Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
@Nicholas Varner I think a decision to invest in the SF bay area is dictated by time horizons. IE how old is the investor....
If I was in my 20's or 30's there is no question I would do every thing I could to get into a real property there.... especially if I lived and worked there .. I would see this as a absolute no brainer...
And then I would not sell my property until I was ready to retire. If I had kept the 4 homes I owned in the SF bay area.. I would not be on BP I can tell you.... first one was a new shappel home I paid 79k for in Milpitas.. worth probably 750k today.
2nd one was home in Palo Alto I paid 180k for .. worth probably 1.7k today.
3rd was another home in Palo Alto I built I was into this one more about 750k that was 89 I ended up flipping it.. 750k in 89 was a lot of money.. but any ways worth probably 2.5 today.
4th home in the Napa valley I lived in for 10 years paid 360k for worth 1.2 today...
If I would have bought homes in the mid west in those years they would have probably cost more than they do today.. and cash flow would no way equate to what my equity was. and when I sold these homes each of them garnered me almost 500k in tax free money as my personal resi's.. set up my entire life actually... So I can't subscribe to the bay area is not the place to invest.. If you live here. Now I have owned 2 homes in Portland and one appreciated 300k and the one I am in now has gone up 400k... So tell me anywhere in the mid west in SFR space that has come close to those numbers.. but its a long time horizon this all over 40 years.. would be interesting to actually run the numbers out.. but the fact that the majority of my gains were tax free blows any other type of investing out of the water
And I worked off of 20th in San Mateo for years.. commuted from Palo Alto.. one day up the 101 and other days up 280 and that's not a bad drive really.
Sorry for the long quote but I struggle with this daily...
Jay- when you say if you were in your 20s and even 30s you mean you'd buy a cash flow negative property in the Bay Area (especially desirable South Bay/ SF properties) and live in / pay off while working the traditional high paying job in tech?
Or would you maybe choose a less desirable neighborhood (east bay, south San Jose, east PA) and deal with the commute to the W2?
I live and work in/near MT View but would have to make serious financial/life changes to buy in a reasonable commutable area, and still just be riding the appreciation / equity payoff train. Truthfully, I'm just so damn scared of throwing nearly $100k on just an FHA down payment in ONE property even knowing it will very likely kick butt long term.
It's so much money into 1 investment (and your first at that!). I'm not hating, just much more waffley than a 1-200k full size family house in most regions. My 401k, Roth IRA, and options seem so much safer.
So interested in your response....