All Forum Posts by: Michael Wooldridge

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

So yes people are frustrated and yes they will continue to flop. I happen to believe the dems will hold more power in future years because of the frustration. And frankly given the shifts on the popular vote in recent years that trend should be obvious.

you have to be kidding. in what solar galaxy is that scenario a potential reality? i'm all ears.

 you are looking at just 2-4 year spans. I'm looking at something closer to 8-15 years. The timing has been good for GOP with economy for midterms. I don't believe it will be as red as it should be or that it will last. People are flipping because they are frustrated on economy. They will flip again. Not trying to turn this into a full political discussion but the PA senate race or Georgia Senate race are good examples. 

But sure my reality is wrong :). never mind I don't care who wins because it's all more of the same. 

at the rate those people are going, they might not even have a party in 8-15 years from now. you must not be aware of the "policies" and agendas that are getting peddled to make statements like the one above. good luck out there, Mike.

Hmm that was an impressive red wave last night. Exactly what was expected given the economic situation…… 😂
 

there's a little bit of fetterman in all of us, i've underestimated just how much more in some than the rest. i will remember this laughing/crying emoji of yours and will use every chance i have in the next two years to remind you of it. enjoy. 

I never really cared who won. I believe both sides are bad. I just could see where it’s going - I have no horse in the race and not really blinded by the “everyone must think this way”. 

But given the economic situations from gas to inflation to markets etc… It should have been a lot worse for the dems.

Hmm that was an impressive red wave last night. Exactly what was expected given the economic situation…… 😂
 

 Annualization is common (although typically you adjust for seasonality). Using a period less than annual to do it is not. Your skewing data and apparently don’t understand trend lines. Absolutely everything is wrong with your analysis and would not be done in business. 

Your own data shows the trajectory is not on pace for 18% but you apparently don’t understand forecasting at all.

My problem was you claimed 18% median adjustment. And your own data posted shows it’s not. I was polite in pointing it out. Then showed you the last 3 months trajectory (in your 4 month trend) and you don’t seem to understand what that suggests for next few months.

You haven’t factored in for anomalies, short term trends, anything. Frankly you are using 4 months - 3 of which have very litle trend down, the first month which has a larger drop. And then suggesting the data shows it will drop by that average on going. Yet the last 3 month trend completely contradicts it.

Lets it it this way lets say it trends down for 6 month (5% a month) for a total of 30%. Lets say the next 2 months it trends up 5% a month %. Are you going to predict it will be flats in month 3 and 4 because of your 4 month average? 

It also explains why you didn’t understand me pointing out that weirdly large May anomaly in DFW. 

 I don’t always agree with James but he makes a lot of valid points. As he did above. I just didn’t want to be quite so blunt but when you posted Redfin data for 18% and then told me how you calculated. Candidly I wanted to say some pretty blunt things.

Your own data doesn’t show what you claim not even a bit…

 Ok going to channel my inner James. Pretty harsh for somebody not using a trend line talking about trajectory….. 

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

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Quote from @Greg R.:

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Quote from @Greg R.:

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Quote from @Greg R.:

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Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me. 

 Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL

Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night. 

 Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

 Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September. 

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

Not seeing a national decline…..

So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble. 

 Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?

Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+. 

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way…. 

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months…. 

Yeah, I guess it would be a good idea to summon James if you want someone to post a 6 paragraph rant of nonsense to muddy the waters. 

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down. 

I'm not picking a random 4 month period in time. We should be able to universally agree that prices peaked in May. So I'm looking at post-peak prices. 

I’m not interested in being quite so blunt as he is. But he would have a field day with this. Agree May was the peak but you are literally taking the prime peak and the initial trough but then suggestion that will happen annually. 

Instead lets look at this:

July 411k - August $405k - September $403k…

What do you want to bet October is over $400k? Those same 3 months are showing exactly what it is going with. And the direction is no where near your 18%. 

 

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me. 

 Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL

Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night. 

 Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

 Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September. 

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

Not seeing a national decline…..

So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble. 

 Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?

Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+. 

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way…. 

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months…. 

 is that how you calculated growth when things are good? 

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me. 

 Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL

Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night. 

 Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

 Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September. 

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

Not seeing a national decline…..

So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble. 

 Lots of sources out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

Not seeing a national decline…..

 Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..