All Forum Posts by: Ryan Hebert

Obviously, the person to come up with a calculator to estimate "the market" to perfection will have discovered the golden ticket and would never give it away for free! But for the rest of us, there must be useful approximation techniques to understanding the local real estate markets.

I come primarily from the conventional stock and bond portfolio world, where historical dividend yield rates and price appreciation rates are common knowledge for various segments of the market: S&P 500 for domestic large cap, FTSE ex-US for international, Barclays for bonds, etc. I like to be informed of the long run of the market before jumping in, and I hope to bring that philosophy into real estate.

How granular can the data get, say for the metropolitan area level, for metrics such as inflation-adjusted rent (for 1 br? 2 br? 3 br?) over the past 30+ years? Property value appreciation rate (for 1 br? 2 br? 3 br? Single family? Multi-family?) over the past 30+ years? Population rates (people moving in or moving out)? What about at the county level? Or the municipal level?

I am most interested in looking at various markets and comparing these rates. Is this a fool's errand? I know Zillow's metrics are not widely lauded for their accuracy. So for the data-driven in you, using what sources do you look to find long term real estate data to estimate appreciation and rent?

Thank you to all who have replied!

@Ray Lai, yeah I was definitely lucky to start getting some money into the market in 2014-2015 before the market started spiking up. Thanks for the reassurance that my plan of action toward getting situated into the real estate markets is a solid one!

@Charlie MacPherson, that is an interesting idea I hadn't considered. And it seems like some towns like Acton, Littleton, and Maynard, outside 128 but inside I-495, are considered rural by USDA eligibility standards. From your experience and/or what you have learned from those who have pursued this path, is it harder or comparable to obtain financing than through FHA or MassHousing? It looks like income limits may restrict me here, but I will take a deeper dive.

@Dave Visaya, thanks! I know as time goes on I will have a ton of questions, and hopefully will be able to answer many more in due time.

@Steve Bracero, I have not yet started analyzing deals. I am still in the process of figuring out the averages around the various markets I am looking at. It looks like analyzing deals will require being able to have a good eye for how much an individual property could rent for in a given city/town and what appreciation would could expect in the long run, and those are still numbers unknown to me.

@Michael Pallotta, great to see perspective from someone in the neighborhood! I am under the impression that I may be 1-2 years too late for Waltham right now, given the insane level of redevelopment going on there, but I have only scraped the surface of Woburn and surrounding towns, and I know that deals could be found anywhere with a keen eye. Will definitely reach out!

Thanks @Matt Motil, @Julia Ann, and @Odie Ayaga!

@Donielle Buie, awesome! Best of luck to you as well in studying the local markets and working up to your first deal!

Hello! My name is Ryan Hebert and I currently work as a systems analyst at a marketing company on the Massachusetts 128 beltway, meaning I take the specifications from the customers and deliver them to the software engineers (well...sort of). I grew up in Worcester County, Massachusetts, and for most of my life had a fascination with what I eventually learned in high school to be economics. I went to Bentley University for my undergraduate business degree four years ago, which led me to IT but also to general investing. I have lived throughout the northern part of the 128 beltway for coming on seven years including college, now residing in Burlington, MA.

After spending most of my time after graduation aggressively paying down my high-interest student loans, I quickly caught the investor's bug. I learned early on and still agree today that diversification of income is the most important requirement to eliminate unnecessary risk. I quickly discovered the Bogleheads and FIRE communities and became an index fund investor three years ago, maxing IRAs and 401(k)s and all that fun tax optimization. But while I will continue to see the entire world market as the backbone of my path to financial independence, the leverage and tax benefits of real estate have been undeniable the more I research. My goal therefore is to supplement my portfolio with real estate, starting with a house hack in my home state and gradually growing as I become a more seasoned investor.

I have been reading BP for several months and have obviously listened to quite a few of the podcasts. I still don't consider myself completely ready to jump in. Since I don't want real estate to be my full-time gig (yet), I'm looking at FHA and other low money down approaches to get into house hacking, and I am still getting a feel for the markets I am most interested in, which include cities like Waltham, Woburn, Billerica, and Framingham. Given my market, maximum cash-on-cash returns isn't entirely my goal, but positive cash flow along with predictable steady appreciation. Learning the ins and outs of my market is my number one priority.

I hope to spend my time here at BP soaking up as much knowledge as I can, networking with investors, agents, lenders, etc. from MA and around the country to build my base as much as possible while I build up a down payment from my primary job. I hope to one day be among you who have made mistakes and made great deals and spread investing wisdom to new members. Thank you everyone for creating this community, and I look forward to being a part of it!