All Forum Posts by: AJ Wong

 15-20% decline in prices from the peak and lowest level of home sales since the great recession.

Hey AJ, I am not following.  Portland, Seattle, San Fran, LA are all down 15-20% from the peak.  I have a big project in PHX in process; so, am bullish on opportunities but there has definitely been a freeze on the west coast with historically low transaction levels.

This property is eligible for vacation rental. In fact I took STR permit for this property before county stopped issuing new permits.

Timber and Timber land values change greatly by location.  With the PNW some of the most valuable timber land in the world.  So even 8 year old reprod would have a timber value out this way.  U simply need a forester who is known in the area and have them do a timber cruise.  they can do one via airial photos and sample plots or they can plot the entire property  ( which will cost more )  Not sure todays rates but from years past a 200 acre cruise depending on the method could be 2k to 7k pretty easy.. If it has Redwood ( Highly valuable) then your talking southern oregon coast.  There will be Foresters in Grants Pass or Medford that I  am sure service the area and maybe Coos Bay.  The value will depend on how much of each species is merch and or current age and the growing site IE how fast will the Timber grow in that specific location. As you know this VARIES hugely in the NW so its site specific..  then also will come down to how mountainous it is. Can it be ground logged or do you need to tower log or helicopter log the coast as you know can be some steep rough terrain.. Along with the road system if any and access to county roads.  Timber back east in most areas is on fairly level ground so they pretty much can feller bunch it and mow it down like grass.

I just went through the appraisal process on 114 acres of timberland in Alabama I just purchased. The land has two values that are combined for one overall value: surface value and timber value if it were harvested at that time. I have timber on my land but it's only 8 years old and has no commercial value (yet). So my land was only appraised on the surface value. Whoever you hire to perform the appraisal...make sure they are certified by the state and have experience with land/timber...get a copy of the appraisal too. They might bring in a forester to assist for an extra fee but I found it was totally worth it. 

Like you, I'm very interested in carbon credits as well. I want this land to cashflow as soon as possible. Let me know if you have any other questions, I'm learning as well:)

I don't know about OR and CA specifically but a "thawing" market seems a more appropriate description than an "exploding" market.  Real estate activity will be slow in 2023 in most markets.

The Fed is going to keep rates high and liquidate their huge balance sheet as long as they can.  They are sitting pretty right now and liquidating $95 billion per month and it has yet to crash the economy, the job market, or the real estate market (the last of which they don't specifically care about).  The job market already lost a whopping 5-10 million workers (3-6% of the workforce) to mass early retirement, aging boomers, no immigration for 1.5 years, long-covid disability claims, and excess deaths.  Driving another few million workers out of the workforce hasn't happened yet and is not going to be easy.  The government increased the money supply by $7 trillion (that's not a typo); so, they have a long way to go to vacuum up that mess and will stay tight as long as they can.

Buyers are getting quoted 5.5% right now. It was only a matter of time before they came back out. It only makes sense with the lack of inventory.

I dont think its sustainable, though. We should see inflation tick back up. 

My uneducated guess is this is the last hoorah before we see inventory pick up, and prices fall off a cliff. People are over spending in all areas of their life. Some home values have doubled in a short 5 years. Thats not normal. History repeats itself, and that certainly isnt an example.

The people that told me not to buy back in 2017, are the ones who are screaming BUY NOW. That gives me a clear indication of whats really going on. 

I walked away from a duplex in denver recently, they had another offer with an "unlimited escalation clause" and "large appraisal gap". 

I am listing my investment property next week. This is from Southern California, riverside county. The house is on a tourist destination, on mountains. I have been fixing up the house for several months now. Lets see how this journey unfolds. 

The Real Estate market has been experiencing an unprecedented surge in prices due to the lack of inventory. Buyers are now being quoted 5.5%, which is a huge jump from two years ago.

Yet, I'm not convinced that this kind of growth is sustainable in the long run. Inflation will eventually start rising, and this could lead to a drop in Real Estate prices when more homes come on the market. Furthermore, many people seem to be overspending right now - some home values have even doubled in just five years! This isn't normal history repeating itself, so it's my opinion that we should expect Real Estate prices to fall off soon.

Those who told me not to buy Real Estate back in 2017 are now the ones screaming to buy Real Estate now. This could be a sign of people getting caught in the hype and overspending - something that I'm not willing to do without more certainty. Real Estate is an expensive investment, and it's important to research thoroughly before making any big decisions.

The Real Estate market has been boom-and-bust for decades, so it's best to proceed with caution when investing in the property market. Doing your own research, reading up on trends, and obtaining professional help can all contribute towards making smart Real Estate investments that will pay off in the long run.

It may seem tempting to jump on board the current Real Estate wave, but remember: don't let the hype dictate your Real Estate decisions. Instead, take a step back and evaluate your options carefully before committing to any big purchases. Good luck!