Newbie running BRRRR numbers in FW, criticism welcome!
Seeking advice/criticism on the numbers I'm running for a certain property. I want to make sure I am looking at the right resources for projected rent, ARV/comps, and make sure my repair estimates are not completely off. The numbers seem to be very good on a certain MLS deal I've found which leads me to question: if the numbers look this good, how did this even make it to the MLS without being snapped up, much less sit on the MLS for 15 days!? This led me to question my rent estimate resources and ARV estimates... Hoping to find out from the community if my numbers are off, how can I improve where I get the numbers to refine my number crunching process in the future.
Okay enough prologue, here's the deal:
3003 Finley St, Fort Worth, TX, 76111 (United Riverside)
4 bed, 2 bath, 1570sf, built 1951
Asking $84,900
Estimating $25,000 in repairs (roof is 2 years old) needs: vinyl floors, new countertops, appliances, HVAC, possibly re-wiring, trim/doors, and paint.
Estimated ARV: $150,000 (I base this on 3 bed 2 bath comps ~1350sf only a few blocks away selling for $159k to $185k, roughly $100/sf to me seemed like a conservative estimate)
Estimated rent $1400/month (I based this on Fair Market Rent chart for 76111 from section 8 housing which lists 3 bed at $1350 and 4 bed at $1720, plus several 3 bed 2 bath rentals currently available a few blocks away at $1350/month)
Running BRRR numbers with $80k cash purchase, $25k rehab, refinance at $105k, %10 capex/repairs, 10% vacancy, 10% management fees led to a monthly net cash flow of about $200.
Is there something I am missing about this deal that I need to account for? Neighborhood doesn't seem like a war zone, is it? Is $1400/month rent way off? My ARV off?
Or are my numbers pretty solid and I just announced a deal to the entire BiggerPockets community that has somehow slipped through the cracks thus far?