People are fleeing California, are you?

311 Replies

@Karen Margrave

It sounds like you made the right choice for you and your business . I don’t like the policies that are being proposed and enacted at the state and local levels either .
They mostly seem to come from a place of ignorance . They seem to be from the group of people one of my old teachers called , “Those that are well intentioned , but ill enforced” ..

Much of the policy is based on emotion versus math or reality . Unions have a lot of political influence too . Jerry Brown was against the $15 hour minimum wage but then passed it because of union pressure . That is definitely not a law that is good for businesses especially small business that can’t afford automation technology .

If someone owns a home that is paid off or a tiny mortgage and enough to pay living expenses they have little incentive to move especially with Prop 13 keeping their taxes low . Unless they just want a change of scenery.

Originally posted by @Vinay H. :

THis is what happened to Sydney which was as hot as San Francisco in 2016

===============

A Stanmore terrace in even worse condition is listed at $1 million. The walls are riddled with cracks and parts of the floors and roof have collapsed. It too requires hundreds of thousands of dollars to restore it to a liveable standard.

There are also a range of other homes currently advertised at considerable discounts.

A four-bedroom duplex on West St in northern beaches suburb Balgowlah is currently listed for $325,000 below its original price of $1.9 million.

In Belfield in the Canterbury area, a home at Statham St is being offered at a $275,000 discount on the initial listed price of $1.45 million.

A unit inside this building at 301/1-9 Meagher St, Chippendale, was first listed at $520,000 to $550,000 but sold for $429,000.

A unit inside this building at 301/1-9 Meagher St, Chippendale, was first listed at $520,000 to $550,000 but sold for $429,000.Source:Supplied

A two-bedroom unit on Liverpool St in Darlinghurst is advertised at $100,000 below the original listed price of $1.5 million.

Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee said it was inevitable that sellers would reach a point where they could no longer command prices $100,000 or $200,000 above what comparable properties sold for months ago and still find a keen buyer.

“Sydney pricing has been extreme for many years,” she said. “We’ve now hit the point where buyers can no longer continue to keep paying more.”

 Sydney real estate was much more over-priced than CA real estate, and Australia/UK were hit by economic downturns recently, unlike CA which is doing extremely well.

Definitely not leaving. Born and raised in Northern CA, so I've long had the attachment. I was fortunate that when the condo complex in which I was renting converted to sales last year, I was able to purchase my unit. The running joke among my [also native] friends is that if you leave, you may not be able to afford to come back, so you might as well stick out until you can really establish roots. My friends that have left due to the high costs of everything weren't native, so they didn't have quite the same affinity for trying to stay.

That said, I have a day job that pays well (not tech engineer well, though, lol) plus my accounting business, so I've figured out how to make it work. I'm estimating I'm about a year or two away from being able to afford to invest in real estate locally but it's a goal I'm actively working towards.

Currently in CA.

Lived here 35 of my 40 years. Spent 5 year in college and playing baseball. Traveled all over the country. I’ve seen it all and loved parts of many places but overall nothing compared to Northern CA.

If I ever end up leaving CA, it would be to another country, not another state. If cost of living was a concern I would rather be in a South America beach town than a cheaper state. My girlfriend is from Recife, Brazil, it’s absolutely beautiful but crime is a concern.

Outside of maybe Manhattan there is nowhere in the country with more opportunity than California. All these people that say they want to leave in a poll start signing a different tune when the rubber meets the road. I am a realtor, investor and small developer in El Dorado Hills CA. I’m 30 mins North East of Sacramento on the way to Tahoe. We get a ton of Bay Area transplants due to the lower cost of living and bang for your buck... but only 1 out of 4 people from the Bay Area that tour homes end up buying. The vast majority kick some tires but don’t pull the trigger if they can continue to live comfortably. I know dozens of business owners and wealthy folks that attempted to retire in Incline Village, NV for tax reasons... they all end up moving back. If you pull title records in My town you will find a bunch have mailing addresses at a PO Box or cheap condo in Incline Village.
I know a dozen more that didn’t save any money because their wife divorced them for trying to drag her from SF or Los Altos to Reno.

