Jon I like your numbers.
I made a call after I shot my mouth off and it's 5.9-6% at 80% LTV no cost rate and term refi. My broker is cheap and very good at his job.
You can get a decent refi as a rate and term right away. I am recording a note at COE for the total amount of the future refi. The note is payable to a partner with a different last name. Because the note is recorded the same day as the purchase and is for the full amount of the future refi I can get around the annoying 6 month refi problem.
Jake
1) With unemployment being what it is in the IE, how worried are you about the stability of your tenants? As I'm sure you've figured out, lots of tenant turnover kills your numbers.
I have several partners and friends that have had rentals out here for 15 or more years and are experiencing the same 2/24 month vacancy they always have. The simplest answer is section 8. They will pay $1290 for a 3 bedroom and $1580 for a 4 bedroom. These tenants are easy to find and never move. It takes 5 years to get a section 8 voucher and the state deposits the money direct into your account. Section 8 is always my back up plan but it is a very solid one.
2) Along the same lines, I recently read a DB Analyst report that had the IE pegged as having the projected 10th highest % of distressed inventory for all MSA's in the country. You don't think that will continue to drive down price?
No one has the answer to this. Inventory is below 2 months and every property has multiple offers over the asking price. Last month showed a .25% price increase but I suspect were very stable now if not on the way up. My most recent research showed us to be 29% below value. Median 2 parent household income is 60-65k and last months average FHA payment was $1150. We are obviously experiencing very high affordability
3) Since you probably just mentally disagreed with me... the same report projects a 14% decline before a "bottom" is reached in the IE. I'm just sayin...
See above.
Now, I'm all for the "if the numbers work" mentality just like you are, but shouldn't you want SOME shot at appreciation if you're going to buy and hold?
Appreciation is obviously the end goal here. Because these prices are so artificially I'm going to go out on a limb and say prices will double in 7 years max. This area has an indisputable specific cycle.
However, I don't hold properties that do not make sense. My clients have been buying with me from mid last year and will continue until the numbers no longer work. You can only eat a hippo one bite at a time.
Tim
I was going to keep it until I saw the inventory plummet and I through and extra 7k at it. This place was in pretty bad shape. It is a 1550sqft 4bed 2 bath built 1979. It had holes in the wall so big I could see all the way through the house. Believe it or not 31k was cheap. I used to do rehabs myself and I only paid cost+10% to my contractor.
Moving markets are like most places, summers about double winter. This year was different. We closed just under 500 sales this November as apposed to 68 sales November 2007. To put that in perspective we were closing 250-250 units a month in the summers of 2003 and 2004. I suspect all of 2009 and a lot of 2010 will be the same. If the back log of loan mods finally fails and we have a steady stream of 1000 listings or so the market will remain stable and priced very well.
Side note: The way people live in the IE is what gives investors such an opportunity. Everyone has rims, a bigscreen TV, and rents. The majority of buyers using a loan are FHA (97% or so) and most sellers pay closing costs. Homes that don't qualify for FHA tend to sell for 20-40% less than their counter parts. Big opportunity here and believe me I'm not the only one who knows this.