All Forum Posts by: Jasraj Singh

Actually, what I was interested in knowing is how much would you like to MAKE from your project? We work backwards using that number to determine how much you need to have and how much of a house you need to buy.

Hi @Jasraj Singh.  You asked how to tell if a recession is coming.  That would take a lot of discussion, but I would highly recommend you Google Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital and see what he writes about cycles and recessions.  If you have time, I would read his book "Mastering the Market Cycle." I'm in my 2nd read-through and it is amazing. When buyers get euphoric and ignore risk, at the time when assets are most risky, you know it is time to get out. 

Okay, now we're getting somewhere. Flipping is best done within a 30 minute drive of your home. It requires time and attention if you want it to be profitable. You have to have contractors if you aren't handy with a hammer, you need to buy well below what you will sell it for, you have to be able to accurately estimate what it will eventually sell for, you have to consider acquisition costs, rehab costs, carrying costs, selling costs, prepare for 6 months on average from start to finish, you need to know about title reports, appraisals, escrow, lenders, insurance, sequence of rehab lists, "oops" surprises, market changes, level of finish, what other rehabbers are using for materials, and realize that contractors don't always show up or finish what they start. Then you begin your search for the perfect duplex to rehab and sell. If you are going to have tenants you need to know landlord tenant law for the area you are investing in. All of that is learnable. Now, do you have an amount in mind that youould like to make on this project? I might be able to fill in the gaps so you can start looking for the ideal project.

@Jasraj Singh

I have been speaking on Real Estate Investing all over North America for years. During my 3-day workshop, I do an entire roughly 2-hour component on market analysis. 

There are five things I look at when evaluating a market that I am interested in investing in: Unemployment Rate, Average Household Income, Population Migration, Average Days on Market, and Average Sales Price. Those are the five indices that I examine anywhere I’m considering investing. 

Now, depending on what types of deals I’m considering, I may also examine vacancy rates and average rental amounts specific to the type of units I might be acquiring.

I have to respectfully disagree with a prior comment that Zillow is a healthy tool to use when performing market analysis based on the inconsistencies with regards to the accuracy of the data on Zillow. 

Try watching this webinar and ignore the "turnkey" sales pitch unless your are into turnkey investing: https://www.anymeeting.com/Web...

BiggerPockets has a lot of information. Did you try to search bar? Have you watched Brandon's videos on Youtube, particularly the "4-square" method?

CLICK HERE for the Ultimate Guide To Analyzing Property

Read, practice, and use the BiggerPockets calculator.

@Jasraj Singh a really good and simple starting point without getting a good agent involved is using https://www.zillow.com/home-va... and do some simple market analysis on a zip code and census track basis. This will give you a starting point of the absorption rate in the areas (days on market) and where property values are generally going in each area. This website also tracks the foreclosures and rent payment and would be a good way to indicate how an area is performing. This isn't a very technical approach but it's a way to start without going to an agent that has access to supply and demand data that is owned by the mls.

After you have done your initial study of these census tracks with this data, I would start to build relationships with some really good Realtors that are willing to work with you and share the mls data of inventory (listed homes) over time vs demand (sold/pending homes) over the same time frame for those particular areas. You can use this raw data and compare to the finding on the site above and come to some conclusion about where the market is moving. In the end it's a supply/demand formula and as there are more sold homes and/or active buyers for homes being listed, prices will go up and days on market will shift lower and lower. It is vis versa for the counter.

Beyond that, you can get into more technical analysis on employment and population that would be more relevant for commercial and larger investment properties but would be still applicable determine the changing demographics  and economic employment base in each area. It encompasses more advanced statistical analysis that is way to complicated to describe in the forum if you don't want to fall asleep but it basically calculates how a new job/employer created would create "x number" of new jobs and thus would create "x number" of new population which would create "x number" of new active buyers (demand). It takes a long time to build these models and probably wouldn't be worth the time it takes to create unless you were doing larger investments and developments.

I hope this helps and wish you the best of luck.

James Storey, CCIM

Keller Williams

Indianapolis, IN

i think Realtors track what you're asking.  but, I'm sure they try to put #s in most positive light. 

Although I'd be interested to learn more also. 

Maybe If Walmart puts in a store, they expect that area to grow & Walmart did all research for you.

My cities population is decreasing.  & the main employer seems to be slowly leaving.  but I still am looking at Real Estate here.  maybe doesn't make too much sense.