Need advice / help analyzing to purchase 1st deal in CA

[Stacy Ford]

Hi BP family, I'm in Oceanside area of San Diego County. Currently renting but have the funds and lender pre-approval ready to go to purchase a property. First thought was to find a duplex or (home w/ ADU), live in and rent out the other. Hopefully after one year or so of house hacking I can move onto to another investment. My hang up is every time I try to run the numbers I come out extremely negative on my COC return and passing up on properties for fear the rental income won't be enough to cover the mortgage and utilities during and after me moving out. Since CA is over priced still and interest rates are high am I out of luck for now to make these deals work? I am not scared of the high interest rates, willing to jump in for the right deal and hang on long term. Or would the advice be for now to stick to something smaller, less expensive like a condo or townhome to get my first door in and rent that out later when prices and rates are more favorable? Thoughts? Advice?

Sample of numbers: Turnkey house with private ADU in Vista, CA

House:  3B/ 2Bath 1100sf large yard with room and approval for 2nd ADU potentially

ADU: 1B/1B 500sf private yard and entrance

List Price: $899,000 

20% down: $184,000

Financing: $715,000

Closing Costs $16,000

Total invested: $200,000

Mortgage Pymt: $5600/mo

Annual Rent Income (both) $70,800 aprx ($3500 House/mo) ($2400 ADU/mo) aprx

Prop Tax: $9,930/yr

Insurance: $1080/yr

Mortg Pymt: $67,200/yr

NOI: $70,800 - $11,010 = $59,790

Cash Flow: $59,790 - $67,200= [$-7410]

ROI: $-7410/ $200,000 = [-0.03%]

[Nathan Gesner]

Not every market can cash flow. Markets typically provide good cash flow or good appreciation, not both. San Diego is a market where it's expensive to purchase, then you just sit and wait for the appreciation to take place, then sell it for profit. But you have to carry annual losses every year while waiting for appreciation to happen and you have to be patient because it could take 10+ years before it pays off.

We're in a peak market, so the appreciation ship has already sailed and prices are coming down. I anticipate they will continue to come down for the next year, maybe longer if the economy doesn't improve.

you are better off learning to invest in another market where properties cash flow. BiggerPockets has a lot of discussions about what markets to consider, how to invest long distance, etc.