All Forum Posts by: Darius A.

Will know more tomorrow but last I checked the “dot plots” fed is telling the market rates will stay higher for longer.

@Melanie Johnston

Agreed, tough at this point to gauge where the dust will settle after housing peaked in the spring/summer of 2022. Patience and dry powder 😊

GS thinks Phoenix and a few other cities are in for some pain.

https://thehill.com/homenews/3832410-goldman-sachs-says-4-cities-likely-to-see-a-2008-style-housing-crash-report/amp/

Any one know more about this? I've heard about theories that the RE industry could see a mass voluntary exodus but this is one angle I haven't heard. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news...

Sounds like you have some relatively honest realtors. Look at the data, everything points to further deflation in the housing market. Massive slow down in sales and price cuts galore. 

Housing is not like the stock market, it lags and the impact of rates takes quite some time to hit. Many experts are calling for housing prices to drop significantly in 2023.

Examples of price cuts in SW Florida. 

@Daniel Kaplan

As everyone pointed out the first hurdle would be getting the LL to approve, which is a tough sell.

To me the bigger question assuming the LL approves is on the demand side, what gives you the confidence that you’ll be able to find tenants to stay in that type of living situation? I get that it’s a college town and all but I would not make the assumption that you’ll be able to fill all of those units. A certain % of them sure but then that begs the question what kind of tenant would this attract and is the LL up for the risk/headache. From the LLs perspective they’re still making money even though the students are going away for a few months, put yourself in the LLs shoes.

@Patricia Soto

While people are pointing to seasonality, marketing, etc., no one is pointing out the macro conditions- Housing demand on all levels is plummeting (buying and renting).

Q3 was the worst leasing demand for apartments since 2009. It’s counterintuitive that rental demand would drop as buying demand is plummeting but this could signal significant weakness in the economy. The silver lining is this could signal deflation in the housing and rental markets.

https://therealdeal.com/2022/10/25/soaring-rents-sink-apartment-demand-to-13-year-low/amp/

Becoming a real estate agent has a low barrier to entry and the field as been flooded the last few years with free money and housing prices rising significantly. I'm not suggesting one way or the other, but I'll leave you with two thoughts:

1) just b/c you love real estate does not mean you need to make it a career

2) with rising rates, sales slowing and a flood of new construction hitting the market, it's possible the next few years in RE will look very different than the last decade

@Sam Abraham

Until the fed actually raises rates above the true rate of inflation people should be very worried about it.

@Rick Albert

My hunch and two cents: most people especially in tech who could have left their high tax state have already moved. Sure there’s a few stragglers but companies let the hounds loose so to speak awhile back.

And if there are stragglers, there may not be enough to prop up demand. People are buckling down 🫣