Peak of the market: gurus everywhere

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Something I remember reading in Josh Dorkin's book, about economic cycles, is that one sign you're in the Peak Phase of a real estate market is that there are real estate gurus everywhere.

I can't stop seeing this now.

All of my social media feeds are constantly inundated with real estate gurus. Has anyone else noticed this?

Or is it that they just know I'm always reading about real estate and so those are the profiles they show me. 

Has anyone noticed a spike in "Gurus" or is it just me?

@Ross Bowman - I completely agree with you.  There is no doubt that some of what you are seeing is influenced by your viewing profile, but the sheer number of gurus is staggering.  Its a cycle phase for sure. 


@Ross Bowman you mention to seeing this more and more in your social media. There is some significant social media documentaries you need to go watch, pretty sure it was on Netflix. What your experiencing is literally by design, and it's how all social media is designed. 

It started with a logical premise, that to gain in users, create algorithms that adjust content shown to users to be more of what the user "wants" to see and less of what they don't. The issue is it creates a feedback loop, that is the problem for us humans and society, not for the companies and their advertising dollars. 

The programs read your engagement, at a level that would make most people gasp. Than it starts adjusting the content your seeing, when your seeing it, how your seeing it. And it tests your response to these changes, constantly refining to achieve their goal of your maximal engagement on platform. 

Think of it this way, your just a digital cow, that's it that's all, a digital cow that social media is striving to find how to most efficiently milk you for ever increasing minutes and hours per day, until every second of your life is devoted unto their platform engaging, because that's how they make $$$$, via your engagement. 

So in the end, it cares nothing for your self as a human person, your experience, growth nothing, it's about finding the perfect sound-chamber for you that keeps you pinging non-stop. So when you start engaging in REI Gurus, yup, it's gonna feed you more and more and MORE AND MORE until you go for something else. It's just feeding the cow to keep it on the milking floor.

@Ross Bowman and for anyone else interested, my favorite way to keep up with these gurus is on the Instagram account @ballerbusters - they are doing great work cleaning up the digital streets. Actually, check out this NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/1... 

But I also agree with @James Hamling - definitely watch "The Social Dilemma" on Netflix. It will absolutely make you think!

I am new to the industry and a bit overwhelmed by the amount of gurus on social media. In my market and personally, I only know of a couple of them but since I spend most of my time online these days, it seems like I cant get away from gurus. I have noticed its also really bad with stock market because everyone is making money on that as well. Every friend I have right now that uses Robinhood has been making money outside of the few who use options.

I am a appraiser in Florida.  The best metric to watch is local sales and listings.  If sales are increasing and listing decreasing not hard to see.  But watch for when either or both happen.  Sales start to slow and/or inventory is increasing.  Sort or research based on the property type you invest in.  Every month call your realtor and get updates on different areas of town the whole town.  You need to see the data.  I could tell the market had started turning in the end of 05 in my market.  Couldn't believe I was the only one seeing this but I was fixing to buy a large package of lots and start a development.  Best thing I ever did was nothing.  To this day I see most appraiser don't even considered this data. 

So, I am just about to close on another apartment community, and if @Joshua Dorkin is right, I am in trouble...

Josh - am I in trouble? Lol

There are actually far fewer gurus today than at certain points in the past, you're just too young to know any different :)

Having said this - what is the point of this post? Are you telling us that you are too late to the party, not buying and waiting for the cycle to change? If not that, what are you saying?

It is a fact that information, in general, is more accessible. With a click of a few buttons, we can share our thoughts with someone across the globe and instantly connect with them! Or make an enemy, haha.

When I was about 13 (2012), no one I knew tried making money through these social media platforms. And nine years later, I would say that 20% of my friends have been attempting to sell something on Facebook or Instagram. The media have changed so much.

The spike of gurus on social media platforms is only getting higher.

Facebook and Instagram are helping promote them. But can you blame them? A person's time is their most valuable asset. And if a product or person keeps your attention for x amount of time, FB and Insta will keep showing you that content. We are stuck in loops of the content we have "asked for."

