All Forum Posts by: Brian Barch

Inflation is typically measured in YoY% growth. At some point, when we hit the new year, we are going to be lapping such strong numbers from early 2022, that despite absolute costs, YoY growth is going to be minuscule. That alone might solve the perception that inflation is still rampant.

 I can’t stomach those association due every time I look at them!

We would love to STR/personal vacation condo in Hilton head. How's the seasonality/slow season?

 I live in the north ATL metro. If you want water or a view, you are pretty much looking at $400k+. There are some in the $325 - $400k range, but the view may be seasonal, or the house small and undersized.

I agree that you want a view to stand out in this market. 

Ellijay only has views east of 575 for the most part. Look into cherry log, mineral bluff, and Morganton 

I live in GA. I love the GA coast for its history. But it’s not really known for/as a good beach destination. I’ve been to places like Tybee, but the water is brown. 

I’ll give you some places to look as the local populace around me has a pretty good understanding of the good places. 

Disclaimer, I have no idea the current regulations in these areas:

myrtle beach/grand strand

Hilton head

Jacksonville/cinnamon beach

30A/Navarre/destin/perdido key

Orange beach

Tampa area

I know this is a simple response, but I do think occupancy rates are a decent proxy. At least a starting point. 

Ultimately anyone getting into an STR needs to:

1) be able to weather the short term (ramp up period, slow months, etc)

2) buy for the long term

Asking about 2023 is great for discussion sake, so I enjoy the question. But ultimately real estate has high transaction costs. So one should really ask, what’s the outlook from now until 2030?

That takes the pressure off this idea that you need to buy a property that puts $2k in your pocket your first month. Bill market/bear market, that’s a bad strategy for either one

I second the use of awning.com. They even have a plug-in tool for Zillow that will really speed up your process.

too early to tell how accurate airdna and awning are. I think they are great at analyzing a MARKET. 

You will never have 100% surety. The tools we have today are better than ever in history. At some point run the numbers from several conservative angles, and move in the direction the numbers point you

I’ll echo others, there is not a best time to buy. Timing the market in real estate is no less futile than the stock market.

Sure I wish I bought in 2020, but remember one had to be pretty ballsy to buy in 2020 given the circumstances. I’m sure there were 1,000 reasons not to buy in that year at the time.

I think driveable vacation markets near large cities will continue to hold up. Find good properties with figurative moats around them (lake, Mountain View, proximity to attractions, etc.) use conservative projections and move forward

Perhaps this will be an unpopular opinion…..

I would either: think of this purely from an investment lens, in which case owning cross country is fine….

Or

Treat this as a vacation/investment, and make it driving distance.

My worry is that you’ll buy a place in say FL, you’ll fly there twice/year. And because you own and rent the place, you’ll feel a need to “work” on your vacation. It’s human nature to go there and want to spruce it up, redecorate, do deferred maintenance, etc, and that’s not really how I want to spend my vacation.

If it’s driving distance, you can realistically visit 6+ times/year, and get to actually enjoy the place.