@Sarah B. Tampa is one of the markets we work in and the one that scares me the most at this moment. That said, I'm heading down next week on a buying trip so I'm not totally turned off by it - like anywhere, there will be good and bad niches or strategies that work depending on the overall market. But for this city, you need to do due diligence on your due diligence more than anywhere. The biggest unknown at the moment is the huge buy the hedge funds did a few months ago. Over 1,000 properties in weeks that haven't all come back up for rent yet. But enough since March to push 3-4 bedroom SFR rents up almost $200/month since while apartments have remained fairly flat
Digging through the records to find that the only 3-4 sales in that neighborhood in the past 6 months were hedge fund deals at prices nothing before or since justifies. Or that a dozen houses on one street are owned by Wall St. Do I want to be a neighbor when they figure out that property management is a bit more complicated than collecting mortgage payments for their tranche investors?
Good for the construction trade; jobs are back but for how long? All the news reports hyping the recent unemployment numbers (but claiming the last month increase isn't indicative of a shifting market, of course). No discussion that the jobs growing were hospitality and retail - while the ones being lost were banking as Chase draws down a mortgage help center (or moves jobs to Dallas) or the cutbacks at McDill through RIF or outright pay cuts due to the sequester.
8X growth in leases signed from 2006 until now. HUD and the other big holders dumping a dozen or two houses back into the market weekly because it's taken them so long to get through the FL court system - while there's ongoing reporting of still record high new foreclosures. And cost to buy that same house is right at 50% of what the rent is.
It all just seems very frothy to me. Not "hot". Hot is DC where anything that goes on the market is gone in 12 days, all cash buyers and incredible amounts over list price when the dust settles. Standard 4 plexes in one of the worse neighborhoods for under $250K in November now going for $400K plus - with no increase in the rents because of DC's incredible rent control laws. Tampa got 'hot' in one section 3-4 bedroom SFH for a limited, predictable time (with some others rushing in on the "there's gold in them thar hills" mentality) - but I don't think we find out the true situation before the end of the year.
Interactive map where the hedge funds bought
Single Family Rent rates over the past 12 months
TL;DR - Hedge funds cherry pick on market niche over a few short months, usual cheerleaders scream "we're back, baby" when reality says many niches are still sitting still or declining. Make sure you're buying steak, not the sizzle.