All Forum Posts by: Chris Grenzig

@Venus Dyk welcome to BP! We lived in Jax for 3 years before recently moving back to the Orlando area to be closer to family. We own and operate a few multifamily properties and also 3rd party manage for other owners with properties 1-80 units including single family, condo's, townhomes, etc in both the Jacksonville and Orlando areas. If I can ever be of any assistance please let me know!

@Kwame Locks in addition to the advice of going to meetups, here's one strategy I think that would help you find someone to mentor you.

As you go to the meetups meet as many people as you can, try and find more about their business so you have a rough idea of what they do and focus on, but more importantly try and ask them what problems they currently have or what they're struggling with. 

Now most flippers will say deals or money, so see if there's anything beyond that. Maybe they wish they were doing more social media, maybe they wish someone would help with their calendar/inbox, maybe someone wants to start their own meetup, maybe they need help paying invoices and bills, maybe it's they need someone to drive them around so they can work instead of driving. 

Then, find the 2-4 people you resonate with the most and make them specific proposals. Something like I want to learn from you about X, and I can help you in return by doing helping find deals, Y & Z. Make X, Y & Z specific to that person.

It takes a lot more time, and more thought, but if you do that I would almost guarantee you'd find someone in a couple of months. 

@Victor Del Hierro Orlando and a lot of Florida is going to be a tough market right now in the short term, but I think if you investment term is longer than it could make sense. Firstly, like many mentioned $20k is not going to be enough, and in my opinion you might need to put down around 30-40% to make a property cash flow at all, unless it's in a C-/D area then maybe you could do less. Your NOI even for single-family properties is flat or falling because of the high supply and continually rising expenses (especially insurance, labor, and interest rates but those seemed to have plateaued). On top of that, since Orlando is a heavy appreciation market anyway, cash flow is always on the lower end compared to areas like the Midwest US. So flat or falling rents, rising expenses, and high asset prices make it tough to cash flow and would probably require a higher down payment, especially if using a DSCR loan.

However, over the long term, despite the past 2-4 years of very high new supply, new construction starts are way down. So as these developments get completed and apartment buildings lease up over the next 1-2 years, the pipeline then dries up. I've seen some people saying it's back below 2018 levels, but I can't confirm that myself. So that means that we should then see supply drop and demand start to increase more which should lead to more rent growth, appreciation, etc. Everything I see forecasts continued strong population and job growth for Florida which is the backbone of demand for residential housing especially rentals. 

I also watched Peter Linnenman yesterday on the Walker & Dunlop podcast and he predicts 3 rate cuts the end of this year as lagging rental data in CPI starts to hit, and he also thinks a recession is several years off. It was a very interesting perspective and he is very highly regarded as well.

I tend to personally feel the next 2 years are going to be mostly a lot of the same as now, operating properties to maintain rather than growing a ton. However, I could see that changing in the next 18-36 months, and as someone else mentioned, maybe you are able to get some sort of a discount today and in 3-4 years you look like a genius. 

@Aaron Rodante welcome in! We specialize in 1-80 residential property management in the Orlando and Jacksonville, FL areas. If I can ever be of help just let me know! We also own some multifamily ourselves, so we're both owners/operators and 3rd party property management for other owners

 @Joseph Davini I'm more in the multifamily space than single-family space, we own and operate a few multifamily properties in Jacksonville but we do manage some single-family rentals as well, so I'll be speaking from that space. New supply hit all-time highs or very close to it for many cities in the state. While Florida still has great population and job growth and the economy is overall in good shape with low unemployment, we had more supply than we've had in years and it hit places. Rents stagnated or dropped in most areas, and this is on top of all the rising costs, especially insurance and interest rates. The market is kind of in a stalemate with owners who aren't forced or want to sell just holding on, and buyers waiting for deals at prices that make sense. There hasn't been this huge wave of foreclosures or short sales as people are hanging on, doing cash-in refi's or doing work outs with lenders. There are definitely some deals being foreclosed on, but it's the minority and it's happening slowly. 

From a single family buying perspective, my only experience has been buying a new home 6 months ago, selling our current home, and talking with people I know. My impression is everyone thinks costs are up, more and more people are fine with renting right now, and those that want to buy new homes aren't in as much of a rush. One family member wants to move to get into better schools, but they don't want to give up their 4% rate and they're fine right now to continue to hold off, keep looking and wait for the next couple for years. 

My insurance guy for the past 2.5 years has been at wits end because he had to continue to deliver bad news on referrals and estimates for new properties. Only in the last 3-4 months has he said he's seen some light at the end of the tunnel and they're starting to see minor insurance premium relief on properties, but it's for the best of the best assets (New construction, concrete block, 250+ units, etc). Eventually we kind of both agreed this will trickle down to other assets (speaking from the multifamily side), so I would imagine a similar thing will happen with single family. Insurance is a market like any other. I think it will swing back, but I doubt we're getting back to 2018 levels given the rise in asset prices, rise in construction costs, material costs, labor costs, etc. 

@Eric Starks got it that makes sense. I appreciate the info on the meetup!

@Eric Starks this looks great, I’m definitely going to try and go. Do you plan on going?

@David Niles thanks I'll check it out and reply

@David Ramirez thanks I'll definitely check it out, might be a little far, but we've talked about heading out that way at some point just to see the city more, so maybe we'll make it a work trip

@Omer Bader thanks I'll keep it in mind. 

@Alex Zweydoff sounds great I'll shoot you an email