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All Forum Posts by: Jeff Burdick

Jeff Burdick has started 5 posts and replied 501 times.

Originally posted by @Mike H.:

@Jeff Burdick

I'm convinced you either aren't reading these articles so I figured I'd pull out the snippets to show what the reality of the area's situation really is - in terms of crime, population loss, financial crisis.

btw: We haven't even mentioned overall employment rates for the area. Illinois, as a state, has the 46th worst unemployment rate in the nation (tied with West Virginia). So again, I would ask you, how in the world could you possibly recommend this area to an out of state investor.

Here are what I believe most people view as some of the key target characteristics of a good area to invest in:
1) Population growth. Chicago area is literally the worst of any city/region in the country.

2) Job market. 46th highest unemployment rate. Again. Thats NOT GOOD.

3) Landlord friendly area. Chicago/cook county one of the worst I've heard on here. An eviction takes 4 to 12 mos. I know because I've done a couple. And its been 4 to 6 mos each time. You can get a court to reschedule by saying you need to sneeze.

4) Crime. You can quote per capita stuff all you want. I'm sure there are always areas that will show a higher number. But large sections of chicago are a war area right now. And its one of the worst cities for crime (chicago is worse than new york or LA).

5) Other risk. In this case, you have a state that hasn't had a budget in several years now because they simply can't pass a balanced one given the billions of dollars of unfunded pensions. The mayor just passed the highest property tax increase in the city ever and they're still not done finding enough money to fund all their pensions.

The unknowns with this political environment are a huge risk.

What I just can't comprehend is how you can look at those items and the facts and suggest that you would recommend the chicago area above places like Texas and the like...... Something isn't adding up with your logic. Or else you don't really understand what most investors are actually looking for in terms of characteristics of a good investing area. But I can promise you, that chicago doesn't have them right now.   Even in the nicer areas in chicago, you still have extremely poor landlord laws and you're still at huge risk of significant tax increases at both the city, county and state levels.  Not to mention the much higher unemployment rate and the outflow of population that is occurring - whether you believe in the media's numbers or not. 

But the title of the article will hopefully eventually sink in for you:
Chicago area sees greatest population loss of any major U.S. city, region in 2015

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/...

Chicago area sees greatest population loss of any major U.S. city, region in 2015

Here are some highlights of the article which basically suggest you're either really

out of touch or just in complete denial:

-By almost every metric, Illinois' population is sharply declining, largely because residents are fleeing the state. The Tribune surveyed dozens of former residents who've left within the last five years, and each offered their own list of reasons for doing so. Common reasons include high taxes, the state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate and the weather. Census data released Thursday suggest the root of the problem is in the Chicago metropolitan area, which in 2015 saw its first population decline since at least 1990.

-The Chicago area lost an estimated 6,263 residents in 2015 — the greatest loss of any metropolitan area in the country.

-"We talk opportunity all the time. If you're moving to California, you might be a tech worker, or you might be someone who likes sunshine," he said. "But when you see Illinois losing people to every Midwestern state, you know it's not weather. People are moving for economic reasons."

-Through the 1990s and 2000s, Illinois saw what demographers consider normal rates of exodus for the state, about 50,000 to 70,000 more residents moving away from the state than moving in. But in 2015, the number spiked to about 95,000, and in 2015 it reached more than 100,000 people, according to census data.

-Chicago residents leaving the state have cited the Chicago Public Schools' financial crisis and the city's red light camera controversy as motivating factors. The greatest concern, however, seems to be safety. Despite being the nation's third most populous city, Chicago outpaces New York City and Los Angeles in the number of homicides and shootings, though it fares better than some smaller cities on a per capita comparison.

- Indeed, the employment rate is an issue: Illinois this year is tied with West Virginia for the 46th worst employment rate of all states, at 6.3 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"People are leaving Illinois because we rank near the bottom in job growth in the Midwest and have among the highest property taxes in America,"

-It's important that communities engage in careful discussion about cutbacks, and begin planning for smaller populations and smaller economic growth, said Eric Zeemering, a professor at Northern Illinois University's School of Public and Global Affairs. 

 I'm not going to bother responding to all of this.  But I'll respond to a few things.  I never said Chicago is the perfect place to invest.  I never said Chicago is a better place to invest than Texas.  

1) The city of Chicago's population is growing slowly.  But whats more significant is the demographic changes of the population.   Many poor and working class people are leaving the city.  At a slightly higher rate, young professionals are flooding into the city.  This is causing neighborhoods to gentrify.  Properties that sold for 400K in Logan Square in 2008 are selling for 800K today.  That's not something an out of state investor would be interested in?  A 100% increase in value over less than 10 years?  Here's just one example. http://chicago.curbed.com/2015/10/30/9905406/is-th...


