All Forum Posts by: Sam Josh

@Adam Fischer

Indeed very well handled by SG government. We can learn a lot from them.

@Maurice Smith

Those who have leveraged themselves heavily should be worried. Those people sitting on a pile of cash ought to be smiling. Those with rentals in low income zones / blue collar locales ought to be very worried.

@Timothy Hero

Everything will depend on how cash rich you are. If you are cash rich you can be opportunistic and buy. If you leveraged yourself to your eyeballs, you are in trouble.

@Maurice Smith

If this thing spreads it impacts a lot of things. Travel, service industry, main stream jobs and what not. The lowest paid workers will be first to get hit, hourly workers who work restaurants, hotels, malls and retail. Private transportation and airlines will get impacted. This will test the portfolios of many a BP investor if they have invested in low income areas etc.

@Michael Lowe

I bet you want us to tell you that they are jealous of your astronomical success?

@Michael Lowe

1) My friends don’t know and should not care about what I do with my money

2) You ought to get new friends

@Aaron Moore

The definition of downturn is very diverse because it is as such and RE is hyper local, so a downturn can be caused by many factors. Most people today will refer to the downturn as one they remember from 2008. That was a liquidity crisis that was caused by housing debt dislocation. Perhaps the only one of its kind we have seen in decades. The prior one was caused by over investment is dot com companies.

That said today as we speak many cities in America are going through downturns by the erosion of local manufacturing for instance.

Once booming towns like Dayton or Detroit are good examples. My point is downturns come in different shapes and sizes. So hard to tell what exactly happens and where. In SF, I don’t recall seeing much of a stall in rents during the 2008 recession but I do recall a decline in the dot com crisis.

@Josh Miller

Everybody watches sports, does not mean they are all professional athletes.

@Shiloh Lundahl

20k I’d put in equities.

@Jay Hinrichs

Very insightful. My properties bought in Silicon Valley in 2004, saw a 20% increase until 2007 and then a 30% decrease from those highs until 2009. Same are now 2x in value from 2007 levels. The swings are quite wide indeed and things can go south until they bounce back strong. My theory is booms are followed by busts! No second ways to that. And busts are followed by big booms. Given where we are, the next cycle will be rough. But no one knows when it’s coming.