Originally posted by @Andy Sabisch :
Corey makes some good points. The ARV is essential as without an accurate ARV you are hoping the end result is what you expect. While the link you provided does not open it looks like you are looking at a property in Marion County, Oregon based on the URL. Again, do NOT use the Zestimate as your ARV as it can be off significantly in either direction. Redfin shows the value to be around what Zillow shows so the ARV may be close which means there will be other people looking at the property since it is a hot market.
The HML interest and points will eat into your profits quickly. Assuming $50K on renovations (assuming nothing major comes up in the process) and paying for much of the work to be done, the calculations from your HML are optimistic in terms of profit. Use one of the calculators out there (like here on BP) to validate the numbers . . . HMLs are usually good to sound deals off of as they look at worst case but with what you shared, not positive about the numbers. Just a rough look at the numbers I would draw a hard line in the $145K range based on 1) unknowns of what you might come across, 2) what the city of Salem might require from you (permits, outstanding amounts, etc.), 3) the high monthly carrying costs and 4) not having a solid ARV.
Looking at the auction rules, a few items to keep in mind:
1) A 25% non-refundable down payment is required for all cash sales and land sale contracts and must
be received within one hour of the end of the sale. The down payment shall be made with legal U.S.
currency; cashier check; certified check; money order; or personal check providing a cashiers check is
furnished to replace the personal check within 24 hours after the end of the sale
2) ALL PROPERTIES ARE BEING SOLD “AS IS,” WITHOUT WARRANTY AS TO THE CONDITION OF THE
TITLE AND WILL BE CONVEYED BY QUITCLAIM DEED
These may pose an issue to you and hold additional costs / expenses especially the title issues. For example, a bank owned property through Hubzu provides you with a clear title on closing . . . piece of mind that there is not something waiting in teh wings.
There is money to be made but is this the one you want to go after? As the old Kung Fu show used to say "Choose wisely Grasshopper" :)
That is very true - I started looking into the tax implications of flipping houses and it seems like it might even be smarter for me to hold on to the property and rent it out for a while before selling it to avoid the tax hit, although I realize I'd have to refinance once rehab is completed to get out of the hard money loan.