All Forum Posts by: Amit M.

@Account Closed that article is click bait garbage imo. 1- zumper has crap data analysis (like Zillow’s zestimates- usually laughable garbage) 2- they are lumping in the high rents of new condo bldgs (with tons of hyped up amenities) with regular apartments, and the high end has fallen (at least in SF), but the bread and butter Apartments are same or a bit below their recent #’s.)

my2c

@Brian Singh

I think the recent work from home hysteria is a fallacy. Conceptually, working from home has NOTHING to due with covid 19. If it’s so awesome, why wasn’t it adapted en mass years ago? Yahoo a couple years back even rolled back WFH. It’s a trend that will have some effect yes, but it’s being way over hyped. For two main reasons: 1- I’m not sure it will really provide long term benefits to the tech firms jumping on the bandwagon now 2- I’m not sure how many employees will ultimately like it, after the forced-Covid-novelty wears off. i.e. it’s hard to get all those cool tech co benefits like free gourmet food, gyms, awesome office spaces, etc., etc. piped over a zoom meeting.

As for WFH effect on the Bay Area, keep in mind that when people work from home, their direct environment becomes MORE, not less important. Would you rather be home based in the Bay Area with tons of things to do nearby, good weather, lots of nature, etc. or someplace with little culture, extreme temperatures, bland immediate environment, etc., etc. There is a reason many people, who can afford to do so, aspire to live in CA and especially the Bay Area. Working from home isn’t going to radically change those aspirations.

I get 3x rent of gross income on a regular basis in San Francisco, especially with professional roommates, dual income couples, etc. 

Maybe the kids can get part time jobs ;)

@Brendan O. pass that pipe over here bro, cause you must be smoking some good sh*t!

LOL

@Robert C. WRT SIP in SF (acronyms, heh, heh) I see it differently. I’d much prefer to do that in a vibrant city, where I still have a lot of things I can do. Lots of nearby restaurants serving take out. I can still take varied neighborhood walks from my home. I’m still close to nature and parks. I can chat with local friends in parks while social distancing.

Not sure why city people will want to SIP in a burb, where they can’t walk to anything (or at best one lame strip mall.) They’ll feel more isolated. As for moving to a getaway vacation spot, I think that’s a nice fantasy, but again it will feel creepy and isolating. When something unexpected like covid 19 occurs, most people want to keep a semblance of normalcy. Of course those with uncomfortable living situations may feel compelled to make a move. I have 2-3 tenants that SIP’ed with family, so it will be interesting to see if they return to SF. So some dislocation yes for sure, but I don’t think it will be massive. Most young city professionals just put their big boy/gal pants on and are dealing with this :)

prepare

for

worst

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3words

hope

for

best

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3words

@Robert C. I’m generally feeling your optimistic sentiments too, but, it’s for a *highly* SF Bay Area centric market only! Other parts of the country may vary dramatically. 

In my experience, basically March-April sucked for tenant turnover, because SIP was new, alarming, and no one really knew what the f*ck was going on.  End of April and onwards, the professionally employed (Often younger) Bay Area crowd gained their confidence, and life resumed, including apartment rentals. So my rents in SF have largely stayed the same, and I have had decent inquiries for my recent vacancies. And (almost) needless to say, all my tenants paid their April and May rents with zero incidents. 

I’ve also noticed that homes and condos are still selling briskly in SF. Maybe the larger condo towers with multiple units for sale (and some expensive rentals) are taking a more pronounced hit, but the homes in the local neighborhoods are moving!

As SIP continues to loosen (it’s happening all across the country, in CA, and even starting in SF) confidence is returning big time, as people want a sense of normalcy. Of course we’ll have to see how the infection rate will change, but hopefully it will be local, and dealt with on local levels (as opposed to SIP being reinstated on a statewide basis.)

But yeah, these are definitely rosier scenarios ;) Not unrealistic, but optimistic. And don’t forget, this is an election year as well, so more unpredictability with such a polarized nation. We all just have to hang tight, as only time will tell...

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my2c

@Johnson H. hi, and I agree with you. These have been my experiences thus far:

1- the rental market in the city is returning normal. Rents for me are about the same (for non condo bldg/amenity loaded properties, which are dropping in rents...)

2- my experience in march-April was different, when the pandemic just hit and SIP was a strange novelty, because people really didn’t know what the f*ck was going on, and finding new tenants then was a royal PITA. But now, especially with young people, it’s back to business as usual, and dealing with turnover is better now. 

3- I think the WFH phenomena is way over hyped and a giant balljack! Basically it’s been forced on by covid, and people aren’t thinking long term implications. Put it this way, if WFH is so fantastic for both employees and companies, why wasn’t it used en mass years ago? Because it has a lot of negatives (some discussed on this thread), that’s why!  The positive upshot is that more companies and departments will allow for flex schedule, so more people can work 1-2 days/week from home, which will be a great balance for some people.

4- As for SIP and city vs other living, I still think SIP is much better in an urban environment. Enough varied restaurants are still open for take out, I can still take simple and varied neighborhood walks, I’m still close to nature trails. Many amenities still exist. Personally if I was off in a suburb, I’d be more bored than ever with SIP. 

5-  covid and the economic consequences will not fundamentally change the S.F. Bay Area housing market. People will still aspire to live here. Tech will still be prominent  here, and it will be interesting to see how bio and medical will increase in prominence as teens who grew up during covid will gravitate towards those fields in the next several years.  I think covid will strengthen those industries, which are highly concentrated in the Bay Area already, giving us another high growth economic engine. 

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my2c

@Aviv Harkov personally I think looking abroad for BRRRR is a waste of time. You need to be hands on with BRRRR and doing that remotely is a recipe for disaster. You'll be buying through and *heavily* relying on some middleman, who already made their money offering you their property. Plus you really don't know anything first hand about the quality of those markets.

If I were you I’d look at buying locally in Israel. Can’t you use one of the government programs which help young people buy their first flat? I know several people doing that, and renting them out while living where they want.