All Forum Posts by: Ray R.

1. Talk to an attorney
2. Document, document, and document.
3. When dealing with the police, mental services etc the squeeky wheel gets the oil.

I had to do an eviction on a female my parents had helped out by allowing them to move into their unused 2nd story. End result was 2 of the 3 people that had moved in with the lady, went to jail. One in Federal Jail after the "fiancee" was found to have turned my parents garage into a machine shop that supposedly did gun smithing. And my parents upstairs was a huge mess after the lockout. And lots of items stolen. It was an incredible soap opera, and incredibly hurtful.

On lost rent - good luck. Usually the person evicted has nothing.

In Silicon Valley, people have been ordered in the 7 counties to only go out for necessities. "Shelter in Place" is the term being used.
https://www.mercurynews.com/20...

In CA LA County Wineries, Bars, Restaurants, theaters, and Gyms are closed. Restaurants can do take out only.
http://www.publichealth.lacoun...

Inland Empire, So Ca, where we have our units:
We just had our first tenant call us and told us they were laid off due to CoronaVirus.

Another tenant, an student, just gave notice, because their school is online till August, so they are flying back to their country.

And in an empty unit we have in Riverside, duplex, I am getting zero calls right now for leasing.

Line at Costco in Moreno Valley was around the corner at 1PM.

Riverside County is pretty much business as usual. Riverside City Facilities are closed.

Riverside School district is off till August, K-12 I heard. Which is a headache for parents with childcare.

Home Depot in Moreno Valley was very busy, but the employees there are worried. No promotions yet. Bid Room is still $1500. Huge drop in their stock price per an employee.

For white collar workers, they can telecommute. For service workers, they can't.

@Casey Rolland - Thanks for the information about South Korea!

I get similar information about Taiwan from my wife, as I type this I can hear my wife and her Father watching Taiwan News downstairs.

I have been amazed at what a great job the South Koreans have been doing on testing, and getting CoronaVirus under control, after the initial issues. 

Motion Sensor Light in the laundry Room, they are under $20. I put them in 3 laundry rooms so far.

I found a keypad entry lock by Schlage for just under a $100 a locksmith recommended, FE575, that worked great for the entry to one apartment building. We were having homeless come in and use a mirror on the 2nd floor, and sleep on the stairs.

If you can enclose your entire property, that helps.

Cameras have reduced a lot of criminal activity. They keep the honest people, honest.

Great analysis of Homeless with Stats
https://www.city-journal.org/p...

And the Documentary Seattle is Dying, 5.6 Million View on Youtube, is eye opening.

The 9th Court of Appeals Decision on Homeless has tied the hands of cities:
https://www.latimes.com/local/...

Lots of comments on this thread on the death rate.

If you have damaged lungs, such as due to pollution (Wuhan) and smoking (60% of Chinese Males smoke), CoronaVirus is much more deadly. Plus the Chinese hospital system is under developed, compared to other countries. I have a feeling that Italy also has issues with their hospital system.

South Korea has a very low death rate. Their smoking rate is around 23%.

My guess is the US death rate will be closer to South Korea, or even lower due to treatments that were discovered to be effective.

Two treatments seem to be effective on dealing are Remdesivir and Chloroquine:
http://abriefhistory.org/?p=71...

A big difference between Italy and South Korea has been their approach. Basically South Korea tested everyone, and Italy only did selective testing.

Italy seems to have large Chinese population, 500,000, that works in the Luxury products industry in Northern Italy. And they had direct flights to China that were not stopped, until it was too late.

There also seems to be a huge correlation between temperature and CoronaVirus, this makes me very hopeful.
https://www.calculatedriskblog...

And as the temperature increases in Wuhan, the number of cases is going down. Or, the Chinese Government has done an amazing job of stopping the spread of the virus. Or both.
https://www.travelchinaguide.c...

I am surprised at the speed of a CoronaVirus Vaccine being produced. One in Israeli may finish clinical trials in 3 months. Another one in the US is starting clinical trials next month.
https://www.americanthinker.co...

The Roche Testing mentioned in another blog comment is very exciting.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

My biggest frustration was the SNAFU in Testing, where the US was far behind other countries, due to NIH (Not invented here) Syndrome and Empire Building by the CDC and FDA. NY Times has good coverage explaining what happened.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...

Darpa (US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) is working on a short term therapy that would give time for a vaccine to be produced:
https://www.wired.com/story/da...

CoronaVirus Scenarious - A Few SWAG's:

Best Case Below, with my guess on chance of it actually happening.

1. A miracle happens, and testing in the US is increased by X100 and it results in the CoronaVirus being contained within a month as is happening in South Korea. Chance of this happening, 5%. The current attitude seems to be it's in the community spreading stage.

2. A vaccine is produced for general use within 6 months. 30% chance.

3. A vaccine is produced within 12 months. 50% chance.

4. DARPA treatment to increase immune system for CoronaVirus is released within 3 months - 30% chance

5. Warm Weather stops spread of CoronaVirus, as happens with regular flu. Flu season in the US is October through May. 50% chance.

6. K-12 schools are closed to stop spread in US. 30% chance of happening in US.

7. Vaccine is produced within 18 months - 95% chance.

8. Everyone in US starts wearing masks, that stops spread of virus. 10% chance of happening. The US just does not have the production.

9. CoronaVirus does poorly in hot, humid areas.

10. An instant results test is createdd.

@Jason Scott

Questions to consider:

1. What is the worst case for your flip?

2. Will you have positive cash flow to change it from a flip to a rental? 

3. How much will the SLR be costing you per month, and how long can you afford the worst case?

4. How will your target market be affected by CoronaVirus. If you are in a heavy tourism area, such as Orlando, I would pass.

5. What is the best, medium, and worst case for the CoronaVirus?

Right now there is a huge amount of uncertainty. The economy may grind to a halt, quarantines done, mass layoffs, etc. Or it may be a bad flu, with only the elderly being hugely affected. Or with warmer weather it may go away by May.

@Janelle Hicks - My Guesses on the Oil Boom Part

First, see if you can find out what their break even price is for oil in your area. See if you can track down any financials, if they are public. They may be hedged on the price of oil for the next year.

Saudi's are negotiating with the Russians in a very aggressive way, since Russia is dependent on oil, and Trump still has financial sanctions on Russian, while they are hurting the Iranians that are having major economic issues. And if the Saudi can miraculously hurt the US shale, it will be a triple play. All the parties are from low trust cultures, basically Tribal, so their attitude on negotiating is Win Lose. They don't believe in Win Win. 

The problem is all the Saudi's have for income, is oil. And the population has grown a lot, and oil income due to fracking has cratered, and they have HUGE ECONOMIC ISSUES. And they tried this before to hurt the US fracking industry, and it failed. And with internal Saudi Politics, I am not sure they can afford to do this for very long. My guess is 3 months at the most.

Analysis:
1. China seems to be getting it under control. This may be due to rising temperatures / humidity.
2. Places that are colder and have low humidity seem to be affected more.
3. South Korea due to massive testing seems to be getting CoronaVirus under control.
4. US is behind on testing compared to other countries, due to the FDA and and CDC. This is changing.

5. Lots of medicines are made in China, as well as other equipment used in hospitals in the US.

6. Taiwan has done an excellent job of containing CoronaVirus, so it is possible.

7. There has been a huge decrease in the amount of containers coming in from China to the US.

8. Mexico will benefit with some manufacturing moving to Mexico from China.

9. It will take time for shipping containers to get back to ports in China, even if China goes back to normal production. Port of LA is laying off people.