I've lived in CA for 8 years, in a little agricultural town 45 minutes outside Sacramento. I am not going anywhere. Many people I know talk about leaving due to cost of living, high taxes, home prices but it's a case of the grass always being greener on the other side. You'd have to sacrifice a lot for the money you'd save by leaving. For our family, sacrifice means saying goodbye to our diverse community, beautiful landscape, mountains/beaches/rivers/lakes/vineyards/big cities/ rural towns all within 2 hours' drive, tolerance of our mixed-race family, beautiful weather, educational freedom (one of the most homeschool-friendly states in the country)... We pay a lot in dollars for these privileges, and we don't take them for granted. We have seriously considered leaving multiple times, because even on a 6-figure salary as a pharmacist, it's challenging to make even a frugal living here. But, if the motivation for leaving is solely increasing cashflow, we have to ask ourselves why we want more cashflow. And the answer is, so we can have a better lifestyle. Yet we can't envision a better lifestyle anywhere else. So, we stay.
  • Do you live in California? Yes, my entire life, besides my time in the Army.
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years? Yes.
  • If so, where? El Dorado County.
  • Will you be staying or leaving? Staying, though if I didn't have family roots here.... I would possibly move.
  • Why? Weather, RE Market appreciation, family roots
  • What is your full time income producing job? RE Agent, RE Investor

California is a pretty awesome place, which is why the population has steadily grown despite people leaving in droves. 

All that being said, there is a few drawbacks to calling Dumbf*ckistan home:

  • Gas prices
  • Taxes
  • Gun laws
  • Taxes
  • And taxes
  • And more taxes

Essentially if it wasn't for the government, California would be absolutely heaven on earth. But that's just like... My opinion maaannnn...

It looks like most Californians are staying, rather than leaving, based on this poll results.

What concerns me is that ca seniors who retired and still want to stay here, which resulted in lack of inventory in Bay Area. Younger professionals moving to Bay Area can not find houses and had to compete against each other.

Therefore, the problem is not people leaving ca, but people refusing to leave even when it makes sense to leave. Contrary to the fake news.

  • Do you live in California?                                                          yes
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years?                  yes and many more
  • If so, where?                                                                                San Diego
  • Will you be staying or leaving?                                                 staying most likely
  • Why?                                                                                             Roots cost of living here has been mitigated
  • What is your full time income producing job?                       Contractor

Fun game:

  • Do you live in California? Yep
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years? Since 2009
  • If so, where? San Diego the whole time
  • Will you be staying or leaving? staying
  • Why? Weather, outdoors activities, our business is located here, my day job is here, lots of friends out here, amazing place to play the appreciation cycle after each correction 
  • What is your full time income producing job? Program management for the Department of Defense, and real estate investing

• Do you live in California? Yes. L.A.

• Have you lived in California in the past 5 years? Yes. All my life.

• If so, where? Grew up in Watts. Lived in different parts of Southeast LA, and have now lived for 4 years + in Koreatown.

• Will you be staying or leaving? Staying, though I am open to moving, but not anytime soon

• Why? My whole life is here. A job I love, all my family, a church community I grew up in. Plus after all this time, I am still in love with this city. Great music scene, cultural activities, food, diversity, etc etc.

• What is your full time income producing job?  I work as an administrator in a Christian seminary (a 5 min drive/ 20 min walk from where I live)

I grew up in San Jose and now live in Long Beach. We've been threatening to leave the state for years (to FL), but my salary would be cut in half, and the cost of living can't be THAT much less. Yes housing and taxes are cheaper, but I don't think enough to make up for the giant cut in salary. While I'm still here, I can save money and invest out of state. 

  • Do you live in California? Yes
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years? Yes
  • If so, where? Long Beach
  • Will you be staying or leaving? Maybe leaving
  • Why? It's great to be able to go to the beach year round, but also tired of the concrete jungle and traffic. Also seeking more nature, trees, less governing, and just a new location to explore.
  • What is your full time income producing job? Construction Project Manager

I grew up in LA but left for Austin after meeting my wife and I couldn’t be happier.  Really didn’t feel like I was able to save as much as I should have while making six figures.  I meet plenty of California transplants here in the same or higher income bracket so the California migration in that article feels very real, much to the disappointment of native austinites.

Fun thread, I suppose.  People from CA, actually from there, should want to stay -- that is their home.  Sure there are economic drivers for many that would make them want to leave.  I get that.  And you are certainly welcome here in TX.  But damn people, your home is your home -- no, I don't want to live there, but why call them out in a thread like this?

I remember as a kid growing up in SW Washington State, just north of Portland, we had signs and T-shirts that read "Welcome to Oregon/Washington/wherever, now go home."  It was a sarcastic way of recognizing that CA was moving in and staying, and they had the buying power to make themselves right at home.  35-40 years later, this has not apparently changed. 

Now I live in TX and I cannot afford to move back home (yet), if I wanted to. Fortunately for me, I like it where I am and life is good here. Although I would like to, eventually, get a SFR or two back in the homeland.

Sure it's expensive as hell now up there, just like CA, and almost as goofy, but like I said, it is always going to be home.

I think this thread speaks for itself that people are not leaving. But to be fair, people on BP are the smart savvy investors, so for most the cost issue has probably been neutralized or even flipped on its head buy them owning property in the state and also investing in state or out. Actually this past 7 year period had been richly rewarding for investors in the area. So while this poll is interesting it’s not going to be representing the broader population.

