All Forum Posts by: Jared Trindade

Is Greenville NC a market no one is looking at?

Greenville NC is home to a population of about 88,000 people. Growing annually at about 0.34% nothing exciting there. In the past two years Greenville has seen some massive investment projects from Thermo Fischer Scientific, and Grover Gaming, investing a combined total of $665,000,000 creating 790 jobs in the last 2 years in the Greenville area. Those are good indicators of Greenville being a potential science/tech hub in NC. 

Greenville is about 51% renters in the market, with roughly 31% of the housing in the market being MFHs. This signals a potential opportunity for MFH investors in NC. The poverty rate in Greenville is between 22-31%, which is quite high, meaning affordable housing is something that is needed in the area. There is also a large student base in Greenville due to ECU and other 2 year universities in the area. 

Median Home Price is right under $300k, with most listings in the $275k area. Average homes are moving in about 12 days at ask, and hot homes are seeing a 4 day on market time, and getting around 3% over ask on average. The inventory is roughly a 3.3 month supply, which is up over last year. Still quite tight, so multiple offers are still be received. Sales are down about 25%, so there's inventory and not as much movement. 

I think a lot of investors have walked away from Greenville. But why?

The Cost of Living (CoL) puts Greenville in the top 23% of most expensive cities to live, which comparatively in NC makes it 41/50 most expensive, meaning in NC, it's rather cheap. So the CoL is low, large companies are expanding locally, there is a steady stream of students, but a large impoverished population. The crime index is an 11 (out of 100, 100 being the safest) which is not a great look, but violent crimes aren't the cause, mostly property theft and damages. Which is a trend you typically see with more impoverished areas. 

None of these are screaming "run". 

I think Greenville has fallen off the map for a lot of people, it appears to me there is still a great opportunity in this area. Prices are cheap, there are tons of renters, lots of students, and jobs going to Greenville. Greenville NC, has a stigma due to ECU being considered the "Party" College of NC outside of App State, so this may deter some of the people who like renting to students, because they tend to be a bit more unruly than other schools in NC. This is something that can be overcome with good property management, and shouldn't be a make or break. 

Greenville NC is East from Raleigh, on the way to the beach, and sports some of the more active night life of NC. There is a great opportunity for potential rental strategies. As always with STRs make sure to check local ordinances, AirDNA and I'd recommend trying to get an STR that can cash flow as effectively as an LTR, bit more of a challenge, but price points in the area can really make a difference. It's not a super active market at this time, and I think that could change with a group of savvy investors heading to Greenville.

The way I see it, it's currently pretty untapped, no one's really got it on their radar, and you can't even find other Market Data Posts on Greenville NC on BP, meaning this community isn't thinking about it as much either. Not to mention the bulk of other related forum posts to Greenville are months old in most cases.

Do your due diligence, but if you think there is an opportunity here, please give me some feedback, and I'd love to connect. As always looking for an additional feedback, and information that can be valuable to this post. It's impossible to know everything, so if someone has differing, or similar information to add please do!

Here's the links for extra reading and sources.

https://businessfacilities.com...

https://www.areadevelopment.co...

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://www.redfin.com/city/71...

http://www.homeinfogreenville....

https://worldpopulationreview....

https://www.census.gov/quickfa...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

https://www.neighborhoodscout....

https://censusreporter.org/pro...

https://www.franklin.edu/colle...

Quote from @Franklin Love:

I live in California, I'm also looking in North Carolina around the Raleigh area

 Same thing as to Kang Ji above ^ check those out, and connect if you find it helpful. Looking for feedback!

Quote from @Kang Ji:

How is the housing market in North Carolina now? Does that 6.7% really hurt the market a lot? Some agents are saying still a lot of people are buying houses in rush in good school districts in NC. Just wondering if that's true? Also, any recommendations for good zip codes to look into? Thanks guys.

 If you haven't been satisfied with information you have gotten in the past 3 months, I would encourage you to check out my posts on NC Market Data & Trends. I have broken down quite a list of NC areas, and should provide some information that you are looking for. Let's connect, if you are still looking!

Quote from @Christian Chamboneth:

Hi my name is Christian I'm a  new investor looking to invest in the North Carolina area. I lived in Indianapolis I would like to move some day to North Carolina any recommendations of the best cities to invest or zip codes. I would like to understand more the North Carolina market and their trends. Looking forward to connect and I'm offering my help as well to anybody that need it.

Hey Christian, thanks for posting! I would encourage you to check out some of my posts on Market Data in NC, I have some of the most popular areas in NC broken down in easy to digest data. Including Asheville, Durham, Fayetteville, Wilmington, Raleigh, and more. I am consistently doing this type of research in NC, and continue to make new posts every couple of days. 

I would love to connect with you, and see if I could be a resource for you. 

https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

Here's a post I did for a more general look at NC, instead of individual market breakdowns. Love to get some feedback from you!

