All Forum Posts by: Andrew S.
Andrew S. has started 51 posts and replied 1006 times.
Post: Tapping in to my parents home equity ???
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Mark Durham
Thanks for your response, it sounds like the CONS would be no worse than any other form of funding a real estate deal.
Except that your parents are carrying the risk and you don't seem very concerned about that.
Obviously, I have no idea as to your parents financial situation and savviness, but I can assure you that if MY children suggested I mortgage my house to finance their projects, then that conversation would be quite short.
I'm not at all against helping out your kids to get their feet on the ground financially, AS LONG AS it doesn't potentially threaten my own welfare. The roof over my head is very much part of that!
Post: Smoky Mountain Vacation Rental
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Originally posted by @Joshua Myers:
Originally posted by @Caleb Heimsoth:
Originally posted by @Joshua Myers:
Originally posted by @Caleb Heimsoth:
@John Craven I would recommend cancelling this contract. The economic recovery is going to be 1.5 - 3 years on a best case scenario. Tourism especially is going to be hit very hard.
You can see this playing out in the economic data from unemployment filings to public companies reporting earnings.
That's a bold prediction. I'm pessimistic about the outlook, but throwing out a hard time frame like that takes some real confidence. What specific economic data and which earnings reports are you using to come up with 1.5 - 3 years as your best case. And what are your base case and worst scenarios?
I couldn’t find the Forbes article that outlined all this but 1.5 - 3 years was best case scenario. Worst case was more like 12 to get back to where we were in February.
It’s going to get worse before it gets better. We’re just at the beginning, it’ll take til Q3 2020 to fully understand the economic impact.
More related to real estate investing all the major banks reported earnings this week and profit dropped ~ 50 percent on average compared to Q1 last year.
you can read on BP how lending is tightening and that’s only going to continue. As that continues prices will decrease (will vary by market). Unemployment will spike Q2 2020 and then decrease.
there is ways to predict all of this, just have to look at the data. Multiple indicators predicted a recession for this year 2-3 years ago (as an example).
Yes unemployment numbers are pretty shocking and banks have increased loan loss provisions (along with scheduled changes to accounting that had an impact on headline earnings), but there's a really big difference between saying that the economic data is ugly (and getting uglier) and putting a hard timeline on how long the recovery will take, especially when we're talking about individual markets. You say yourself that we won't understand the economic fallout until Q3, so it's hard to justify putting a timeline on any recovery.
I'm very pessimistic about the scenario, but I don't think we should be pushing hard timelines when giving buy/sell advice to fellow investors. No one, not the FED, not university and bank economists, and not even contributors to Forbes can accurately predict how long this thing will play out.
Folks, everyone who is getting hung up on whether @Caleb Heimsoth gave a hard timeline or not:
That’s not the point. Of course nobody knows the full impact and exact timeline for sure. Note that Caleb didn’t say things were back to normal (I.e. back to where they were in January 2020) by 2021-2022. He predicted that this was probably the best case scenario for full recovery, but could take many more years. I totally agree - this is the stark reality we live in right now and it doesn’t require secret sources of information to come to this conclusion, just a realistic analysis of the information available in the public domain.
Things ARE going to improve over time, but sadly, they are NOT going to back to early 2020 levels for a long time. Especially not for travel related sectors. And while the Great Smokies might be better off than other destinations, the impacts will be felt everywhere.
Post: Smoky Mountain Vacation Rental
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Originally posted by @JD Martin:
I live in the area and have for 26 years. I don't have any real great insight on the short-term rental market of GSP (Gatlinburg-Sevierville-Pigeon Forge) but I wanted to make a couple of comments about desirability.
The Great Smoky Mountains National Park has been here since 1934.
When I first moved here in 1994, you could rent a cabin in Gatlinburg for cheap - real cheap. There was virtually nothing in Sevierville and you only started hitting traffic when you got close to Dollywood, which wasn't nowhere near as built out as it is now. Most of the stuff in Gatlinburg wasn't there - it was a rickshaw conglomerate of old knick-knack and curio stores just hanging on. Since then, of course, the area has gone nuts with attractions, outlet stores, and the like.
