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All Forum Posts by: Jack Seiden

Jack Seiden has started 31 posts and replied 801 times.

Post: Washington D.C. Prices Are In The DOGE House - Are Prices Dropping ?

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Ken M.:

The report is that prices are dropping rather substantially in Washington D.C. related to layoffs.

Article:
In November, the median home in the nation's capital was worth $699,000, according to Redfin.

By February, the median home value dropped 20 percent, bringing the price down to $560,000.

TKL found there are now nearly 8,000 homes listed for sale in the Washington, DC metro area, and almost half of them have been put on the market in the last 30 days.

The tax-collecting Internal Revenue Service is preparing to fire thousands of workers next week"

***************************************************************************

Comment: 

Save The IRS  - said no one, ever

This is just  completely made up you can see inventory here, it grew during the summer, and is actually falling now. Even if you were to see this type of drop which I highly, I highly doubt, do you really you would see it less a month into trumps administration before any of the layoffs have even started? 

Post: DC realtors, give me the real info on the housing market right now

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Bruce Lynn:

I can't believe the market would have changed in 2-3 weeks.

If DOGE continues it certainly might change.  Downsizing a one factory town.

I would expect if FedGov downsizes, a lot of the corresponding periphery businesses/consulting firms, etc shut down.

There has also been talk of such things like FBI moving out of Washington, I think some of that has already been the trend, but may accelerate.  Isn't CBP moving most of HDQ to Texas?  If I remember right about 1/2 of FBI HDQ staff is in Birmingham.  They need a new HDQ and previously looking for space in DC, but some talk of moving it to someplace cheaper.  

So over the long term, I think it certainly could affect home and commercial prices.


 This idea dc is a company town isn’t really true & the company isn’t going out of business, 20% of the workforce is federal government, if they cut 25% of the federal workforce it would be 5% of the region and of course the vast majority are of these people would get jobs in the private sector, not to mention the government will probably have to rely more heavily on government contractors to fill gaps where the cut.

Post: DC realtors, give me the real info on the housing market right now

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Peter Tverdov:

There are many popular social media posts right now portraying that DC homes are going up for sale all over the place because of DOGE cuts. While it seems possible thats true, people doing this are screen shotting stuff from Zillow. Someone out there must study those submarkets pretty heavily and can explain how housing stock has changed or not changed month over month the last few months...

 This chart I thinks shows it best, inventory does increase over last summer/fall though still well below historic norms, but it actually starts coming down over the winter. 

Post: DC realtors, give me the real info on the housing market right now

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Peter Tverdov:

There are many popular social media posts right now portraying that DC homes are going up for sale all over the place because of DOGE cuts. While it seems possible thats true, people doing this are screen shotting stuff from Zillow. Someone out there must study those submarkets pretty heavily and can explain how housing stock has changed or not changed month over month the last few months...


 City proper has been on 5 year bear market completely unrelated to anything political, the suburbs have been adding inventory since the summer but are still very low but any measure and have actually gotten tighter the last few month, while I am open to the idea these cuts could eventually have some effect on the market, about 20% of the dc area is federal employees, let’s say the federal government cut the work force 25% which would be huge, that’s 5% of the population, but a good number of those people are either two income households where one person works in the private and/or the person being laid can go get a similar job in the provide sector l, the percentage of households who would be forced to sell thier house over this is likely in very low single digits. I’m certainly not. Always a cheerleader for our local market & think we face many headwind, but this is is massively overblown in my opinion and certainly there is absolutely no data that we have seen an effect from this as of yet, again if anything our suburbs inventory has gotten tighter.

Post: First time home buyer in Northern Virginia

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Mark Taggart-Perez:

@Jack Seiden I appreciate your insights! I wasn't aware of the law requiring a contract with an agent. I'll have to look into that more! I plan to stay in this general area for at least the next 20 years and think buying real estate would be a great way to diversify my investment portfolio.

So in almost any scenario you will come ahead buying vs renting over twenty years probably well less than half of that, but the investment you are making is a long term investment you probably won’t be able to leave after a year or two and rent for more than your mortgage, I’d really think about where you want to live medium-long term, than any investment metric, because the longer you stay the better the investment looks, and if you can move out sooner great, but I’d guess at minimum you’d have to stay 5 years before rents would catch up to your mortgage.

Post: First time home buyer in Northern Virginia

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Mark Taggart-Perez:

Hello BP community!

My name is Mark. I am 31 years old. I'm a firefighter in Northern Virginia. I am single with no kids. My base income is ~$95k per year. With overtime, I grossed $139.5k in 2024. I am currently renting an apartment with a roommate. My half of the monthly rent is around $1300 with utilities. I have ZERO debts. I have a retirement 457 account with $120k (split amongst Roth and Traditional). I also have $102k in a money market account that currently earns about 4.5%. I've got about 7k in an emergency savings account.

I am in the process of getting several mortgage pre-approvals to compare fees and get an idea of how much home I can realistically afford.

I have yet to find a buyer's agent/investor to help me identify potential homes but will start on that shortly.