My best,

Jared Trindade

Quote from @Account Closed:

This was helpful information (the original + all the other posts). Raleigh is a great market, but (at least from my research so far) definitely not a place for LTRs at least at my price point. I'm still looking around in state first, and there's plenty of locations to look at, but cash flow wise, I've struggled to get the numbers to work in Raleigh, seems to be only appreciation plays here. Not that there's anything wrong with that, it's just that I'd prefer the cash flow at this time mostly. 

^ Open to push back if others disagree with my point here though regarding long term rentals. 

I agree there are better markets in NC for LTRs than Raleigh, it's not that it cannot be done in Raleigh, or done effectively, but I do think for price points in other places with better cashflow is ideal. 

Quote from @Ryan Spearman:

Hi, 

I am a property investor in New Zealand with a portfolio of mainly small multi-families.

I will be selling off some of my individual units in about a year's time which should give me approx US$640k. 

As I have learned essentially all my property investing knowledge from the BiggerPockets podcast I can't help but come back to the idea of multi-family investing in the US. We don't have anything like that asset class here in NZ, 12 units are about as large as you can get. Even that is uncommon.

I've spoken to lenders in the states and I can only borrow 60% as a foreign investor. This gives me about $1.6 million to play with.

I have no ties to any particular state and a year to do my research. I imagine I can narrow it down to an amazing deal within that time.

Where should I buy? How big?

I'm looking for a classic value add, well cash-flowing property, that I can eventually refinance out a decent chunk of my capital while retaining a sizable cash flow.

Any and all advice would be welcome. I need to find a full team over there that I can lean on. I'm really hoping to develop long-lasting professional relationships in order to establish myself as an international property investor.

Thanks in advance

Ryan

As an agent that works exclusively with investors in the North Carolina Real Estate Market, I can tell you there is potential in NC. Places like Durham, and Asheville are some of the fastest appreciating communities in country, which is a great indicator of health. Places like Fayetteville and Jacksonville NC sport massive Military Populations, which are super easy to handle as tenants, and can consistently afford market rent.

Places like Raleigh and Charlotte are massive metropolitan areas, and some of the best emerging economies, with rapid growth in the nation. In truth NC has slowly been becoming a hot spot over the last few years in particular. A lot of out of state interest is heading this way. 

As you know, having a full team, and a one stop shop type of setup will make management easier, and keep your headaches less. I'd love to connect if you ever have any NC questions. 

Best,

Jared Trindade

Quote from @Bob Stevens:

Quote from @Paul Moore:

@Bob Stevens thank you for your replies on this thread. I'm a little confused on your answers so I wonder if you could demonstrate how you're getting a 20% or better cap rate. Can you give us an example? You also mentioned net versus gross cap rate and I wonder if you can explain that a little more. I look forward to hearing back! 

 Hello sure, I will provide my last few .  All my purchases are cash.  I only speak about net who cares about gross you can't pay the rent with gross LOL.  SF all in pricing is 60k, Rent will be 1350 (maybe a little more ) so 

Rent 16k

taxes 2100

Ins 1k

Misl 1k ( may not use it but I always put in ) 

Net 12k, so thats 20% Now I get free PM so even if you add the 1200

still net of 11k still 18% 

10 UNIT, all in about 350k, 

Rent 90kish

NET about 60k, 

17% net 

I can provide dozens and dozens of examples with much higher net caps. 

I hope this helps

BTW I used to get 30-35%++ net caps but pricing has doubled, tripled or more in my market 

all the best 

Thank you for sharing that, I found that breakdown awesome to see. 

Cheers

Quote from @Wes M.:

Great information and resource! I do think it is important to understand the regional population growth as the City of Wilmington proper is largely influenced by development occurring in neighboring Brunswick and Pender Counties. Wilmington itself is largely built out and is now reliant on redevelopment and infill for population growth. Population growth in the region is almost all in-migration, meaning people are moving here from some place else due to the desirability of the area. 

We are set to close on a property in downtown Wilmington later this week. This particular property was on the MLS and had 13 offers, some as much as $50k over asking. In the regional market, it is vital to have a true understanding of the local geography. Not only are there crime related issues in some areas, there are also areas subject to flood inundation and the high cost to insure a property through the National Flood Insurance Program. Make sure you have a knowledgeable agent before purchasing anything.

 Excellent add, thank you for contributing that to the post. Super strong and very valid points made there!

Interesting Market Indeed.

Wilmington NC is one of the most important Port Cities on the East Coast of the US. With a long well incorporated history, that is still able to be visited today. It boasts a unique set of historical buildings, beautiful beaches, and many wonderful restaurants. It's a highlight vacation spot for many North and South Carolinians, and brings in many out of state tourists as well. It has UNCW, which is a fantastic university in the state, with an absolutely stunning (and large) campus. 