My point is that the attractions is by and large what has drawn the massive tourist industry to the area. Yes, people like to see Clingman's Dome and do some hiking, and some kayaking, and fishing, but there's a lot of beautiful places and parks within driving distance that you can do that without suffering the crowds. If everything stays closed in Gatlinburg & Pigeon Forge I don't think you should expect to see tourism and occupancy based on hiking on the trail or visiting Cades Cove or Mt LeConte. Gatlinburg et al is just as dependent on the raft of "attractions" as virtually every other tourist attraction.
Exactly right! A lot of folks are still underestimating the economic impact this pandemic has/will have. Yes, it will end at SOME Point. Yes, there will be "early returners". But given the ongoing and looming wave of unemployment, there simply will be far fewer people able and interested in taking vacations. Even if there are reasons to think the Great Smokies will be better off than other destinations (and that is a big "if", as @JD Martin wisely points out), there will be far less vacation travel for quite some time to come. We all hope that this will blow over soon, but to think we will be back to "normal" in 90 days is quite irrational. Things may start to recover in 90 days, but it will take years to be "back to normal". Don't want to sound depressing, but this thing is bigger than ANY of us have ever experienced.
Post: Hardwood flooring: does this look like normal wear and tear?
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Originally posted by @Jack B.:
Originally posted by @William Bucklin:
@Jack B.
<snip> ....."accredited investors like me really don't care what you think or people who think the difference between the first and second set of pictures is just a lack of gloss. A 5 year old could tell it isn't..." <snip>
really?
Post: Where can I do title search for property at Sherriff Sale?
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Most (RE) attorneys can do this for you also, but it will, cost you $400-500
Post: Cozy???
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Originally posted by @JD Martin:
I like it. It's a little slow on transferring funds, about 5 days, but if you're not desperate for the money you can see it's coming as you get an e-mail that the transfer has started. They have something new (I suspect it's a bridge loan) that gets the money to you in 3 days for about a $3 charge, so that's something else to consider. If you have sketchy tenants, you might want to have your money faster.
Pretty much my experience too. I have been using them for several years now and have no complaints at all. Use them for rent payments and background checks
Post: what to do? HELOC frozen...
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Originally posted by @Anthony Dooley:
I have never heard of a line of credit being frozen. If you are unable to borrow from it, the bank makes less money. It sounds like you are worried about nothing. The good news is, you have less debt now.
I don’t have any personal experience with this but @Jay Hinrichs has warned about this on many occasions. HELOCs apparently often can (and do) get frozen/called
Post: Splitting up heat in 2 unit
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Andrew S. Thank you for the information. . . are you having any issues at all with the furnace since??
4 years in, all is fine - knock on wood.....
Post: Splitting up heat in 2 unit
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
I encountered an almost identical scenario. Since it sounds like you already have duct work in place for both apartments, you can likely just have the existing system support the larger of the two apartments and purchase another HVAC unit for the other apartment. You will need some space for the second unit, preferably close to the first unit, so that tapping in and re-routing the ductwork is minimal.
Alternatively, dedicate the existing HVAC to the larger apartment and install a mini-split system for the other.
One of the issues with both solutions is that the existing HVAC will be oversized for just the single unit, which can lead to issues with moisture removal during humid periods, but in my case, this has worked fine for several years now.
Post: Is craigslist worthless?
- Investor
- Raleigh, NC
- Posts 1,048
- Votes 708
As others said, it highly depends on the specific purpose. I don’t think I would even try to use Craigslist for my rentals in the City - too many tire kickers, crazy inquiries, spamsters/fraudsters. That said, Over the past 18 months, I sold three different plots of mountain land in Western North Carolina by just posting a couple of ads on Craigslist. Each property generated about 10-15 inquiries and several viable buyers. So, in those, more rural areas, Craigslist still works great.