All Forum Posts by: James Park

Top 3 Performing Housing Markets

1. Seattle 74.4%2. Dallas 72.4%3. Denver 64.2%Top 3 MSA Housing Value Markets

Bottom 3 Performing Housing Markets

1. Chicago (-3.8%)2. Las Vegas (-1.2%)3. Miami 5 % MSA Ranking by Peak to Current Decline.

This data shows how much property values in each MSA have appreciated from its last peak between 2005 - 2007. 

Notice how the Chicago and Las Vegas housing markets are still below its last peak.

@Mark Gliebe, 

Imagine the chart as a one gigantic titanic ship with 24 floors and you are seeing a glimpse of a iceberg in Seattle (first MSA city to be in the red). The top ten floors are going to be your safer real estate markets, even if there is a downturn coming up in the horizon. In my opinion, real estate in LA, SF, Seattle, and NY will have a greater downward risk if the market suddenly turns, which are the bottom 4 floors of the ship.

Mark, you are sitting in the highest floor of the Titanic (Nashville), Congrats :)

@Mark Gliebe, Sorry for some reason, my post got cut off. I explain the peak and trough number in my second paragraph.

Here are the performance by each major city from July 2018 to July 2019. The top four performing cities year over year are #1) Nashville, TN #2) Phoenix, Arizona #3) Dallas, TX #4) Las Vegas, NV. The bottom four performers are #24 Seattle, WA (first city to show a negative appreciation number this year), #23 San Francisco, CA, #22 New York, and #21 Los Angeles. I see a trend with more and more of the east coast and midwest population migrating to the South.

In my analysis, the peak value & date is the last real estate peak before the downturn. The trough value & date is the last real estate bottom before the reversal. Who would have ever thought that a city like Nashville, Tennessee would be the #1 performer in 2019 vs least performing cities like Seattle, San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles in 2019. The cities in the bottom 4 are most likely to first see red numbers in the years ahead.

Here are the performance by each major city from July 2018 to July 2019. The top four performing cities year over year are #1) Nashville, TN #2) Phoenix, Arizona #3)

With the new changes in the PRO account, are your clients no longer able to write a reference for you on BIgger Pockets? For those of you with the Premium Accounts, what additional features are you getting vs a Pro Account? 

Thank you.

I put an email yesterday regarding the profile stat changes to support_biggerpockets.com and haven't heard from anyone yet. Anybody else noticing this change with their Pro Account?

I am also curious to find out more about the new features with the Premium Account. For those BP members who upgraded to Premium what are the additional value you are seeing vs a Pro Account? 

Thanks,
James 

I recently noticed that one of the features "Profile Stats" in the Pro Account has been changed. You were able to see who looked at your profile. Is this feature still enabled in the Pro Account?  If this feature is removed from the Pro Account, is it available in the Premium Account?

This was the previous link access from the Pro Account.
https://www.biggerpockets.com/profile-stats

Thank you,
James

The only securities I that I like are the mREITs. The Roth IRA is a great place for you to hold the mREITs.

If you are take a longer horizon and you DRIP (reinvest the dividends) the mREIT over a 11 year period, mREITs (15.59%) will outperform S&P500 (8.63%). mREITs as interest sensitive and I believe the mortgage rates will continue to go down from here, not up in 2019.

@Michael Starks, 

Congrats on passing the SAFE exam and opening up your own Mortgage Brokerage.  In my humble opinion, opening up a Mortgage Brokerage was a much more involved process than opening up a real estate brokerage, but well worth it in the long term. A lot of great opportunities will open up for you.

I see the 10 year yield continuing to drop in 2019. The timing is great to be a mortgage broker.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/southern-californi...

After reading an article on the Southern California home sales crash, a warning sign to the nation, I was curious to see of the Irvine housing market was yet effected. Irvine is an affluent city in the heart of Orange County with a rough population of 277,000. This is the data I found.

There are currently 357 Irvine SFRs in the market and 324 Condos/Townhomes on the market. 

Irvine Single Family Home Update:

There are 1032 Irvine Single Family Homes sold in 2018. Inventory for SFRs are currently at 4.15 months and the average PPSF is $487.59. The Irvine SFR median home price is $1,205,750. The highest priced home sold in 2018 is 60 Golden Eagle at $17,000,000 and the lowest priced home sold is $497,000 at 107 Lake pines.

1238 Irvine Single Family Homes sold in 2017. Inventory for SFRs are estimated to be 3.4 months and the average PPSF is $468.79. The Irvine SFR median home price is $1,120,000. The highest priced home sold in 2017 is 76 Golden Eagle at $12,500,000 and the lowest priced home sold is $376,000 at 157 Pine view.

Irvine Townhome/Condo Update:

1424 Irvine Townhomes/Condos sold in 2018. Inventory for Townhomes/Condos are currently at 2.73 months and the average PPSF is $486.33. The Irvine Townhomes/Condos median price is $725,500. 

1620 Irvine Townhomes/Condos sold in 2017. Inventory for Townhomes/Condos are estimated to be 2.4 months and the average PPSF is $450.28. The Irvine SFR median home price is $656,944.

Although the SoCal housing market maybe slowing, Irvine's Single values are up 7.6%, but the transaction volume has decreased by 16.64%. Irvine's Townhomes/Condos values are up 10% from last year, but the transaction volume has decreased by 12%. Inventory levels still seem right at under 3 month which is a considered a seller's market on a national level. Interestingly, the median appreciation of the Townhomes / Condos in Irvine is 10% vs 7.6% for SFRs. Usually this number is reversed where the SFR appreciation exceeds the Townhome/Condo appreciation.

Next year would be a good time to reevaluate where prices and transaction volume stand. It seems that prices are still firm in the Irvine SFR market compared to other markets in Orange County.

James Park