All Forum Posts by: Seamus Harper

@Account Closed What are your thoughts on cryptocurrencies? 

@Nick Gann @Samuel Pentowski If there is one thing I've learned is that, during crises, the media/government are quick to make up phrases to describe things that aren't really there.

Whether it's "weapons of mass destruction" or "flatten the curve" or "v-shaped recovery", usually, when it's all said and done, none of the seemingly expert phrases ever really depict an accurate portrayal of what's happening or will happen.

@Deano Vulcano I agree with you, the problem is we're playing the game of markets, and markets, some more than others, seem to obsess over what's happening at face value, rather than seeing through the fog. The economic implications of all of this will be FAR more devastating than the actual virus, but to the market's and those who fail to do proper research, it's all about body count at this point.

Statistically, I agree with you as most likely many hundreds of thousands more have been infected and are asympomatic or had mild symptoms and recovered. And while # of dead might also be under-reported, it is most likely that this will have a lower case fatality rate once the dust settles.

The problem is, that's not what the economy/government/media are making it out to be and as such, we find ourselves in a recession which will have implications, either for good or bad, for those of us in the real estate industry. 

My previous reply served to indicate that some of the least accurate individuals throughout this situation have been the experts which isn't helping anyone.

It was also Fauci who, on February 28, made the claim that COVID will most likely be akin to the flu rather than previous coronavirus pandemics. 

Of course, he may end up being right if, at the end of this, millions end up having been infected without a corresponding number of those dying from it, thus producing an overall low case fatality rate similar to the flu, but it's too early to tell.

@Owen Dashner You definitely summed up the domino effect we're going to see. Even if lockdown lifted tomorrow, it will take many months for people to start feeling comfortable integrating back into daily life.

On top of that, many companies now see that it's possible to continue with a smaller workforce and/or a workforce that's not necessarily physically present. Add to this the fact that companies will be hurting regardless, you're looking at much more unemployment in the months ahead. 

Will be interesting to see what happens to all those new, large-scale mixed-use developments complete with a slew of retail and dining establishments along with socially-dependent tenants like Dave & Busters. 

Some interesting perspectives here.

My family and I own several dozen properties across California. Single family homes, gas stations, gyms, etc. My parents have owned property for nearly 30 years and have seen a few recessions.

All of our tenants paid rent this past month except our gym tenant (force majure) which is a large blow to income. While we agreed to an extension of a lease for however long they are closed and not paying rent, I don't see them reopening through at least May and like the restaurant industry, the fitness industry will get hit hard, even when things get reopened. It remains to be seen if the rest of our tenants (commercial and residential) will pay rent next month.

We are in a recession and anyone who thinks we'll just bounce back from this in a few months is delusional. At best we get ourselves a prolonged recession with inflation. At worst we're looking at a Great Depression scenario similar to the 1930s with hyperinflation and increased government oversight.

It'll take some time for real estate prices to move but they'll catch up. Yes there will be opportunities but thinking of the bigger picture, who knows what our economy will look like once restrictions are lifted, both short term and long term.

When this is all said and done, we'll look back and realize we destroyed our economy and gave up more of our liberties all for a virus.