Everyone has seen a guru, and some people try it out. But the successful ones win the algorithm and catch their audience's engagement. Or they pay for their followers and trick people into believing their BS product/Get Rich Quick schemes. Either or, I see what you are talking about, Ross!

I remember reading the same thing about the Stock Market. A 30 year veteran in the stock market put it like this. 

"In a bull market, everyone's a genius"

I also feel I have seen a massive spike in Dropshipping/AmazonFBA/Day trading/Forex/Crypto guru's on my own feeds. *Shrugs*

People are stuck at home and trying new things. Then there are people trying to capitalize on those same people stuck at home and trying new things. Rinse, wash, repeat. They are always there, in every economic cycle. 

Where's my Amway/Herbalife reps at? Likewise, where's my "New System for Getting 1 MILLION DOLLARS from rentals in as little as 3 months"?


@Ross Bowman that should not be the only gauge on the market, trends and a bubble bursting. It should be followed up with some data research and facts. That being said, the industry as a whole does seem to have more gurus coming into the space and there seems to be more people picking up their real estate license that do not really have a reason for doing so just that they can potentially make a ton of money doing so. 

I would chalk this up to that thing that Tony Robbins talks about the reticular activating system, oh and just social media as a whole like @James Hamling mentioned about it being by design. Keep your pulse on the market, what credible economist are saying and credible people in the market are saying as well.  

 

There is an old saying, "when the student is ready, the teacher will appear". A guru is just a teacher or expert in a given area. As anyone focuses more on investing, they will naturally see more guru "appear". The guru were always there, you just didn't notice them or they didn't notice you. This speaks more about individual focus, then it does the market.

There is an old quote from Joseph Kennedy, JFK's father. He pulled his money out of the stock market prior to the 1929 crash. During the great depression he became extremely wealthy by investing in real estate. 

He was quoted as saying:
‘When the time comes that a shoeshine boy knows as much as I do about what is going on in the stock market, tells me so, and is entirely correct, there’s something wrong with either me or the market, and it’s time for me to get out.’

Be less concerned about guru and more concerned when the average person thinks they are expert.

No, gurus have always been everywhere now it has just been augmented by the Internet (Social Media) AND more sinisterly by artificial intelligence (AI), which now knows that you are interested in #RealEstate so it will continue to bombard you with Real Estate related content including guru marketing. Don't fall for the trap! 

Yes there are more gurus out there now, but there are also a lot more "new investors" who want to be serviced. I get several emails and phone calls a week from someone out of state how wants to invest in Milwaukee. It's amazing how green some of these people are. With some I don't know what to tell them, their expectations are so unrealistic - and they want to do it all remote, or better yet let me do it for them. That's where the gurus come in.

I always recommend to invest in your backyard. Out of State is hard! it's hard when you are local! Yes I do work with OOS, but they are experienced and know what they want.

I have launched a small YouTube channel last year to talk about the local market, the economy and trends in real estate. I have learned all the tricks to grow a monetized channel - all I'd have to do (and not going to do) to blow up is produce a series of "market crash" videos. You can gain a huge audience by telling them exactly what they want to hear. Sounds familiar?

In a way the system punishes me for sticking to the boring truth. We have a social media problem, as mentioned above: we are like teenagers who have discovered alcohol, but don't know how to manage it.

i doubt we're near the proverbial "top" just yet. inventory is very tight and good deals are not going to just fall into your lap. ignore the noise (i.e., the online gurus) and educate yourself. if it sounds too good to be true, it most likely is. 

What worries me more is when a lot of BP poster wants to buy 6 figure house with other people money. Perhaps guru is not the problem but Biggerpocket is the problem :) ha ha 

@Ross Bowman yes, you’re spot on. It’s a little of social media providers stalking your every move (please don’t hurt me for typing this Zuckerburg!) while also the gurus who are doing videos from their basements and garages trying to sound like bagillionaires who found the easy secret to success are coming out of every corner of the earth.

Definitely a time for extreme skepticism in my opinion as a newbie.

The other indicator I have seen is, if people start saying "Real Estate prices never go down!!!!" And they seem overly excited. That tells me a downturn is nearly here :)  That's what happened in the last great downturn.