Wilmington has been and will continue to be a wonderful area for Real Estate Investors. The Median Sales Price right now is right around the $425k mark, which after being much lower in September (Just North of $350k), is a good sign to see. However Wilmington is sporting a unique market right now, where a pricing seems to be a determining factor is DOM. People listing properties, thinking that they can still get what they may have in March, are sitting for months, where as competitively priced inventory is flying left and right. The buyers are here, and a lot of people in Wilmington invest locally, which is a great sign. Wilmington is still a hot market, with competition going on good inventory. Bid wars and waiving contingencies are still happening. On average we are seeing most homes go for 1% under list in 12 days, and hot inventory going for about 1% in 3 days. 

Data I like to see is population. For 3 decades in a row Wilmington grew right around 10,000 people. In the 2020 concensus that number was around 6,000 for the decade. It has seen a 1.4% population increase since April of 2020, indicating people are coming back, I might call it a Yellow flag, but nothing to be overly concerned with. 75% of home buyers in Wilimington that living locally, are seeking a home in still in Wilmington which is great data. People in Wilmy are pretty content with Cost of Living, local infrastructure, and wages. Wilmington see a lot of improvements annually, and there is always money coming in, not too much to complain about in one of the most beautiful cities in NC. 

Wilmy is in the top 7% most expensive cities in the US to live in, Cost of Living (CoL) wise. 

46% of homes are owner occupied, over half the market is renting. With a large student population in Wilmy, there is a great opportunity here for rental strategies. STR, LTR, and MTRs are all viable options. Wilmy isn't Charlotte, or Raleigh, but with it's distance comparable to other cities, it has a completely inclusive economy and infrastructure built into it. Meaning there is a need for all service types, making MTRs an option. There is also a solid military, and veteran presence in Wilmington, so VA is seen here time to time.

Wilmington is currently supporting about a 19% poverty rate, which is actually much higher then I thought it would be. Affordable housing is a need in this market, just as much as luxury homes. Someone who can offer great price points and have proper cash flow, can see an almost 20% of the market in need of what they are offering. 8/50 most expensive in the state, coincidently is also the 8th largest city in the state. 

Wilmington is still growing, still has plenty of opportunities here. The inventory is becoming more competitively priced, and the amount of inventory is increasing, albeit slowly. Something important to keep in mind is a lot of investors in Wilmington invest at a street level. I.E. I will buy this street, not the next one, but the one after that, skip the next three, and that street works. Keeping this in mind whether you are an investor or an agent is important. Being very familiar with Wilmington is a key to success. Depending on if you are shooting for luxury homes or not, and where you are investing is going to have a dramatic impact on DOM, and value. 

Do your research on Wilmy, check local comps- and know your hot zones. Sometimes they change, some are very consistently sought after, so stay on your toes. Wilmington is a City that's not going under water any time soon. 

As always looking for any and all feedback, questions, comments, and value add information. It's impossible to know everything, and anyone who has data they can add I invite you to do so! Looking to connect, and meet new people for resources. Please reach out!

Here are the links for additional reading and sources. Thank you!

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://www.redfin.com/city/18...

https://www.wilmingtonbiz.com/...

https://worldpopulationreview....

https://www.census.gov/quickfa...

https://advanresearch.com/wilm...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

https://datausa.io/profile/geo...

Quote from @Pat Lulewicz:

Great summary, Jared. I think you're absolutely right about the fact that patient capital can have a field day in High Point. The economics for a good renter-heavy market are there, but it has to be delivered at an acceptable price point. Although the crime statistics don't paint the town in a great light, being in the city gives you an entirely different feel. I'd argue that you can find pockets of this activity in any town just like the pockets of High Point you're referring to. Downtown Durham and East Downtown Raleigh are "viewed" the same way as what you're referring to in High Point; I'm sure Fayetteville has its fair share. Main St has undergone massive redevelopment, the city now has a baseball stadium and team next to a Food Hall, and a great hospital in the middle of it all. 

As far as the type of investor, I would NEVER tell a newbie investor that it isn't a good market. My 2nd rental property in NC was in High Point and I regret not buying 20 more at a time when I could scoop up BRRR deals at $30k/door, before out-of-state investors heard about the market. Even these days my last purchase was a B-class home for $154k in the NW side of town and secured a $1,600/m tenant. Like any market, it's street-by-street and emphasizes the need of having professional help with your first or second, so you can get a hang for the market if you aren't local.

 I agree with you, I think I should have been more clear with how I mentioned not being a recommendation for a newbie- one that is not using proper support systems. Everyone should feel invited to invest, it's just not the place I would say to someone who has never invested in a bar convo that they should really look into- if you get my drift. Thank you for bringing that up, and great point. 

All cities have those bad areas, no doubt, just important to note that High Point has a little more bad in the bad, which means those rough neighborhoods that people may feel comfortable working with in Raleigh or Durham, or Fayetteville may be a bit rougher in High Point, a solid fair warning, but also not meant to be a dissuasion. 

Thank you for your input, much appreciated!