For the ordinary folks who are not home owners and investors, the story might be different depending on where you stack up on the income and career scale.

As I look around me, I don’t see things slowing down. Highly paid young tech workers are marrying their own cohorts and creating “power income” households in the Bay Area. Companies are going IPO or getting bought out. Stocks of tech companies have risen ballooning the stock equity component of people’s income. It’s not uncommon to see young couples in their early 30s making a combined income of 4 -500k, So while prices rise, as is the purchasing power in many parts of the population.

But, I will say that the story is dramatically different for those at the lower end of the income scale. Teachers, social workers, non tech jobs, blue collar workers etc. I think we have deeper problems in that segment in terms of affordability. So the options are either to find housing further out in the area or simple look for other options. But even for this segment jobs are a plenty here. This is where the tech community and tech royalty in particular can stand up and help.

Net/ net: I think people at the lower end of the income scale might have an incentive to move but even they may not given family ties, kids etc. But handful will and should move esp if their incomes are location agnostic.

Also people moving does not equal to money moving! Likely a lot more money is moving in, as more educated people moving in the area.

Originally posted by @Karen Margrave :

I was born and raised in CA. It's so heartbreaking to see what is happening to it.  A recent poll says that 46% of the people plan on leaving the bay area. Let's do our own poll (FOR CALIFORNIANS or those that recently left in the past 5 years) 

  • Do you live in California? 
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years?
  • If so, where?
  • Will you be staying or leaving? 
  • Why?
  • What is your full time income producing job?  
Originally posted by @David Song :

It looks like most Californians are staying, rather than leaving, based on this poll results.

What concerns me is that ca seniors who retired and still want to stay here, which resulted in lack of inventory in Bay Area. Younger professionals moving to Bay Area can not find houses and had to compete against each other.

Therefore, the problem is not people leaving ca, but people refusing to leave even when it makes sense to leave. Contrary to the fake news.

California voters will have a chance to change the system this November:

https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_13_Tax_Transfer_Initiative_(2018)

I considered staying in California and transferring my Prop 13 property tax basis to another home in an area where I could do so, but decided instead to leave the state.  My lot got converted to a higher and better use (with a reassessed property tax basis) when the buyer rehabbed my house into a McMansion.

Every one of you fell for the clickbait title and the false premise of the op.

No survey has said that people are fleeing California and no survey has said 46% are planning to leave. 

So the question you are answering is fake.

2 seconds of research shows the question was have you ever considered leaving. Hell I am shocked it wasn't 90%. I have considered whether I would go to Mars.

It was a stupid survey designed to mislead and a stupid post and everyone fell for it. Jesus what has become of us?  The gullibility of humans is staggering.

@Sam Josh , no doubt there are a lot of people making big incomes in the Bay Area but they are still a small percentage.
The same in L.A there are some making a lot in the film industry and increasingly tech too but they are a minority of the population. Of course a lot of high paid lawyers , business owners too .

California used to make more financial sense for middle class people . Both my grandparents were teachers and they lived in a part of L.A that is now an exclusive area , homes now sell for $2-3 million and up.
My grandma sold at the worst time , during the crash .. but that’s another story .

There are many other parts of the city where it was lower middle class /middle class living there but it wasn’t a big deal to live there but now some of those neighborhoods are called “Silicon Beach” tech isn’t the only reason prices are high but it’s definitely helped . I read recently that many of these young techies have high incomes but a good amount are borrowing against their stock options , otherwise they wouldn’t be able to afford these homes either .

There is a lot of talk and promises of affordable housing and while more might be built it’ll still be like a lotto to get it . Politicians use the promise of affordable housing to keep people voting for them . Best and quickest option for those priced out is to move .

Originally posted by @Sam Josh :

As I look around me, I don’t see things slowing down. Highly paid young tech workers are marrying their own cohorts and creating “power income” households in the Bay Area. Companies are going IPO or getting bought out. Stocks of tech companies have risen ballooning the stock equity component of people’s income. It’s not uncommon to see young couples in their early 30s making a combined income of 4 -500k, So while prices rise, as is the purchasing power in many parts of the population.

I predict someday we will see Peak Bay Area. I don't know when, but it makes sense to make money while you can.

Peak Detroit occured in the 1950s and Valley New York City occured in the 1970s. The press slanted this situation as the triumph of Industrial America over Financial America. The wind has since shifted.

In the early 1800s, New York State financed the building of the Erie Canal, which kicked off the westward expansion of American commerce. Today, that swath of land is part of the much larger Rust Belt.

