All Forum Posts by: Nolan O.

Also interesting how the NY market acted very differently in the 07 drop than other markets. Reinforces the old adage that real estate is local.

@Frank Chin, great story! Very simple, important lesson there about the importance of cash flow.

@Jeremy Roll, I was just doing a little introspection and thought it might be interesting to hear what others think. I'd like to be aware of how fear and greed color my decisions with the aim of basing decision more on fact and analysis. I personally am more likely to be influenced by fear than greed.

Thanks, @John Leavelle. The options you raise seem just about right.

@Marcus Johnson, I am not certain what the appraised value would be. 

I see both as potentially blinding. Which do you think hampers you most? Any hard-knock lessons learned?

I have a SMART goal related to early retirement, or at least the option of it. My strategies have been built around that. Time with my family is a big driver. But if I'm really honest, it's also about proving myself, both to myself and others I look up to. So, yeah. Family and ambition.

I'm really digging the FRED economic data, @Marshall Easlick! I'm not an economist either, but I am a data junky and I work with scientists everyday. They have rubbed off on my a bit :) The correlation I'm interested in is how indicators like vacancy rate map to prices. In particular, I'm looking to indicators that moved in advance of price moves in the past. Vacancy rate appears to have done that leading up to the 07/08 downturn. Another indicator I've been interested in is number of building permits. The FRED data you shared shows that this too had movement that led the 07/08 price movement: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT.

Wow, @John Leavelle! Where did you get that I was driven by fear?! I didn't realize I was putting that vibe out there. Does the risk of running out a good tenant scare me? Sure it does. Does the greed make me want to up the rent? Yes, absolutely. (I personally feel that greed can be just as blinding an emotion as fear.) But the numbers ARE what I'm looking at when deciding to incentivize her to reup for a longer period. Turnover would cost me many times a year's increase in rents. With the break even point years out, risk/reward analysis told me to incentivize her to stay. Had this been a multi that would appreciate on improved NOI, the analysis might be different. I appreciate your thought and wholeheartedly agree with your underlying premise of making business decisions based on data and analysis. That's why I'm asking for input on how others interpret these numbers. (I wanted to do a peer review on my analysis.) I apologize if I'm coming off as snappy here, but I must say, it's a little off putting to be called an emotional decision maker.

Wow, @Marshall Easlick! According to that chart, vacancy rates started rising steeply about ten years prior to the 07/08 crash! Perhaps the indicator did lead.

OK, I should have known that The Google would help me find vacancy rates pre-bubble-pop. According to these numbers, vacancy rates didn't rise until the market drop had started. Trailing indicator it is, in that case at least.

http://www.danter.com/statistics/rentvac.htm