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All Forum Posts by: Medi Sarwary

Medi Sarwary has started 1 posts and replied 73 times.

Post: Is now a good time to start investing?

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48

Hey Nick, I would suggest analyzing lots of deals while learning as much as you can. If you could find an experienced investor to take you under your wing, do it in heartbeat. 

I think those would be reasonable goals to have...because finding the right deal in today's market takes a lot of patience. If you find the one, take it but its much easier said then done. For me a cash flow of a couple hundred isn't a good deal, but this is my target market and you'll have to define what you consider good. 

Post: East Bay (San Francisco) Meetup

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48

Post: Why hasn't the market crashed yet?

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48

While the Stock market and Real estate are separate entities, they are definitely connected in some ways.  

 -A big reason for the massive appreciation in real estate we are seeing is due to the abundance of capital from a strong economy. 

-Psychologically. This is a huge point that may not be brought up as often as it should, when the economy is humming like it is now, its a lot easier to justify obtaining a jumbo loan for your dream home. 

- International investments. When international markets are tumultuous, investors look for a safe spot to park their cash. The strong U.S. economy is a magnet for such transactions. There were blocks in san jose and san franscico called "ghost streets" because the new international owners purchased them (cash) and left them empty. When you have that kind of money a 1% cap rate isnt a concern. This isn't as common any more from my knowledge but the point that foreign investments are funneling in still stands. 

-ESPP's, stake and equity in start ups. If it was just the higher salaries driving up the market in the bay area, I dont think it would reach the levels it has. A lot of homes are bought with the Employee stock options, these options are sometimes in the hundreds of thousands and have a huge impact on the local market. 

A lot of this is local and wouldn't be relevant in a discussion for a region such as the midwest, however most OOS investors are from the coasts so the income generated from their 9-5 would be impacted. 

Post: Why hasn't the market crashed yet?

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48
Originally posted by @David Song:
@Collin Savunen

People bought properties in 2007 were asking the same question, why the market has not crashed? When they realize that it crashed in 2009, it was too late. They already bought at the peak.

Fact is, Bay Area housing market has already taken a hit, down 10-15% from a couple months ago.

Will this turn into another big crash like 2009, nobody knows.

Risk mitigation is critical in any investment. Believing price will always go up is simply ignorance and arrogance.

I have not bought anything in 2018 yet. Do not want to take this risk at this time. If the price keeps going down, might jump in.

Too many people on this forum advocate buying at any time. I disagree with that. Timing is number 1 important thing in investing.

I don't have a crystal ball, but just some common sense and gut feeling.

Very true. Once the FAANG's take a big hit (its headed for its lowest close in 6 months) the tech investors in sand hill will tighten up their spending. The cascade effect to start ups and then real estate will have a profound impact on some states (Not just CA). 

Post: Why hasn't the market crashed yet?

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48
Originally posted by @John Nachtigall:

I think the people who believe that owning rental real estate makes them immune from a downturn are being unrealistic.   It may happen, but there lots of examples where people lost everything.  Case in point, Kevin Bupp, who now does mobile home parks.   

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/4430/53887-les...

"Leading up to the crash, Kevin and the investment group wanted to mitigate their risk, so they committed to purchase SFR rental properties for no more than 65% of market value. When the financial crisis occurred, not only did property values plummet, but the rental market crashed as well. Homebuilders who had built brand new homes were unable to sell, so they were forced to hold on to them and rent them out. Unfortunately, these brand new properties were renting for the same price as the 20 to 30 year old homes Kevin and the investment group owned. As a result, they ended up giving 90% of their properties back to the banks."

Any investment has risk.

For all the folks who bought low during the recession, there were others who were over leveraged at the peak and lost everything. The methods used by most individuals now were being used then, BRRR, fix and flips etc. Its hard not to drink the kool aid but now more than ever its imperative that acquisitions are made with sound fundamentals.

Post: San Jose: Steady, Increase, or Pending Drop?

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48

Gary if you can make the drive there's a meetup in pleasanton next month

Post: Airbnb fights back against Boston!

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48

A lot of CPA's work out of their homes which are zoned as residential. Like Mike stated, this debate is about where on the scale Airbnb falls. 

The magnitude at which Airbnb would impact Boston much less than a tourist magnet such as Barcelona, which has enacted laws that sell a limited number of licences to Airbnb renters. This might be the way to go, issuing licenses during seasons (similar to hunting) thereby limiting Airbnbs impact on the community.

Post: My first deal, will hopefully be a good one.

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48

Hey Mason, a lot of the numbers are pro forma and once you dive deep in a deal you'll notice the cash flow decrease. Initially I could be making nearly 1k cash flow but after verifying the numbers that would shrink. For me making a few hundred in cash flow isnt worth the headache of OOS investment. 

You might be running the numbers right but a lot of times they play with cap rates and rental income to paint a pretty picture. Making sure the projections are accurate is key. 

To echo a lot of statements here, finding the right deal where the numbers work has been tricky. Even with the pro forma numbers the cash flow is pretty mediocre. Like others have said, prices are based off of potential value rather than the current condition. An option for me would be to look in an OOS market however I'm not comfortable with that at the moment. 

Post: The importance of physical fitness

Medi SarwaryPosted
  • Pleasanton, CA
  • Posts 73
  • Votes 48

Exercise is very important with overall health and cognitive function. Like you mentioned, its also correlated with motivation and energy.

Up until April I would go to the gym at least 4-6 times a week for 2 hours at a time. I obviously saw excellent physical results however my overall time management was difficult since a huge chunk of the day was spent on one avenue. I saw other parts of my life effected by all the time spent at the gym and on my diet, which took another hour or more to manage. 

I think its important to exercise in moderation unless preparing for some kind of event. I see a lot of people go a little too far with it and I think that could be almost as bad as not doing anything.