3) I'm not denying that Chicago is not landlord friendly, but the tremendous demand for tenants makes evictions less likely.  Tenants are aware that no landlords will rent to them if they have an eviction on their record.  I had stop paying rent, I merely mentioned that I was "going to begin the eviction process."  She was out the following weekend.  

4) Again, overall crime is declining, despite the recent increase in murder rates.  Also, the vast majority of that crime is gang related and concentrated in a few specific neighborhoods that basically everyone else knows to avoid.  

5) Rising property taxes are a minor concern, but so far the rising property tax rates is not even equal to the annual rise in rents.  If my properties' taxes go up $300 and rents go up $500, I'm still net positive.  

Originally posted by @Mike H.:

@Jeff Burdick

Its absurd? Not when I have the chicago tribune article to suggest you're not really understanding the point. Its not a question of whether chicago's crime or population is doing whatever you think its doing.

The fact is that chicago's murder rate is skyrocketing. The fact that you are so unaware of how bad the shooting/murder problem is right now is scary. And the fact that you think there's such tremendous growth going on in the city is completely out of touch with reality.

Did you read this tribune article on population loss? Its not a question of whether there are some basic upticks depending on when the numbers were taken. The reality is that there is a real problem with crime that is scaring people away. There is a real problem with the state's financial situation. Are you even aware that the state has LITERALLY not had a budget for several years now? And that the pensions in the city of chicago, cook county and state of illinois are all so woefully underfunded that there are going to be some significant tax increases coming to fix it? Its not going to fix itself.

As I've said, I've got rentals in southern cook county. They make money. So do the ones down by me where I have a majority of my rentals. But the fact is if I was ever going to give someone advice about where to invest, the last place on the planet I would tell them to invest would be chicago. 

Do you even have a clue how long it takes to evict someone in cook county? Anywhere from 5 to 12 mos. Thats called risk. 

The mayor just passed the largest property tax increase EVER. And it sounds like another one is coming. 

I'm just not sure why anyone from out of state would ever, in their right mind, choose an area like chicago to invest in. Its one thing if you live here. Then that always makes sense. But to pick any state and any area in that state you want, one of the absolute worst places I could think of to recommend would be chicago/cook county. 

Why in the world would anyone want to take on this kind of risk? What is it that you're trying to sell people here exactly? Because I no longer believe it has anything to do with city pride now. Are you a realtor? Flipper? Turnkey operator? 


I'll just keep posting some of these articles until maybe you are able to read them:
What is it about these article that you're disputing? Or do you follow the trump rules and just think the media is evil and making this stuff up? :-)

Population loss:

Chicago area sees greatest population loss of any major U.S. city, region in 2015

Crime

CHICAGO — Murders in the nation's third-largest city are up about 72%, while shootings have surged more than 88% in the first three months of 2016 compared with the same period last year, according to data released Friday by the ChicagoPolice Department.Apr 1, 2016

And in terms of population loss, holy cow, you are simply lost. But you must not be reading the tribune regularly where they actually give you real up to date FACTS. There is a huge population drain occurring in chicago.

 The Tribune article you linked is referring to the entire metro area.  It specifically says "Chicago area" in the headline.  I'm talking about the city of Chicago. The population of the city of Chicago is growing. If you bothered to click the article I've linked three or four times, you'd see that. I'll do it one more time with the hope that maybe you'll click it this time.  http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20161213/BL...

I am not unaware of anything.  Please don't confuse your denial of facts with me being unaware.  I am completely aware of what is going on in the city, including the recent uptick in murders.  That does not change the fact that, as a whole, crime in the city of Chicago is trending downward and has been over the last 15 years.  

The fact that you're denying that there is growth going on in the city right now is so completely out of touch with reality.  There are 44 highrises under construction right now. http://chicago.curbed.com/maps/chicago-tower-highr...
Chicago's tech industry has created 40,000 jobs over the last 5 years.  
http://www.inc.com/zoe-henry/3-reasons-why-chicago...
Kraft Heinz, McDonald's, Motorola, Hillshire, ConAgra all moved or are moving their headquarters to Chicago.  

Yet, you're denying the city's economic growth.   Please tell me how that is not growth.  I'd love to hear it.  


Yes, I am completely aware of the state's budget issues.  Yes, I am completely aware of the  issues with the pension systems.   

I'm not trying to sell anyone anything.  I couldn't careless if you, or anyone else thinks Chicago is a great place to invest or the worst place to invest.  I care when people say things about Chicago that are factually inaccurate, which you are consistently and repeatedly doing.  

