All Forum Posts by: Toby Munk

Flipper, I traded on the floor of the LIFFE exchange arbed options, traded cross currency options, went on to do structures commodity products and trade energy derivatives. Total about 10 years in the financial world. MBA in finance. Worked for banks, myself, large energy companies....

All that does not mean I am right, just potentially means that I am not just talking without any background on the subject.

A new CEO will take all the losses they can find. The banks reporting billions and billions of losses is a good start. All I am saying the banks that have a change at the helm are the ones that will report as close to the truth as you will find.

Yes, I was front page news in the local Aspen Times newspaper. That is what got people aware of the truck. The rest is word of mouth.

The basic conundrum is that people that like to use a free truck are not the people that can afford Aspen real estate. They are the people that might get in contact with people that are interested in real estate. But if they forget me by the time they bump into someone the link is broken.

Everybody is always very grateful about the truck, lots of good will, and I do not want to make money on the thing. After all it was supposed to be a give back to the community effort. But I would like to get the truck paid by referrals and donate my time to organizing it, getting it serviced etc...

It is a lot of work, believe me.

OK, in terms of books I can recommend these.
Search Engine Optimization for Dummies
ABC of SEO

That will convey the basics.

There are a few basic concepts that one has to get straight.
- inbound links are like votes for your website
- the more important a website that is linking to you the better
- website are more important if the have a higher page rank
- page rank is a measure which google calculates using inbound links
- the fewer links are on a page the more important the individual link
- reciprocal links are worth less than one way links
- content is king
- do your research as to the keywords you want to be found on
- track your ranking with a program like advancedwebrankings
- write articles on the topic of your expertise and distribute through content providers online
- attend a lot of online forums on SEO, learn from the experts, learn what to believe and what not
- do it, the first success will energize your efforts

As I said, any question I am happy to try to answer.

1. You can offer whatever commission you feel fit.
2. I would offer the commission to the selling agent (the one that brings the buyer) as co-op
3. Chances are much bigger that someone other than listing agent will bring the buyer.
4. If the property is overpriced no amount of commission is going to get a savvy buyer to buy the property just because the realtor gets more money.

The institutions that have installed a new CEOs will come clean ASAP. The new boss has the chance to get all the old stuff out of the closet without people blaming him. Then he can start new.

So watch for the likes of Citi Group over the next earnings season. If no more losses are reported then we are through the worst.

I think another piece has been temporarily added to the mortgage puzzle. Risk perception. As the above article explain mortgage interest rates are loosely tied to the 10 year treasury note.

But for mortgages to be eligible to be bought by Fanny Mae they have to be below $417k or so. Everything else is considered a Jumbo loan.

The interesting thing is that the spread between Jumbo and conforming loans has never been wider. On can get a 30 year fixed conforming loan in the low 5%'s but Jumbos are at least a full 1% higher.

The market is not willing to take on mortgages they can not pass onto Fanny Mae or the likes. Just shows you how the banking system is reeling from the fallout of the mortgage crisis.

Greed has to have consequences otherwise it will just repeat itself in a different form.

Funny that the 2000 internet bubble was followed by an even bigger housing bubble.

I guess the Fed's decision to cut interest rates to historic lows lit the fire and then speculation took over. So let the market forces take care of the problem. If you believe in efficient markets why interfere?

It might be hard for some but why should stupidity be rewarded? I agree with prior post that any effort to help is just going to prolong the problem.

I have to disagree. It totally depends what you do with that money. If you are taking out a HELOC to buy a car and otherwise spend the money. YES, do not do it. On the other hand if you take out a HELOC and buy another property that is cash flow positive (including the interest of the HELOC) then go for it.

I guess the question is more of a theoretical nature since my local mortgage broker is telling me that the HELOC market is all but dried up.

I have a 10 year trading background in financial derivatives, mostly options arbitrage and structured commodity deals.

As a trader it is clear that it is much better to buy a stock (real estate) in a rising market than in a falling market. The real estate market is like like a cargo ship. It takes a lot to stop it. So while it was going up chances were that it would keep going up. Just as now chances are that it will keep going down.

Nevertheless I agree that if for REI the cash flow is right one should still do deals. If the projects carry themselves it does not matter if prices go lower in the short term. You have the staying power to see better days and unload the property then.

It depends on your cost of money. Lets say you are borrowing at 8%
If you have $100k of net profit in the building then your net cash flow would have to be $8,000 per year to be indifferent. If you earn less sell. If you earn more keep.

This is if you can borrow without selling. If your $100k earns you more than you would pay for borrowing that money and you can actually still borrow money for your next deal, keep the building.