Buying SF Peninsula primary residence in 2018?

[Scott Stover]

Hi BP,

I would love to connect with BP members about buying near Palo Alto/SF Peninsula in late 2018 - Jan 2019.  What is your take on the near term, and 2-4 years out?  

A bit of background:  My wife works at Stanford Hospital and recently became a Clinical Assistant Professor.  She now is eligible for a great housing assistance program, https://fsh.stanford.edu/CE/index.shtml.  Academic medicine doesn't pay great (top software engineers make more), but at least Stanford offers this affordability program to help ease the pain of buying.

To qualify we need 10% down.  As we've both had student loans, 2 kids, and for me some job instability, we would need to borrow from family/friends to get to 10%.  I just started a new stable position so we now are on solid footing.  Perhaps my wife and I could scratch together $75-$100k (with savings, 401k loans, etc.) though looking at $200-$250k for a 10% to cover down payment/points/closing.

Even if I could borrow the money, would you recommend a primary residence purchase in 2018?   I have watched the market from the sidelines.  My personal call is that it feels like we are in year 10 of a 20-year long tech boom.  Disruptors continue to emerge (i.e. AI is on fire w many autonomous vehicle startup acquisitions), and big tech is still growing, which provides a floor on house prices.  Facebook expanding to that new tower at Willow and 101, and gobbling up all nearby buildings near HQ is front and center in my decision process.  Uber, Airbnb, Palantir have huge potential exits.  Some may have an IPO or liquidity carve-outs (Softbank).  http://fortune.com/2018/01/18/softbank-uber-deal-c...

Target:

within 5-10 mi of Stanford:

4 BR, 2BA

$2M or less