All Forum Posts by: Andrew Postell

@Austin Fowler always here to help.  Reach out any time.

The bond market is surging this morning following a decisively weak August employment report, which showed just 22,000 jobs added—a far cry from the 80,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, and June’s payrolls were revised downward to a loss of 13,000, marking the first monthly decline since December 2020.

This data has sharpened the dovish tilt in rate expectations. Treasury yields are markedly lower, led by the 10-year note, which is trading at 4.06%, down from its summer range of 4.20% to 4.50%. Mortgage bonds are rallying in tandem, with UMBS 6s up 8 ticks, trading in the mid-102s, and 5.5s gaining traction as the new current coupon.

Fed Funds futures now reflect a near-certainty of a rate cut at the November or December FOMC meetings, with some strategists even floating the possibility of a half-point cut if labor softness deepens.

According to RBC Capital Markets, markets were already positioned for a soft print—but today’s report exceeded expectations for weakness, reinforcing the Fed’s pivot narrative. The Fed’s dual mandate is now in sharper focus. With inflation pressures easing and employment faltering, the central bank may shift its emphasis from price stability to labor market support. The latest Beige Book confirms that seven of twelve Fed districts are seeing hiring hesitancy due to weaker demand and economic uncertainty.

Strategists at ALM First note that the bond market has now priced in an additional 25 basis points of easing over the next 12–18 months, fully baking in a September cut and laying the groundwork for further accommodation.

@Mohammad Murad 100% agree with above statement.  This is no loophole.  This is code and your CPA should be providing you guidance on it.

@Linda Luna thanks for the post!  I wish that Bigger Pockets was around when I got started.  It was really difficult to find anyone that was an investor.  However, now, we have multiple outlets that can help us connect with others.  So, let's try some local real estate meetup groups. Meetup.com is a good resource for those but some of the groups will also post here on Bigger Pockets Marketplace too. Even facebook might have some good local groups for you. Some of those facebook groups have thousands of members. The priority is consistent recommendations from active investors. Oh, eventbrite too. But post locally for this. That’s the best bet.

@Mohammad Murad what Short Term Rental Loophole are you speaking about?

@Scott Williams thanks or the post.  This is a common question for many investors (or would be investors).  Usually when we speak to "what is best for me" it turns into a monetary discussion on what is actually possible.  Now, some of this might be a personal discussion that's not very indicative in a public forum.  So, a couple of theoretical questions:

Are you ok just moving to a new property?  Because if so, that's only 5% down to buy another primary home. That's a pretty low cost committment.

Do you have any contractor bids to renovate your current home?  If so, will you be financing it in cash?  Or with a loan?  

If you are using a new loan to finance, have you factored that in to your "cashflow equation"?

One of the bigger items I would say to think about is if you are using your own money for the renovations...sometimes it's a little hard to get that money back out of a property.  Since you are so close to retirement age, I would think to try to keep as much of your money as possible.

Some of this might be WAY off base so feel free to reach ut if you want to talk anything through.  Thanks!

@Rafael Ro so, a single family home will have more cap ex/repair costs because things like roof and foundation are on the home owner but since a condo, yours will be lower (since the COA fees kind of cover those). So, I would use 15% for my complete expense ratio.  Meaning, from my rent, I get 85% of the rent.  Hope all of that makes sense.

@Eric Fernandez Hmm, so your current HML is at $85k? Do I have that right? That means, you still have to refinance out of that loan into your permanent loan. So, your loan balance will increase when you do that. Some investment property HELOCs will go to 75% of the ARV...but most are only at 70% ARV. So, if $132k x 70% = $92,400...that's not really enough room for a HELOC. However, if you can just do a cash out refinance when you do your permanent refinance, that will probably be best.

Hope all of that math makes sense but let me know if I'm off on something.  Thanks!

@Amanda Moskowitz thanks for the post!  I invested in Jacksonville, Florida for many years.  Love that market.  Now, if you are looking to connect with local investors there, then let's go local for it! 

So, let's try some local real estate meetup groups. Meetup.com is a good resource for those but some of the groups will also post here on Bigger Pockets Marketplace too. Even facebook might have some good local groups for you. Some of those facebook groups have thousands of members. The priority is consistent recommendations from active investors. Oh, eventbrite too. But post locally for this. That’s the best bet.

@Kelly Schroeder yes, ANY strategy can work with the BRRRR Method really. If you BUY right...it will all work. But the reality is that it's all really hard. So, in the new construction world, you'll need considerable capital to float certain stages of the construction. You'll also have to find a lender that's ok with no new construction experience. And if you can't find that, then you'll need a partner (that will eat into your profit). And that's before we even talk about buying the land, contractors, etc. So, if I am purchasing off market properties...now I can do that without experience. I don't need a partner. I also won't need a ton of capital either. That is, as long as I buy right. Again, it's all hard but I think the part of buying a challenged property off market is easier to work than new construction. You can certainly make either strategy (and others) work though.