@Ken M. I have a very different optics/perception of all this. 

Notice how these heat maps of all the decline markets, overlay in almost perfect lock-step with previous years heat maps of the hottest, strongest, fastest appreciating markets? 

That is a very important stand-out data point. 

Yes, without a doubt there is these assorted other little factors at play which honestly have been at play for years; interest rates, rate-locked, incomes lagging inflation etc etc.. But these are all nothing new, these have been in effect for some time now. 

Now keep in mind I am an active trader on NYSE. 

What I see is what we see in stocks literally all the time, it's fundamental to stock and options trading. 

What I am seeing is called Price Consolidation. 

Things are trading within a range, not breaking up, not breaking down, and following a strong trend that ran. 

We had an EPIC strong trend that ran for a heck of a time. A 10% step back after an 80% run-up is not an "oh-no" anything, it's just Price Consolidation. 

One indicator that we are in Price Consolidation is volume. We have not seen volume with a surge nor fall off a cliff, volume is holding steady in it's channel. 

Question is what comes next? 

In NYSE trading terms we'd be looking for indicators of a roll-over where things break down, trading down, which is generally from the run-up over shooting fundamentals on momentum OR something of significance changed in the fundamentals and market prices down to the level of fundamentals. 

In trading down, sure, momentum events can happen. For example TSLA recently shot from 350 too sub 290 due to the Musk/Trump tweet wars. But stocks trade FAST. Real Estate does not, and is less susceptible to such. 

In real estate momentum events require much bigger, deeper, substantive drivers. We don't have any of those factors right now. 

Next action which I see as most applicable for real estate now is Trading Sideways. 

Trend Fatigue is for sure at play, as is New Entrants and Sentiment including Consumer Sentiment and Investor Sentiment. As is Pent Up Demand. 

All this witches brew spells sideways market. 

Lastly, and I believe 2nd most likely, is Price Breakout. 

This is like what happened when NVDA rebounded from low around 90 too 120's and sat there for a time in Price Consolidation, and than Broke out to it's now trading channel around 145. 

Price Break-outs require buyer demand and justifying catalyst. 

In Real Estate we have buyer demand in spades, Pent Up Demand is a massive loaded spring. We don't have a justifying catalyst. That could be a significant drop in mortgage rates, something significant to increase median incomes, or as we saw in covid days a FOMO event. 

Keeping in using a NYSE simile: 

I see a sideways market of Price Consolidation for general market with specific micro individual markets doing there own micro-market things both up and down. 

With a Breakout hungrily waiting for it's catalyst to explode. 

A "Crash" which would be 30% or more drop to median prices, I lend a <5% potential on a macro level. Only via a Blackswan is this feasible. And the very nature of a Blackswan is it's completely unseen, unknown and unpredictable. So that 5% is generally the omnipresent 5% blackswan potential meaning, nothing pointing to any 30%+ drop potential. 

I lend a <20% potential to a macro decline into next lower Price channel, which would be median home prices declining by 11%-17%.      

I lend an 80% probability of macro real estate trending within a 10% channel of median home prices, with historical seasonal adjustment, for foreseeable future. 

Sunbelt I peg with a 12-18% downward deviation for price correction, which is actually just rubber-band effect from the over-shoot of the upward momentum it had. 

All in all, much of this was long seen and predicted as very normal "next cycle" actions from what went through prior. 

I also lend a 100% certainty prediction of posts and videos calling for an imminent crash, collapse, GFC type "reset". I don't understand the doom obsession but they lap-up every little sneeze of things. 

Lastly, the most likely Spector hanging out there is of a currency crisis. And when that comes to pass, there will be huge volatility but in general real estate will skyrocket. Asset's in general will jump but real estate is a unique asset also being 1 of the fundamental human needs. 

After such jump is time to sell, because what comes next if the jump is big enough is the real risk of socialized housing. Picture a USA where median rents are 65% of median incomes..... Yeah, that's a lot of pressure to radically shift things. 

That's when James will be Bitcoin rich, property poor, and watching it all go haywire on tv from a veranda in Cape Town.....    Always have your exit strategies, right.