All Forum Posts by: Kenny Simpson

 It will effect a lot more than real estate, the average payment that is NOT being paid is pretty high and that extra income that are taking in is helping them a lot.  Why the government keeps pushing out the payments,  

Here are my predictions, would love to see what your predictions are?

Rates - Mid 4 to low 5% by year end on conventional

Real Estate Market – Overall market down, some markets worse than other, some submarkets will do OK and other markets ending the year lower. 5 to 10% correction on the average.

Best Investment opportunities – First time home buyers get lower prices, closing cost paid for and repairs fixed or credit. Buyers assuming FHA/VA loans at low rates seeing this already, 2-to-4-unit properties already seeing discounts and good deals happen in San Diego. Commercial 5+, Not seeing much yet in San Diego market, CAP rates still too low for how high interest rates are.

Best Market - Florida

Worst Market - Arizona

THE FED – Start cutting rates slowly by the end of the year.

Recession – We will see this really show up by the second half of 2023. Jobs losses, consumer pull back and real estate market seeing more pain.

Jobs – unemployment ending the year around 5%

Call your loan servicer, I have a client were BOFA on a conventional loan is allowing them to get an EX husband off the loan.  

I get this question a lot and there is much confusion around this TOPIC.  The confusion is that EVERY lender is NOT created equal and has different guidelines.  If you are S/E ( self employed ) for example you can always ADD back Deprecation/Amortization from your tax returns, in some cases you can ADD back 1 time expenses.  1 time expenses can be; purchased a company car, equipment, did a 1 time upgrade to your office and the list can go on.  Real estate investor, if you did a cost segregation, amortization, depreciation, 1 time expenses, 1 time closing cost Fee's and this can differ from residential financing compared to 5+ financing.  1 time expenses on properties can be new roof, appliances, A/C and bigger ticket items.  Not ALL lenders will allow this and some just don't care if they were 1 time expense or NOT.  It is also helpful when your CPA files your tax returns that he does LIST out all the expenses in the "statement section" of the tax return so there is a break down of expenses and easy to recognize for an underwriter.  

 The most IMPORTANT part of ALL of this is to make sure you are working with a loan officer that has the experience and know exactly where to take your loan to make sure you can  ADD back expenses or the LO runs it up the flag pole upfront with the lender to get the green light.  

Getting the with the right LO can make or break a deal.   

Hi Kyle,

San Diego is a great spot, there is great spots ALL over the country as well to invest.  Everywhere has it Pros and Cons, you can do really well in San Diego from equity, cashflow, rent raises and etc.  San Diego is very slow to build and the city is behind the ball and will probably always be behind the ball.  I have been investing in San Diego so 14 + years, my wife and I used to manage about 1500 units and we work with tons of real estate investors that just focus on San Diego that have done really well.  Yes there is much more oversight with rent control and you have to know what you are doing.  Get a great team around you and that will help you have lots of success here.  Be careful of people that have NEVER owned, operate and had lots success in San Diego to take advice from.  I am surround by hundreds and hundreds of clients that have been winning in SD for 19 years that I have been in the RE game that are very active RE investors.  

If I can help, let me know :)

Lots of first-time homebuyers, investors and trade-up buyers that might of missed out or decided to sit on the sidelines over the last few years real estate craziness with crazy demand and low rates. 2023 might be there year to pick up an investment property or possibly buy their first home. Getting pre-approved TODAY and not waiting for 2023 can be very important. If you are self-employed, are you showing enough income? Maybe you can pay yourself more W-2 by the end of the year or maybe NOT write off all those expenses you were planning on. Planning for next year is important and putting yourself in a place to win a house starts with getting pre-approved and making sure you are good to go. You still have weeks left in 2023 to make financing decisions that could impact you differently for 2023.

I work with lots of self-employed clients over the last 19 years that purchase real estate every year and we always look at DRAFT tax returns to make sure what they file will put them in a position to be financeable with the best terms and rates. Waiting until you are in escrow or not pre-paring ahead of time can be the difference of NOT qualifying or simply having to close on a higher rate loan because you had to turn more of a NON traditional mortgage. Even if you are planning on purchasing in 6 months, it never hurts to get pre-approved with an experienced lender, I promise you that you will NOT regret that decision and you will put yourself in a much more confident position when you are ready to buy your next property or your first home.

Just locked a refi for a client, NO points 5.75% 30 year fixed!!  If inflation numbers don't shoot up in December, looks like we will be looking a much lower rates faster than expected.  I am putting it out there.  

Yes 100% can, we work with a lot of military families that do this and I am in San Diego. Great to live mortgage free and you can do high loan amounts and with 4 unit we have closed loans with 80% DTI on the 4 unit.

Love all the feedback and discussion.  I guess if we all know exactly what would happen, we would write a book called "This is what is going to happen" and we will retire LOL.  Time always tells, stay tuned :)

 @Dan H., I do because of 1 statement by the FED, it is easier to drop rates rapidly, AKA like I did when COVID hit then have to raise them again.  Raising them because he pivot too fast would kill us.  Worst case he went to far, he can pivot as you know really quickly.  I think we will see 50 BPS, 25, 25  at least and then let it sit there, unless data is NOT in our favor.  I do agree unemployment is about to hit hard right at the start of the year, mass layoffs, waiting for holiday.  Renters nation is happening for sure, BIG wallstreet buyers will be back at it in Q1, they are ready.