New Orleans Ranked “Worst” Market – Why That Might Be a Buy Signal

[Stephen Keighery]

Another week, another headline calling Louisiana real estate a disaster. First it was a University of Mississippi study ranking New Orleans dead last out of 100 U.S. housing markets based on long-term, inflation-adjusted home prices. Now Zillow is projecting home value declines of 6–9% across cities like New Orleans, Lafayette, Houma, and Lake Charles.

And to be honest… I don’t disagree with the data. I’ve been investing full-time across South Louisiana for several years, and I’ve had to adjust my buy box more than once to stay aligned with the market.

But here’s the thing: I actually think the market is so bad, it’s good.

Here’s why I’m leaning in while most others are pulling back:

✅ Prices are discounted
New Orleans homes are ~14% below their inflation-adjusted trend. Sellers are finally negotiable. No more bidding wars or inspection waivers. You can actually structure a deal.

✅ Rents are holding strong
Despite all the negative press, rents have been stable or even rising in many areas. The price-to-rent ratio here is low — meaning great cash flow potential if you're buying right.

✅ Insurance pain is real — but stabilizing
Rates are still high, but they’re no longer unpredictable. I can underwrite with real numbers now, not guesswork.

✅ Sentiment is at rock bottom
Almost every investor I know locally is sitting on the sidelines. In my experience, that’s usually when the best long-term deals get made.

If you’re looking for a quick flip, this probably isn’t your market.

But if you have a 3–5 year horizon and a strong local network, this market is full of opportunity. You just have to be willing to go against the herd.

Curious to hear from others:
Are you seeing similar trends in your markets?
Would you consider buying in a place like New Orleans because of the bad headlines—or are you waiting for stronger signals?

[Greg Scott]

I've done very well being a contrarian investor.  I"m also from Metro Detroit.  

Real estate in the city of Detroit started to go down in the 60s.  Was that a good time to buy?  How about the 70s?  80s? 90s?  Arguably, you did OK if you bought in the 2000s after 4 decades of things going the wrong way.

Being down is not buy signal.  Ask all those buggy whip manufacturers from 150 years ago.

On the other hand, if population is growing and jobs are growing, eventually things have to turn.  You did not mention those metrics in your post.  If the fundamentals of NOLA are strong but the sentiment is bad, THAT is a buy signal.