Why This Market Feels Like 2010 All Over Again

Question

After 20 years in this business, the current market feels a lot like 2010—when investors slowly started coming back after the crash. Back then, prices were low, motivation was high, and the smart investors who stepped in early ended up with the best deals of the decade.

Today, I’m seeing similar signs. In many parts of Florida, prices are down 20 to 25 percent. Sellers are finally more negotiable. At the same time, rental demand hasn’t gone anywhere—tenants are still showing up, and rents are still holding strong. After years of struggling to find properties that meet the 1% rule, I’m finally seeing deals that make sense again. And when you layer in subject-to and creative finance? Some of these plays are giving us infinite returns.

To me, long-term rentals are the quiet winners right now. The short-term space is saturated, the regulations are tightening, and a lot of people are stuck chasing the next flashy thing. I’d rather stick with what actually cash flows.

What are you seeing in your market right now? Are you leaning short-term, long-term, or sitting on the sidelines?

Dan H. · Answer

In 2010 3% rent to cost ratios were possible and 2% was easy to find (why the rule was initially the 2% rule) when 1% would have cash flowed.

Today in some markets you can find 1% ratio but at today’s rates these are still negative cash flowed at high LTV with proper underwriting.

In 2010 virtually all residential purchases cash flowed. In 2025 it is a rare residential property that cash flows with proper underwriting.

anyone that thinks today’s market is similar to 2010 is delusional.

Best wishes

Jay Hinrichs · Answer

IMHO not even close to 09 2010 prices in SWFA were down 50 to 80% in many areas. as well as other parts of the country and financing was completely frozen for all but the 1% ers for any kind of inestment props.. FEDS shut down the banks ability to loan as they had to much exposure to toxic RE loans.  Its a dip no question but like the GFC nope not in my mind

Jaron Walling · Answer

@Jorge Vazquez LTR, BRRRR, or starter home flip opportunities for the win this year.

Indiana has big events, conferences, and growth, but it's not a top destination city in my opinion. The strategy is sexy and trendy but with a family and 9-5 jobs buying a STR hasn't crossed our minds. If we did it would be OOS in a mountain town with more tourism.

It's a valid idea further south (prettier area of the state), nice lake houses, or close to one of the big state parks, but in those locations the purchase prices are easily $400-800k. If vacation demand drops or gets inconsistent you're in trouble.

Marcus Auerbach · Answer

It seems to me that FL is just pricing in much higher insurance costs.

A lot of markets in the South and also West are correcting now, Florida and Texas are being hit the hardest. Miami Dade is probably the worst, and the Keys, but Tampa is still holding on, prices are actually up 1.7% this month. Maybe you can negotiate 20% on a single deal, but that's not across the market. 2010 felt way different.

Jorge Vazquez · Answer

Thanks Jay, totally agree—2010 had way deeper scars in terms of pricing and lending. I lost 22 properties back then, so I’ll never forget how bad it was. This isn’t the GFC, no doubt. But what I’m noticing is that same early-stage shift in behavior—sellers finally negotiating, buyers getting creative, and fewer players at the table. Not a copy, just familiar energy. Appreciate your insights, as always.

Nick C. · Answer

I don't see it. In 2010 there no buyers, no lenders, and deals everywhere. Sure inventory is up now, but it's overpriced junk. In 2010 our market was flooded with amazing deals; 3/2 CBS houses for $40k that rent for $1200. No chance you're getting that here these days. That same house would be listed for $300k today and rent for $2000 and sit on the market for a year.

In 2010 house flipping was very difficult because buyers couldn't get a loan from a bank. Today it's the opposite, more flips make sense than rentals.

Mike Dymski · Answer

In 2010, lending was shut down, foreclosures were at record levels, interest rates were low, and prices crashed as never before.  Housing affordability was at record highs in 2010 and is currently near record lows.

Amber Stout · Answer

Hi Jorge, I'm seeing sellers much more willing to negotiate on price and concessions right now. On the lending side, we're able to use those concessions to buy the rate down or get lower closing costs which helps COC and/or cash flow which is great + the prices are lower offering better deals. My personal rental properties have been fully occupied and rentals are still in demand which is great. I absolutely think the next couple months are a great time to scoop up some deals.

Jaron Walling · Answer

Thanks man.

Jay Michalec · Answer

I am seeing several short-term landlords reaching out asking to convert their property to a long-term term for several reasons.1. Economic uncertainty - STRs are a nice to visit, while an LTR is a need to have for tenants.2. As previously mentioned, more and more regulations are being placed on STRs3. Here, most areas good for STRs are the same that are prone to hurricanes, and investors are still wary of this from last year's damage.

Why This Market Feels Like 2010 All Over Again

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