyone seriously planning to jump on the metro as soon as the decision has been announced? I'd like to prepare, i.e. get pre-approved, build a network of potential realtors / partners, but I'm a total newbie and don't really know where to start from. 

If you have any ideas on:

1) What's the best way to jump into the wagon?

2) What can be done in advance?

3) In which metro of the top contenders it's possible to find a cash-flow property? Which are markets with reasonable REI climate? (Positive cash-flows, landlord friendly laws, etc.?)

  1. Atlanta
  2. Washington, DC
  3. Boston
  4. Newark (NYC area)
  5. New York
  6. Philadelphia
  7. Chicago
  8. Denver
  9. Austin
  10. Dallas

Thank you for sharing your opinions!

These 10 are top contenders per https://beta.techcrunch.com/2018/01/22/new-study-predicts-atlanta-has-best-shot-at-becoming-amazons-hq2/

 Atlanta is all but out of the running because the state government attacked one of their largest employers... Delta Airlines.  They have shown they are neither business friendly or trust worthy.

Originally posted by @Victor Tatyanin :

Hello, is anyone seriously planning to jump on the metro as soon as the decision has been announced? I'd like to prepare, i.e. get pre-approved, build a network of potential realtors / partners, but I'm a total newbie and don't really know where to start from. 

-

 I would think it may be too late by the time the location is announced. Anyone who already owns property there will make out well. But speculators may run up the real estate prices after the fact. I suppose you could lay some groundwork in all ten of these cities. But that seems time-prohibitive.  

@Paul B.   Big players are certainly getting ready to pounce.  I think owners should probably be thinking about reducing the lengths of the options the are selling on commercial properties right now.

If it was reduced to 5 markets I would be buying options on raw land in all of them.  It is common for those options to be 6-12 months.  Raw land options are also fairly cheap.

They were out here in January for an in-depth look. Denver is in top 4 now, and I have "heard" that it will be Denver. We have 8 sites that were submitted to them. I've been looking at land, housing, whatever in those areas and putting the pieces together to mobilize if/when it's announced. I'm betting you have 24 hours to act before everyone finds out. 

@Matt M.   I know it is still up in the air.  The hedge funds are spying like crazy but have not been able to find out.

Of course it is also not clear how much of Amazon's research is really searching for the new HQ2 and how much is just good general data mining.

For example...  I do know they are interested in the concept for a hyperloop connection between Dallas and Austin.  Of course that would be a game changer for both cities.

Does that mean they are really considering Austin, or really considering Dallas, or is one of their employees just really into hyperloops, or is Jeff Bezos considering buying another Texas home, or is Amazon considering investing in hyperloops, or does Amazon think it will impact their current or future investments in Texas? or... or... or... or... or...

Amazon is so secretive it is almost impossible to know where they will go.  For example nobody knows for sure what part of their business will be based at the new headquarters.  I think their new pharmacy / insurance business will be based their among other things but that is just an educated guess.

Apparently Amazon has a Multi-Billion Government Contract for Cloud Services for the Military, and some see this as a lock for the Washington, DC area?

I do not think that will help at all.  Most of the large government contractor are not based anywhere near DC.  In fact, I do not know of any that are.

Even when the NSA headquarters had a Rockwell sign out front Rockwell was not based in DC.

Originally posted by @Victor Tatyanin :

One more piece of guess. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2018/03/...

I wonder if it's possible to find cash-flow SFHs in Northern Virgina or Montgomery County? 

 All my properties here cash flow. Probably not in the amounts y ou would like, but I make good money on them, and watch them go up in value $2k per month.

Interesting! I have condo on the market in downtown DC. I wonder if it might be time to put the listing on hold and see how things play out...

It seems like the consensus is that if they do declare that the new HQ (or one of them?) will be in a particular market, the market will appreciate rapidly. So it may be worth holding onto this. 

WSJ says today down to 3 cities....Northern Virginia, NYC, Dallas.   Tonight I hear it will be split between NYC and Dallas.  Investor recently bought a building site for them in downtown Dallas.  Not sure if that is speculation or inside knowledge.

I had hoped for Atlanta, but these games and drawn out search really turned me off. Im over it. Dont really care where it goes.