Ideally, I would like to buy a single family home. The areas I'm looking are Loudoun County, VA, Charlestown/Harpers Ferry, WV, and Frederick, MD.

My ultimate goal is to live in it until I can buy a second property and then backfill my first property with a tenant. Rinse and repeat.

It's my first time going through the entire home buying process and it's all a bit overwhelming and daunting. I have a few questions.

1. How do I go about finding the best banks or companies to get pre-approvals and is it worthwhile to get multiple?

2.(a) Is it okay to be looking at 3 different areas VA, MD, WV? Or should I really narrow it down to one?

2.(b) Is it okay to talk to multiple realtors at the same time (I'm thinking it would be better to have a separate realtor with lots of market knowledge and experience in each of the mentioned locations) or should I only plan to use one?

3.(c) Do any of you have some specific market considerations I should take into account OR that I should be researching (high taxes, pertinent rent laws, etc.)?

3. My money market funds are dedicated to go towards a down payment, closing costs, etc. How do I determine how much of a down payment I should make (keeping my goal of buying more properties in mind)?

4. Lastly, what other considerations or resources can you think of that will help me understand the process and feel more comfortable as a first time home buyer?

Thank you all so much for taking the time to read my post!


 1. Ask around but tbh most rates are going to be broadly similar 

2. You can talk to as many agents as you want & in fact you should, however with the new law you do need to sign an contract before the agents can show you a property, that’s the law now unfortunately.

3. This is basically a math problem that will depend on both you personal finances & also how much of this is an investment vs you want a nice house to live in

4. I’ll be honest it’s not clear to me real estate is necessarily a better investment than say the stock market, certainly not a bad investment but not as hyped as some people make it, you need to decide how much owning your own home is worth to you & also how long you plan to be in the area, if you will be here for the foreseeable future, bite the bullet and buy, if your not sure where you will be in a few years, renting might make more sense.

Post: Renting vs selling Cumberland, MD

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Ngozi Iwunze:

Hello BP community, 

I'm closing on a property in Downtown Cumberland Maryland. Light renovation needed, 3 bed 1.5 bath. I came across some reddit post on the city and how tenant friendly it is, plus population decline. Apart of me wants to sell. My total cost is 40k, can resell at around $130. What would you do in my shoes 

I don’t invest there so take this with a slight grain of salt but I’ve heard multiple stories of basically this exact scenario someone getting offered a big payday for something in Cumberland, rejecting it & always for some reason (house burned down, block got worse, sheetz decided they actually didn’t want someone’s land for a car wash after all) always selling for like 10-20k and regretting not selling.

Post: New investor looking to learn about DC's market, make connections

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Daniel Green:

Hey everyone,  

I'm Dan, 35 here, I'll be able to make my first purchase in summer '26. I work in Potomac, MD, and would like to buy a condo or apt that I can easily commute and live in, and then eventually rent out, and then buy another. 

I'd be happy to make connections over similar goals, and to learn about tax info for DC, great spots to buy, and trends for rentals. I figured DC would be a great area to invest in because it attracts tons of young professionals. Maybe you can prove me wrong? 

Let's talk,

Dan

Ive actually been looking into buying a condo myself as an investment, I have a few rules, needs to be with both good hoa management & relatively cheap fee (bellow $600 a month) needs to be in area where I’m not competing against other new construction apartments, needs to be an area where even townhomes are so expensive you are not competing, I.e. upper nw, nova, Bethesda etc. needs to be 1990’s or newer in most cases.

Post: Why BRRRR is not an effective strategy today...

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
Quote from @Russell Brazil:
Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
Quote from @Kristi K.:
Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

 https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...


cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property. 

Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.


A typical BRRRR in DC creates $200k in equity. Seems pretty good to me.


thats awesome! sounds like your a good example of what i mentioned saying that BRRR isnt dead. If you are doing BRRR in markets like DC its further demonstration that these narratives are not accurate.

Thats not my model and homes at that price point havent penciled out for me but im very much doing BRRR in my market with properties that do pencil. we add ~50k-60k of equity per BRRR on properties around 200-230k ARV

You can definitely create equity in D.C. though the 200k listed above is highly unlikely, the biggest issue is at those price points you are deep in the red cash flow wise after refinancing.

Post: Has anyone house-hacked in DC area?

Jack Seiden
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Washington DC
  • Posts 838
  • Votes 646
Quote from @Robert Smith:
Quote from @Jack Seiden:
Quote from @Robert Smith:

I am interested in possibly doing so. Possibly in capital hill area. 


 The biggest question you need to ask yourself is if you are doing this to afford a property you otherwise couldn’t afford or to save money period, that will lead to very different conclusions about where/if to buy. 


Can you explain further? 

If you want to buy in capital hill and this is a way to afford something you otherwise can’t go for it, thing getting a nice car and ubering part time to pay for it. But as far monthly payment you could easily buy a house in a cheaper location have less roommates and the same monthly payment or the same number of roommates and a lower monthly payment. Finally from a purely from a cash outlay prospective short term, you could rent a house with roommates and your payment would still probably be Lower than house hacking because rates are so high, over the long period 5-10 years obviously it would cheaper ti buy, hope that makes sense