Inventory Predictions for Note Investors -- 2nd half of 2022

[Jamie Bateman]

Note investors, if you are brave enough to get out your crystal ball and share your thoughts...

I am curious to hear what others think the note space will look like during the 2nd half of the year, especially with regard to deal flow. More of the same? A flood of NPLs? Pricing changes? A shift toward seller-financed vs. institutional? More NPLs vs. performing loans available? 

Also, are you making any changes to your business strategy or investing approach based on likely changes in market conditions? 

[Chris Seveney]

@Jamie Bateman

I don’t think we will see a flood of assets. Over the past month I have seen some higher portfolios come out and higher valued assets. I think we will continue to see this continue.

I see pricing as softening slightly - those still attempting to sell off of total payoff will have to come back to reality if they truly want to move assets.

Those with only $20-$50k to invest will still see low levels of inventory, people with $500k will have easier time deploying it.

Interesting item to point out as well is I put out a tape with some low balance assets and have received only a few bids. So I am curious if a lot of mom and pop investors have moved away from notes due to lack of inventory

Side note: I would be very weery if land notes in the coming year as we see housing soften land typically has highest delinquency because of its illiquidity and volatile pricing compared to other forms of real estate