All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

 Budget is $750k cash or $750k in home price.

Disney is a year-round market.  May and September are the slowest months but they're still not slow by most season's offseason standards.

But you're going to want to have some cash for theming here with things the way they are, unless you're buying very close to the parks.

 I don't know if this is still accurate, but I believe AirDNA uses trailing 12 months, while Rabbu uses forward looking 90 days.

That's why AirDNA generally returns much higher results than Rabbu right now.  AirDNA still capturing a bit of inflated 2022 numbers while Rabbu's numbers get hurt by the much shorter than usual lead time currently since their data is forward looking.

That also explains why in 2021 it was the opposite and Rabbu was estimating high (since everyone was all booked up for 2021) while AirDNA was still pulling pre-covid numbers since it looks backwards.

Andrew Steffens is the resident Tampa expert around here.  I'm sure he'll be able to answer your questions.

Sounds like you want the Short Term Shop.

I looked into it a while back and if I'm remembering right yes you do have to manage with them, but the management fee is included in the HOA. It's essentially Airbnb managing it, which I would assume means they're partnering with someone for management. Although with them trying to expand into this niche (essentially Airbnb hotels) maybe they're planning to do it in-house so they can keep doing more.

If I recall that part of it was actually reasonably priced. Something like 10% covered full management and all HOA fees. But I could be mis-remembering.

The big downside to me was tying up all that money and not having a projected completion date until 2028, which as we know will likely be pushed back a few more times.  That's a lot of time to lose out on the time value of that money, not to mention who knows what that market will look like that far in the future.

Another thing I was not impressed with was the sales people.  Overseas call farm that would call back over and over and try not to let you off the phone.  "Have you looked at the packet we sent yet?", "are you ready to put down a deposit?", "we can go ahead and get that deposit taken for you right now".  Felt more like a shady telemarketing call for car insurance than a potential $1M real estate transaction.

 Well there was a time for a while there in 2021 and early 2022 where it was both easy and worth having ;)

 If they're pulling the revenue data from AirDNA then it is including cleaning fees in the revenue, and hence cleaning will need to be subtracted back out as an expense.

I think this is something that trips a lot of people up when underwriting.

AirDNA total revenue DOES include cleaning fees.

AirDNA adr does NOT include cleaning fees.

This is why when you multiply ADR * Occupancy on AirDNA you get a number that is less than the total revenue.

So if using the total revenue number then cleaning does need to be subtracted as an expense.  If using ADR then it does not.

Debt service is way up, revenue is generally down, down payments are way up, financing terms and costs are much worse.

The time of fast scaling has passed, unless you're very creative. 

It was easy to scale fast when a down payment was 15-30k on a property that cash flowed several thousand dollars per month. Not so much when down payment plus closing costs are 150k+ for properties with modest if any cash flow. 

I have homes in this market and we get people asking about them fairly regularly.  We supply them.  If you get even one person that uses it as a tiebreaker to choose your property then it pays for itself and then some.

In the Orlando area specifically, there are several of these that will do just the guest management/maintenance/cleaning while you control the listing.