All Forum Posts by: Amit M.

I agree. $1mil in equity now may mean $2mil in equity 10-15 years from now in prime Bay Area. 

Apartment bldg in some rando area 10-15 years from now? Not so much.

Ok, more seriously, for some veteran posters it’s one of those “it’s not you, it’s me” breakups. It’s not that the forums have necessarily devolved (after all you pick and choose which to read and engage in.)  It’s that when you first signed up, 1- you probably had a lot more to learn, and 2- everything was new and novel. Now, many veteran posters are old pros, with diminishing returns (except for business lead generation or entertainment purposes.) I know that personally I’m finding less and less posts useful.

forums 

getting

boring

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3 bitchy words

@Spencer Hsu I see it this way: While it’s easy to get in and out of stocks, real estate is a long term buy and hold- especially in the Bay Area, where you’re making your big gains on appreciation. So it’s usually best to hold on during downturns, and wait for the next upswing. But you do needs reserves or manageable cashflows.

@David Song I think that is what you’re aiming for too? I appreciate your optimism for the long term prospects of the Bay Area. Are you long term buy and hold?

@David Song to his defense, what he is saying is that he’s not expecting to perfectly “time” the market to an ideal date. What’s he’s saying, for the Bay Area, is that the chance is greater that prices will go down somewhat rather than go back up this year. So might as well wait and see. Prices won’t tank here, but they may soften more, and be flat for awhile. That’s a good time to buy. Going back to the Great Recession of 2008-9- ballers brought in 2009 or 2010. But you could also get great deals in 2012, when there was already clear evidence that the worst was already behind us. I’m referring strictly to prime Bay Area markets, as I don’t closely follow others, so YMMV.

But for people buying their own home, if they find a decent deal now, and expect to hold it for 5+ years, then it may be worth to go ahead and get in the market. There are some benefits- market is more even keeled now, and rates are low. Especially if you’re looking at specific neighborhoods and specific types of homes. In the Bay Area there is often low inventory, and if you’re specific in your needs, you may want to get in when the opportunity avails itself. In 10 years time it won’t matter if you got in at bottom ore close to bottom. 

@Susan Tan “$500k 250-sqft studio in Oakland.”

Good to know that you’re looking objectively at the Oakland market. 
And congrats- that’s the most ridiculous thing I have read on BP in a long time!

@Susan Tan
Why don’t you look in Oakland? There are affordable and walkable neighborhoods, plus it’s central to everything. You could also consider 2-3 units if you don’t want to live with roommates. (If you take the smallest unit, and rent out the biggies your cashflow situation will improve.) And you can also target up and coming areas, so they gentrify and evolve as you live there. So you’d basically gain appreciation from both “house hacking” and neighborhood gentrification, as well as live in a walkable neighborhood. A three-fer!

@Justin Thorpe as to replies to your original question...crickets...crickets!

Personally I think trying to time the RE market is a foolhardy endeavor, especially for private investors like most people on BP. If you already own property now, to sell it at the high, wait, and buy again at the low is almost impossible. Think of it, you’re going to pay 5-7% sales/transfer taxes, plus capital gains up front. The dip you’re speculating on better be significant, and you need to time it right. Not likely. 

As for RE funds and sponsors, that’s perhaps a different story. They basically raise funds, so they can build a war chest in anticipation of trying to buy at, or close, to market lows. But those sponsors are also the same ones that raised money in the last 2-3 years and also brought property then. Especially if it’s commercial, I bet a lot of those sponsors are going to have a difficult time delivering the profit spread they were predicting 2-3 years ago. Their job is basic to raise money and invest it, at whatever cycle  the market happens to be in. 

@Roee Hazut you fail to say what city and state you live in. Hard to advise without this basic info!

@Steven Jackson unless owner can deliver it vacant, I would NOT take this risk. And if it’s delivered vacant, locks must be changed and any floor level windows boarded up. Property must be secured!

Also you  and current owner need to check and see if “anyone” put any utilities under their own name, and that must be changed. Basically, if these squatters are smart, they put a utility under their name (pg&e is easy to change btw). And once they are there 30-32 days, YOU ARE SCREWED! They can claim a de facto month to month  lease. It’s enough to make it a court issue, not police Coming in and kicking them out for trespassing (and especially in today’s heated racial climate...good luck with that!) Court won’t deal with this for months due to covid. Plus squatters can claim covid effected them, etc. to delay further.

So...unless delivered vacant, and bldg secured, this could easily be a cluster of epic proportions! On the plus side, I doubt it will sell in this climate with squatters (unless owner want to sell for super cheap).  So you may well be able to force the issue with the seller. Just be patient :)

Good luck, and keep us posted!