All Forum Posts by: James Park

Below are the D-Ratios by the city. The lower the D-Ratio, means that the inventory supply is scarce = greater demand = Greatest potential for appreciation. The Median and Average D-ratio is about a .51. I would say that any city with a D-ratio between .21 - .35 has a very a high potential in beating the average Case Shiller Index for Atlanta in terms of appreciation. 

Cities in metro Atlanta that currently have the tightest inventory: North Decatur, Doraville, Peachtree City, Loganville, Woodstock, Mableton, Norcross, Peachtree Corners, Powder Springs, Kennesaw, Decatur, and Lawrenceville. Honorable mentions:  Austell, Snellville, Dunwoody, Smyrna, Marietta, Bethlehme, Roswell, Alpharetta, Druid Hills, Duluth, and Johns Creek. These are all cities with a D-ratio below a .35.

The D-Ratio is simply the inventory level 02-2016 / Inventory level 01-2010. The lower the D-Ratio, the higher the demand due to lack of supply, causing prices to move upwards.

I have put a grade next to each county respective of their inventory shortage and demand. I believe Peachtree City, a very desirable suburban city in the south side of Atlanta is located in Fayette County. All of the top high school cluster are located in East Cobb, North Fulton, North Gwinnett, and South Forsyth.

MSA with the largest population growth between 2010 - 2015

MSA with the largest percentage growth between 2010 - 2015. Austin TX, Greeley CO, Raliegh NC, Houston TX, Charleston SC, Orlando FL, Dallas TX are all seeing explosive percentage growth from 2010 population numbers.

Major MSA experiencing the greatest population loss are Cleveland OH, Flint MI, Toledo OH, Pittsburgh PA.

MSA experiencing the greatest percentage loss between 2010 - 2015. 

@Jade Spell, 

Thank you for your kind words. Yes, I am very optimistic about the future of metro Atlanta and plan to concentrate my investment resources here.

For any of you who needs any analysis done in your local market via inventory, zip code, county, etc in metro Atlanta, please let me know. I will be happy to present the analysis here on this thread.   

Atlanta ranks #7 among all other MSA cities with a population growth of 424,067 between 2010 - 2015. We can estimate by 2020, the population growth in Atlanta will be shy of 850,000.

Rank

#1   Houston             736,531
#2   Dallas                  676,582
#3   New York            614,895
#4   Los Angeles       511,231
#5   Washington DC 461,452
#6   Miami                 447,696
#7   Atlanta                424,067

Below are the inventory level charts of the following counties in metro Atlanta:

Oconee (next to UGA campus), Fayette (Peachtree City), Paulding (higher cap rate), Henry (higher cap rate), Clayton ( higher cap rate), Fulton, Gwinnett, and Forsyth. 

@Bob Bowling,

Veterans like yourself have been investing in real estate longer than I have been alive. It would be very difficult for me to disagree with you when it comes to the best strategy in maximizing wealth with real estate. Yes, I agree with you that REAL real estate wealth is built more by appreciation over cash flow over a 10 year buy and hold period. I like to invest in a market where I can get both cash flow and good appreciation. Some MSA markets will give you a high CAP rate but very little appreciation if any. Out of state investors also need to think about the exit strategy rather than just chasing the high yield (Crap rate) in a market with very little potential for growth and appreciation. They will purchase a turn key property in a 4-5 school zone and realize how difficult it is for them to exit the investment.

Bob, 

Yes I agree. The lower the cap means higher the demand. Higher Demand = Lower Supply = Greater Appreciation. This is the type of stuff you learn in the first day of your Econ 101 class :).