Quote from @Brandon Seidel:
Hey BP community,
Looking for some feedback on a decision I’ve been going back and forth on — hoping some of you with experience in high-appreciation markets or equity redeployment strategies can weigh in.
Here’s the situation:
• I own a rental property in Carlsbad, CA (ZIP 92010).
• Purchased for $820K, now worth ~$1.5M.
• I owe ~$630K on a 3% fixed mortgage.
• It cash flows about $20K annually after all expenses.
• I now live in Texas and am considering either upgrading my primary residence here or reallocating the equity into something more scalable.
My current thought process:
Pros of Keeping:
• Locked-in 3% rate is hard to beat.
• Strong appreciation and demand in Carlsbad.
• Consistent, low-maintenance cash flow.
Cons of Keeping:
• Significant equity trapped in a single asset.
• $20K/year on $870K of equity is a pretty low return (~2.3%).
Options I’m considering:
1. Sell and use part of the equity for a larger home in Houston (where I’m raising a growing family), and invest the rest into the stock market or other real estate deals.
2. Do a cash-out refinance, though the rate jump makes me hesitant.
3. Just hold long-term and let it ride — enjoy the appreciation and tax benefits.
Would love to hear from anyone who has faced similar decisions, especially those who’ve moved out of state from a high-growth area. What would you do in my position?
Appreciate any insights!
Brandon
Hey Brandon, I understand this situation well. I also live in Carlsbad and my family has been debating the exact same decision. They bought a house in Encinitas in 1997 for $275k and it is now worth nearly $2m. It is in a very family oriented neighborhood with an HOA. The house has been rented out for years since we moved to Carlsbad and we get about $6k/m as of today. Running the number in comparison to other investment opportunity, the cap is S****. I see better opportunity left and right everywhere, which always brings back up the debate. But the pros of keeping it is net cash flow, steady appreciation, and always have a house in an excellent location while always having cheap property tax, for our future family. Doing a 1031 exchange from an investor point of view, makes a lot more sense even with having to pay a higher property tax. But for us, our family will always be in San Diego, so it is easier to just keep it and not worry about it. We have contemplating just pulling equity out and using that for other investments.
So to answer your question, it really comes down to your future plans and preference. North county San Diego, is really more of a residential area for families and those actually wanting to live in San Diego. Real estate is way more expensive in this area compared to southern San Diego.
Your house will sure appreciate but if your wanting a higher cash flow now, investing elsewhere would be better. Also If you don't plan on living in San Diego again and have no family here, may be another reason to sell it to a family. And buy a better cash flowing investment where you live or in another market that is growing and has cheaper real estate.
I specialize in 1031 and investment comparisons, if you have any further questions or need analysis done. Feel free to connect!