Originally posted by @Mike H.:

Aren't you afraid of the risk that some of those nearby sketchy areas might start creeping into those neighborhoods as the crazy crime just continues to get worse? And even if that is not a concern, at the very least, aren't you afraid of the possibility of getting a huge tax increase - either from the city or the state - OR BOTH?

Again, I don't have a clue what the other guy is talking about. The fact that he thinks Chicago gained in population is absurd. The tribune article clearly shows that chicago had one of the worst outflow of people of any large city in the US. 

His subdivision may be great. And his taxes may be great. But he also mentioned that his property's assessed value is pretty high up there and I don't see how in the world that works for buy and hold investing.......  Those 500k homes are tough to cash flow.

btw: Here is the recent kiplinger report on the 10 worst states in the country for taxes. They mention the huge shortfall the state is facing. Didn't even include the shortfall that the city/county are still trying to deal with.

--------------------------------------------------

State income tax: 3.75%

Average state and local sales tax: 8.64%

Gas taxes and fees: 34 cents per gallon

The Prairie State’s income tax dropped to a flat rate of 3.75% from 5% on Jan. 1, 2015.

The bad news is that taxes on just about everything else in Illinois are high and could go higher as lawmakers grapple with the largest state budget deficit in the U.S. And the low flat tax may not last: With total liabilities exceeding assets by 48%, the state needs to raise taxes by 17%, cut services by 16% or increase worker pension contributions by 400%, according to a report by J.P. Morgan.

Property taxes in Illinois are the second-highest in the nation. The property tax on the state’s median home value of $171,900 is $3,952.

And the combined average state and local sales tax is 8.64%, the 7th-highest rate in the U.S, according to the Tax Foundation. In some municipalities, combined state and local sales taxes are as high as 10%. Qualifying food and prescription and nonprescription drugs are taxed at 1%.



The fact that you're still denying that Chicago's population is growing is absurd. 


"Total city population, per the ACS, has risen about 14,000 to 2,717,534."

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20161213/BL...

It is right there in black and white for you.

Crime is not getting worse. It is getting better.

http://crime.chicagotribune.com/

Right there in an obviously trending downward graph of overall crime in the city of Chicago over the last 15 years.

My property is cash flow positive because the rents are high and the mortgage interest rate is low.  
 

Post: Range cost to build a 2-car framed garage in Chicago

Jeff BurdickPosted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 515
  • Votes 247

Unfortunately, I'm going to have to be taking down a fairy new 2 car garage in the coming days.   I'm wondering if its possible to move/sell it.  Has anyone ever done that?  

Post: Property Management in Chicago

Jeff BurdickPosted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 515
  • Votes 247

I have one I love.  PM me I'll share their info.  

Post: New Investor in the Chicagoland area

Jeff BurdickPosted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 515
  • Votes 247

Welcome Dantrell!  I am a fellow investor in the city of Chicago.  

Post: Newbie from Chicago and looking for likeminded people to network!

Jeff BurdickPosted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 515
  • Votes 247
Originally posted by @Hip Rodriguez:

@Jeff Burdick Are you investing in homes, 2-4 units or condos in Irving Park?

 I have a 2 flat with a garden unit in Irving Park.   

Post: Newbie from Chicago and looking for likeminded people to network!

Jeff BurdickPosted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 515
  • Votes 247
Originally posted by @Tushar Shah:

@Jeff Burdick Thanks Jeff. What returns are you currently getting in

Irving Park and Edgewater? What strategy do you generally follow. If you even in downtown - do give me a shout we can grab a coffee and discuss REI.

 I generally try to add value to the properties.  I particularly look for properties with unfinished space(generally basements and/or attics) that has good ceiling height.  I also look for property that are solid structurally, have good mechanics, but need cosmetic upgrades.  

Post: Newbie from Chicago and looking for likeminded people to network!

Jeff BurdickPosted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 515
  • Votes 247

Welcome Tushar!  I lived in both River North and South Loop for a while.  But now I live out in Irving Park and am investing in Irving Park and Edgewater.  Let me know if you'd like to discuss real estate, Chicago neighborhoods, or anything about investing in general.  

Go Cubs Go!  

Originally posted by @Robert Leach:

Have you spoken to the city yet? If so, what did the inspector say? I am impressed you are getting 7 furnaces, duct work, line sets and building soffits for $8500.00. I mean wow! Typically its a $40-$60k conversion cost for a typical 6 flat with a basement unit under permit in the Chicago building I have seen done. If you have a guy that cheap, do share :)

 I might be wrong, but I interpreted his post as to say it was $8500 per unit.  So roughly 55K for all of them.