After the dot-com crash, some Bay Area cars displayed the bumper sticker: Please God, Just One More Bubble

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2004-08-15/commentary-please-god-just-one-more-bubble

The big joke from financial history is: This time is different

Originally posted by @Karen Margrave :

I was born and raised in CA. It's so heartbreaking to see what is happening to it.  A recent poll says that 46% of the people plan on leaving the bay area. Let's do our own poll (FOR CALIFORNIANS or those that recently left in the past 5 years) 

  • Do you live in California? 
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years?
  • If so, where?
  • Will you be staying or leaving? 
  • Why?
  • What is your full time income producing job?  
  • Yes for 3 more days.
  • Yes
  • Born and raised in Los Angeles and lived in Sacramento and Santa Rosa.
  • Leaving in 3 days, going to Austin Texas
  • For new opportunities and experiences and lower cost of living
  • Full-time Real Estate Investor and Realtor, previously, an Accountant.

For what it's worth, my opinion is that I don't think California is going bust anytime soon.  I think it will always be a desirable place to live and do business just based on the weather alone, so that will always draw people to CA.  

Also, all those people who say they "plan on" leaving are most likely  just paying lip service to leaving, almost like how everyone you meet says they want to invest in real estate or flip houses, because it's sounds so cool.  It just sounds good to talk about or fantasize about or even to threaten about, if you're mad at "the man" or the system or your job or the county or...whatever you're mad at. These people never actually go anywhere, though, they just talk.

Do you live in California? Yes, Los Angeles area

Have you lived in California in the past 5 years? I moved back to CA in late 2016, before that was in NYC for 5 years or so, and before that, been in CA since I was 3 years old. 

Will you be staying or leaving? Love to travel abroad and in the US (and invest elsewhere as well as here), but I'll be staying. 

Why? Lots of reasons. I mainly grew up here and my family and lots of friends are here. Love the climate, outdoors activities, like hiking (even something indoors like going to the gym, I feel more motivated to do it here than I did in cold NYC weather) and beach. Love the variety of food, cultures and mix of people. I feel like for what I do, professional opportunities are strong. 

That's not to say I agree with everything our politicians do, or that I always like the amount of taxes and regulation here, but I think that overall, those negatives outweigh the rest. No plans of leaving, though again, for real estate deals I'll look in any market that meets my criteria, but personal preference of where to live is a different matter. 

What is your full time income producing job? Attorney by training, co-manage a credit repair and restoration company, plus income-producing real estate (just started that in the past year). 

  • Do you live in California?  Yep
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years?  Yes Indeed
  • If so, where?  South Los Angeles
  • Will you be staying or leaving?  Leaving
  • Why? We have an opportunity in Mobile, Alabama
  • What is your full time income producing job?  Commercial Real Estate Broker

I love Cali and was born and raised here.  But the more I have an opportunity to travel the states the more I realize the higher likelihood of scaling in smaller markets.  It took us 9 months to find a duplex that made sense in Los Angeles.  We were lucky to find one, but that's a lot of time.  I've always wondered what it would be like to be a big fish in a little pond rather than small fish in a big pond.  

@ Roger Steciak.

It’s not different this time except that we are bouncing off the deepest recession in modern times on the back of low interest rates and heavy
doses of QE. Bluntly those apply just as much to other parts of the country as they do to the Bay Area. The Bay Area is benefiting from all that stimulus plus the digitization of the world. That won’t of course last forever and new trends will take over.

As for “peak tech”, we have see that happen over and over again. For example, In the early days the world wanted to go work for FairChild Semi. Then it was the likes of 3Com and Sun Microsystems and HP that were the hot companies oh also there was Silicon Graphics, Siebel Systems, Peoplesoft and Sybase. This era was replaced by the likes of eBay and Yahoo who were then pushed aside by the likes of Google, Apple, Facebook and Salesforce.

So if you notice there is a difference here between a rapidly innovating and disrupting tech ecosystem model we have here in Silicon Valley versus what we have in the great city of Detroit where we had 3 automobile giants who refused to innovate.

So I will buy into the bubble and the recession but I don’t think that the DNA of the valley matches the DNA of Detroit as a fair comparison.

I'll take a stab at this survey. 

  • Do you live in California?
    > Yes
  • Have you lived in California in the past 5 years?
    > Yes, but a NYC transplant. I've only been here for 9 years. 
  • If so, where?
    > Newark/Fremont then Antioch/Brentwood (East Bay, basically)
  • Will you be staying or leaving?
    > I am planning on leaving, but not until I take full advantage of the FMLA benefits for our (planned) 2nd child.
  • Why?
    > Cost of living is too high. Targeting Raleigh, NC for an overall better life. My RE investments are all going to be in the southeast as well, so it just makes sense. 
  • What is your full time income producing job?
    > Sr. Mgr at a Tech Startup

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