Originally posted by @Frank S.:
I enjoy these discussions. Thanks for opening the door to an exchange of ideas.
Anyone saving only $200 a month for retirement is on the path to outlive their assets. This is a horrible reality, unfortunately. Many don't save enough and will become a burden to their children. People should save 20% of their income for 40 years to retire at 70% of their current income at retirement. At this point, the savings will provide enough cash flow - like an annuity.
Some nice points in your response.
I used the $200/mo savings as an example precisely because that's today's reality. Most people do not save enough. But my example spreadsheet doesn't care if you save $200/mo or $2000/mo for retirement. You can extend it out however you like.
Completely agree that index funds are the best alternative for most investors, especially in a 401(k) fund. The CAGR for the S&P 500 through the last 30 years is now at 10.09% when you include dividend reinvestments. Someone challenged the spreadsheet because it will reinvest all cash flow back into the business. It has to in order to do a comparison with the 401(k) returns. I did not factor in 401(k) expense ratios since they vary wildly between plans.
Agree that the investor in index funds "owns each and every penny" of the fund, but they don't control it. Did you have any control over the China influence on our markets last month (S&P down 5% YTD)? Did you have any control over the influence Sept 11th had on the world economy (S&P down 16.9%)?
Agree 100%. That's why I stated most people should not use REI as a vehicle for their retirement. Fact is, most people have no clue or don't care about their retirement plans. Or simply don't want to invest the time. The vast majority of people never re-allocate their 401(k). They never change their investment choices. They rarely look at their statements.
The whole point of my spreadsheet was to remind those who are investing in real estate that they could do much better with their money if they are running a solid real estate plan. The biggest problem I have with the 401(k) fallacy is that the company match is such a great deal. A well-managed real estate portfolio will outperform a company-matched 401(k) in the long run. Short-term... not so much. Over the long haul, absolutely.
I expect an intelligent REI has factored in a realistic vacancy rate when they bought the place. I expect an intelligent REI has factored maintenance, Cap-EX, and property management into their purchase.
Completely agree for those who have chosen the market as their investment vehicle of choice.
Disagree if people are actively involved in building a real estate investment portfolio as their retirement vehicle and they still have more than 15 years to retirement (again starting at $200/mo). Less than 15 years? Get the match and use the rest to buy.
You can't buy your first rental until the 67th month at $200/mo.
I re-ran the calcs at $1500/mo. REI starts generating more cash around the 145th month than a matched 401(k). That assumes your employer is matching 75% of that $1500. Highly unlikely.
Let's assume that's a 20% savings rate and your employer only matches 75% of your first 8%. In that scenario, real estate starts generating more cash flow at the 85th month than the 401(k) throws off in earnings.
Again, I don't think real estate investing is a good retirement vehicle for most people. But I disagree with the notion that a smart REI investor will do better for retirement by putting their money into their 401(k) before they invest in real estate.
@Scott Trenchmade a really good point when he reminded us that most people move around from job to job. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average worker hops to a new job every 4.4 years.
Let's assume you move jobs every 8 years. Get the company match! When you leave the job, roll into a self-directed IRA that allows for real estate investing. And then buy a nice fourplex within that IRA.
Work the numbers and the scenarios. Put some thought into this and don't let the fallacies being spread by Wall St and the "gobbler"ment fool you!